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cs.AIcs.IR Amirhossein Aghaei, Liangyan Li, Shiyi Yang et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Current agentic systems often hallucinate or drift during multi-turn reasoning because they rely on unstructured token-level generation. This paper proposes SGUR, a training-free framework that grounds multi-step inference in structured hypothesis spaces using partial graph alignment and active information gain. Evaluated on a sequential medical-diagnosis benchmark derived from PrimeKG, the results suggest that tighter structural discipline can partially offset the need for ever-larger language models.

Scaling large language models has substantially improved linguistic fluency, yet reliable autonomous agents require more than fluent generation. In multi-turn inference, current agentic systems often produce semantically plausible but structurally ungrounded reasoning, especially under incomplete observations. We propose Structure-Grounded Uncertainty Reduction (SGUR), a training-free framework that complements token-level generation with active uncertainty reduction over structured hypothesis spaces. SGUR represents incomplete observations as a query graph and aligns them with candidate hypothesis graphs through a prior-weighted partial graph matching mechanism, where database-derived empirical priors assign greater importance to decision-relevant relations rather than treating all graph edges uniformly. The resulting inference state is iteratively refined by an active information-gain strategy that selects the next most informative node to query, systematically pruning the candidate space. We instantiate SGUR on a challenging PrimeKG-derived sequential medical diagnosis benchmark, demonstrating that structural grounding can partially substitute for model scale: starting from only two observed symptoms, SGUR achieves 92.5% Hit@3, outperforming the strongest Graph-RAG baseline by 9.4 percentage points while using approximately 5x fewer tokens. Notably, SGUR enables smaller backbone models to match or exceed the performance of models up to 10x larger, suggesting that structural grounding provides a more robust and efficient paradigm for scaling agent performance than relying exclusively on increasing model size.
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cs.HCcs.AI Lei Fan, Fangxue Liu · Oct 22, 2026

This mixed-methods study examines how university students perceive their generative AI skills changing over time and whether those perceived trajectories connect to shifts in learning practices and academic outcomes. Using a retrospective survey of 313 students and interviews with 18 across disciplines, the authors identify heterogeneous developmental patterns—most commonly rapid early improvement followed by a plateau—and find that self-reported academic gains are linked to assignment-process adaptation rather than to a specific trajectory. The work highlights uneven growth across skill domains and signals that institutions should tailor support beyond generic tool training, though the cross-sectional design cannot establish actual longitudinal change.

Understanding how university students perceive the development of their generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) skills over time can clarify how GenAI use relates to learning and academic outcomes. This study examined perceived skill-development trajectories, changes in learning practices, and associated academic gains using a retrospective questionnaire with 313 analyzed responses and interviews with 18 students across subject areas. Descriptive and comparative analyses and exploratory structural equation modeling (SEM) were integrated with thematic analysis. Perceived developmental trajectories were heterogeneous: 34.2% of students reported rapid early improvement followed by a plateau, 28.4% steady improvement, and 21.1% delayed acceleration. Development was also uneven across skills, with improvement in evaluating GenAI outputs perceived as more challenging; assignments were the most frequently selected driver of skill growth. Interviews further indicated increasingly specific prompting, tailored verification, and selective delegation, although some students reported stable routines, dependence, skipped reasoning, or improvements attributable partly to better GenAI tools. Academic gains were reported more often for assignments than for examinations. The SEM indicated a positive indirect association between perceived skill growth and academic gains through adaptation of assignment processes, whereas academic gains did not clearly differ across developmental trajectory groups after multiplicity correction. The findings suggest that perceived GenAI skill development varies in both trajectory and skill domain and is associated with changes in learning practices and differentiated academic benefits.
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cs.CVcs.AI Minhyuk Seo, Minjae Lee, Chaeeun Lee et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Multimodal in-context learning remains weak because MLLMs often hallucinate and fail to ground textual outputs in the visual evidence provided in demonstrations.
This work argues that the root bottleneck is poor visual grounding rather than a lack of ICL-specific training data.
The authors propose ProCoRe, which uses proposition-level contrastive reinforcement learning on non-ICL image–caption pairs to sharpen fine-grained visual discrimination.
The result is stronger multimodal ICL without catastrophic forgetting, plus a new personalized-captioning benchmark that forces models to rely on demonstrations instead of lexical priors.

LLMs have shown strong in-context learning (ICL) capability, but extending it to Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) remains challenging. Prior multimodal ICL methods often rely on ICL-specific datasets for additional training or task vector extraction, which can improve performance on the same ICL benchmark used for adaptation. However, they do not generalize well to other benchmarks and often induce forgetting in previously well-solved tasks. For this reason, we identify 'visual grounding' as the key bottleneck in multimodal ICL; MLLMs often fail to attend to task-relevant visual evidence in demonstrations, instead over-relying on textual cues and producing hallucinated outputs. To address this, we propose ProCoRe to enhance visual grounding through contrastive reinforcement learning on multimodal contrastive data for improving multimodal ICL. ProCoRe generates captions for contrastive image pairs, decomposes them into propositions, and optimizes contrastive rewards that encourage alignment with corresponding images while discouraging mismatched ones. Despite never seeing ICL-formatted training examples, ProCoRe improves average multimodal ICL classification accuracy by 5.6% and captioning ROUGE-L by 13.8% over the off-the-shelf Qwen-VL-3-8B model, outperforming ICL-data-dependent state of the arts across benchmarks. Finally, we introduce PICL, a personalized multimodal ICL captioning benchmark that tests whether MLLMs genuinely understand visual demonstrations rather than relying on pre-trained semantic priors.
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cs.CRcs.AIcs.LG Lohith Srikanth Pentapalli, Josette Riep, Justin Ouwerkerk et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper tackles the closed-world problem in cybersecurity intrusion detection, where supervised models trained on benign and insider-threat labels fail when confronted with entirely novel botnet activation attacks at test time. The core idea is a hybrid fuzzy ensemble that couples a gradient-optimized Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) classifier for known suspicious behaviors with a Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) module that flags out-of-distribution (OoD) samples via a raw Min Distance metric rather than traditional membership scores. The work is relevant because it directly targets the operational reality that security operations centers must detect attack vectors never seen during training, and it attempts to do so with an interpretable, rule-based architecture rather than a black-box neural network.

A fundamental paradox plagues the deployment of Machine Learning in cybersecurity: supervised models generalize poorly to novel, Out-of-Distribution (OoD) attacks, whereas unsupervised models often suffer from poor separability, leading to unmanageable false-alarm rates. This challenge is exemplified by the BETH dataset, a kernel-level benchmark in which the training data consists solely of benign and suspicious insider behaviors, whereas the test set consists almost entirely of novel botnet activation attacks. To bridge this detection gap, we propose a Hybrid Fuzzy Ensemble that synergizes the precision of supervised learning with the adaptability of unsupervised clustering. Our architecture integrates a gradient-optimized Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy classifier to act as an expert on known insider threats, with a parallel Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) module to detect geometric anomalies. A critical finding of our research is that traditional fuzzy membership scores degrade in high-dimensional feature spaces due to the curse of dimensionality. We overcome this by introducing a robust Min Distance metric that exploits the raw geometric isolation of botnet activation attacks. This approach yields a state-of-the-art AUROC of 0.9951 on the BETH test set, outperforming the original Isolation Forest baseline by 17.1%. By combining near-perfect OoD detection with the intrinsic interpretability of fuzzy logic, our framework offers a viable path toward robust, transparent, and autonomous network defense.
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cs.AI Zhixin Lin, Dongliang Xu, Jungang Li et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Personalized mobile GUI agents must decide both how user preferences alter execution and when they apply along a trajectory. Existing benchmarks only report aggregate task success, obscuring where and why personalization fails. This paper introduces PrefDiag-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark with 318 end-to-end tasks and 1,664 stage-wise probes that categorize preferences into five execution types and pinpoint bottlenecks in evidence selection and trigger recognition. The result is a reproducible tool set for moving beyond coarse success rates toward targeted improvement of personalization capabilities.

Unlike conventional GUI agents, personalized GUI agents require user preferences to guide sequential execution over changing GUI states. This raises two challenges: determining HOW each preference should alter execution strategy and WHEN it should take effect along the interaction trajectory. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate overall task success, offering limited insight into these questions. We introduce PrefDiag-Bench with two components: (1) a categorization of preferences into five types, characterizing HOW they affect execution; and (2) a stage-wise diagnostic framework with 1,664 probes, tracing WHEN preferences should take effect and where failures occur. We evaluate eleven GUI agent systems, including end-to-end agents and agentic workflows, under two forms of user context: explicit user profiles and behavioral memory logs. Although existing agents achieve relatively high completion rates on non-personalized tasks, performance is substantially lower on preference-personalized tasks. Even the best-performing model, Seed-2.0-Pro, achieves only 47.17% on Process preferences under explicit user profiles. Agents struggle particularly with Ranking and Process preferences. Further analysis reveals two key capability bottlenecks: selecting relevant evidence from user history and recognizing when preferences should take effect during execution. Controlled interventions that explicitly provide relevant evidence improve end-to-end task success by up to 7.06%. PrefDiag-Bench offers a more systematic evaluation of GUI agents' personalization capabilities beyond overall task success. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Zhixin-L/PrefDiag-Bench.
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stat.MEcs.AIcs.LG Xiaojing Sun, Yuhan Zeng, Xiao Wang · Oct 22, 2026

AI agents that act as statistical analysts evolve through model upgrades, prompt edits, and new tools, but each change risks inflating Type I error. This paper introduces continual validation: before any update is deployed, it is frozen and tested on newly simulated null data using exact binomial confidence bounds with a decaying per-update risk budget. The result is a lifetime guarantee that no invalid version passes, which matters because classical fixed-procedure guarantees break under adaptive, open-ended evolution.

AI agents increasingly act as analysts whose decision can often be cast as hypothesis tests. Classical tests control the Type I error rate, the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis, for fixed procedures. However, AI analysts introduce internal randomness and can evolve continuously over time. As AI analysts evolve, the risk of approving versions with Type I error rates above the target can accumulate, and adaptive use of evaluation feedback can lead to overfitting. We introduce continual validation, which evaluates each proposed AI analyst version before deployment using simulated data under the null hypothesis, with scenarios that can be randomized and expanded over time. We prove that, regardless of how updates are chosen or how many are proposed, the lifetime probability of ever deploying a version whose Type I error rate exceeds the allowed level remains bounded. This guarantees that every subsequent decision controls the Type I error rate at the target level across these scenarios. At the same time, updates with sufficiently low Type I error rates pass validation with high probability, allowing the analyst to continuously improve its performance without sacrificing rigor. In two examples involving evolving AI analysts for bioequivalence studies and product A/B tests, Type I error rates reached 0.098 and 0.183 without continual validation, compared with at most 0.045 and 0.044 with it, while retaining 82% and 96% of the power from optimally selected valid updates.
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cs.AIcs.CLcs.MA Yebo Feng, Jingyang Dai, Liangrui Pan et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Steward is a multi-agent LLM trading system designed to act on live Web data while keeping its safety constraints intact as it learns. The paper introduces governed self-evolution: a deterministic gate and typed proposal system let the agent rewrite its own prompts, but an invariant core of risk rules, order arithmetic, and discipline-agent prompts is unreachable by any self-edit. In a five-month live paper-trading deployment the authors record every input, output, and grading event to evaluate whether the architecture survives real market noise, prompt injection, and its own reflection loop. The release of the full code, prompts, and replay harness makes this one of the most transparent live-agent studies to date.

LLM agents that act on live Web data must combine heterogeneous evidence, remember what they have done and improve from outcomes without weakening their own safeguards. We study this problem in autonomous investing, where every action is irreversible and based on untrusted Web content. We present Steward, a multi-agent LLM system that draws the boundary of self-evolution in its type system. First, nine role-specialised agents decide jointly: four analysts read news feeds, SEC filings, macroeconomic series and market data and emit typed reports, from which a Portfolio Manager sets target positions that a protected Risk Manager audits. Second, a seven-layer shared memory, assembled by code from the system's own record, gives each decision its position context, the market narrative, calibration and the agent's past decisions. Third, the system improves itself by review: code grades every trade and forecast nightly and writes the grades into memory, and each quarter a reflector proposes prompt learnings that a deterministic gate applies reversibly and replay of recorded inputs verifies. All three operate around an invariant core of order arithmetic, risk rules and discipline-agent prompts that no self-edit can reach. In a five-month live deployment (102 trading days, 1,632 LLM calls), the system contained a 24.6% sector drawdown to a 0.3% loss; in replay of its recorded inputs, a single model given the same raw data traded more and lost 1.35 points against the market over five days where the joint design showed no significant loss, and no injected instruction was followed; and a 2015-2026 backtest shows the core alone lowering the maximum drawdown under all 50 random entry policies. The reflector traced the dominant failure to its root cause, and the gate applied a learning that the agent adopted on trigger evenings and on no control evening. Code: https://github.com/yebof/quant-agent
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cs.GTcs.LG Manoj Saravanan, Rohit Kumar Salla, Shrikar Reddy Kota · Oct 14, 2026

Pairwise comparison data power modern preference learning, but disagreement in such data can mean persistent heterogeneity, random noise, or hidden non-binary responses. This paper develops a nonparametric latent semantic model with three querywise quantities—aggregate preference $\mu_q$, persistent disagreement $\tau_q$, and non-binary mass $\alpha_q$—and proves sharp identifiability frontiers. Anonymous binary feedback point-identifies only $\mu_q$, while same-annotator repeats identify $\tau_q$ via covariance and abstention identifies $\alpha_q$ directly; only their combination recovers the full semantic triple. The results imply that semantics-aware decisions like denoising versus personalization cannot be justified from anonymous forced-choice data alone.

Pairwise comparison data are a standard supervision signal in preference learning, but disagreement in such data can reflect stable latent heterogeneity, ephemeral stochasticity, or non-binary responses hidden by a forced-choice interface. We study which of these semantic distinctions are identifiable from the feedback channel itself. We introduce a nonparametric latent semantic model with three querywise quantities: aggregate directional preference $\mu_q$, persistent disagreement $\tau_q$, and non-binary mass $\alpha_q$. Under the anonymous binary channel, we prove an exact semantic fiber theorem: $\mu_q$ is point-identified, whereas $(\tau_q, \alpha_q)$ vary over an explicit feasible region compatible with the same binary law. Same-annotator repeats identify $\tau_q$ through a covariance identity, abstention-enabled feedback identifies $\alpha_q$ directly, and together they point-identify the full semantic triple. We also derive finite-sample estimators, nonasymptotic concentration bounds, and semantics-aware action-recovery guarantees, and validate the theory on theorem-matched synthetic data.
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cs.CVcs.LG Tom\'a\v{s} \v{C}\'i\v{z}ek, Matej Straka, Illia Volkov et al. · Oct 14, 2026

SAM3RL replaces the hand-crafted FIFO memory rule in SAM-based visual trackers with a lightweight controller learned by reinforcement learning. It frames memory-bank eviction as a Markov Decision Process and trains a 3.2 M-parameter MLP with PPO on bounding-box LaSOT sequences to maximize tracking quality. The resulting policy sets a new state of the art on 10 of 12 benchmarks for both SAM 2 and SAM 3 backbones, while remaining fully online and running without extra feature extraction.

Segment Anything Model 3 (SAM 3) is a foundation model for image and video segmentation that sets the state of the art in visual object tracking. Its tracker, inherited from SAM 2, stores information from past frames in a memory bank, managed by a simple First-In-First-Out rule, allowing temporal consistency in complex videos. Several recent methods improve SAM 2 with hand-crafted memory update rules, each targeting a specific failure mode, such as distractors, occlusions, or object motion. However, their gains transfer only partially to the stronger SAM 3 backbone. We instead present a more general, data-driven approach that frames memory control as a sequential decision-making task. SAM3RL is an extension of the SAM 3 tracker with a lightweight memory controller, trained by reinforcement learning, that decides which frames enter the memory bank in order to maximize tracking performance. SAM3RL sets a new state of the art on 10 of 12 tracking and video object segmentation benchmarks, outperforming all hand-crafted rules without any runtime overhead. The same approach applied to SAM 2 gives SAM2RL, which outperforms hand-crafted rules on 9 of the 12 benchmarks, showing the generality of our method across model generations.
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cs.LG Zhiyuan Zhou, Sergey Levine · Oct 14, 2026

Offline RL promises to outperform the data but is notoriously unstable, whereas imitation learning is stable yet bounded by data quality. This paper introduces Advantage Guidance (AG), a policy extraction method that retains a simple supervised-learning objective—training a flow policy conditioned on advantage estimates—while correcting the failure mode where naïve conditioning is ignored by the network. At test time, AG uses a derived contrastive diffusion guidance to target the KL-regularized optimal policy $\pi_{\mathrm{KL}}^*(a \mid s) \propto \hat{\pi}(a \mid s)\exp(A(s,a)/\beta)$. On 26 long-horizon sparse-reward manipulation tasks, the method outperforms strong actor-critic, supervised-learning, and diffusion-guidance baselines.

Reinforcement learning (RL) holds the promise of learning a policy that can outperform what is shown in the data. However, in practice, such systems suffer from instability and hyperparameter sensitivity. In contrast, supervised learning provides a stable and scalable training objective, but is fundamentally limited by the quality of the demonstrated behavior. In this paper, we ask whether we can perform policy optimization with something as simple and stable as supervised learning but as performant as RL. Unfortunately, naively training the policy with supervised learning and conditioning on future rewards or advantages typically underperform dedicated RL methods. We introduce a new policy extraction method, Advantage Guidance, that retains the simple supervised learning structure with advantage conditioning while outperforming prior RL methods through effective conditional training and contrastive diffusion guidance during sampling. We show that Advantage Guidance can significantly improve a model's ability to respond to conditional advantage signals, and the contrastive guidance during sampling can use the learned advantage-conditioned policy to target the KL-regularized optimal policy. Empirically, we find that Advantage Guidance significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art RL methods on 26 long-horizon, sparse reward tasks across datasets with varying degrees of optimality.
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cs.LG Rocco Zaccagnino, Martina Girolamo, Alberto Lombardi et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Population health stratification traditionally groups patients by clinical complexity, yet these descriptive frameworks offer little guidance on how to prioritize limited care resources. PROMETHEUS reformulates this task as a multi-treatment causal ranking problem: instead of estimating precisely calibrated treatment effects for every patient, it learns a global priority ordering over patient–profile opportunities by combining cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes with a Siamese contrastive neural network. This matters because it separates clinical need from actionability, allowing health systems to identify which eligible patients should receive more intensive care first when capacity is constrained.

Population health stratification frameworks, such as the Italian DM77, organize patients by clinical need and care pathways but offer limited guidance on which care changes to prioritize under constrained resources. We present PROMETHEUS (Proactive Resource Optimization through Multi-treatment Effect-based Targeting in Healthcare Environments Using Stratification), a framework that formulates population health stratification as a multi-treatment causal ranking problem. Its objective is to order eligible patient-treatment opportunities by expected incremental benefit rather than obtain perfectly calibrated individual treatment-effect estimates. Each clinically admissible care intensification is compared with maintaining the patient's current pathway. Treatments are learned jointly to produce a globally comparable ranking across patients and care profiles, within domains sharing a reference condition, outcome, follow-up horizon, and benefit scale. This separates clinical need, treatment benefit, and resource-constrained allocation. PROMETHEUS combines doubly robust causal signals with a Siamese neural ranking model and contrastive representation pretraining. The shared representation captures similarities across care transitions, supporting prioritization under capacity constraints. Synthetic experiments and semi-synthetic experiments using real administrative covariates from ASL Benevento evaluate ranking quality, allocation value, robustness, and failure modes. The results support the framework's ability to recover generated benefit orderings and prioritize care opportunities in the evaluated settings. PROMETHEUS provides a preclinical approach to actionable stratification; validation with observed treatment-outcome data is required before clinical use.
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cond-mat.mtrl-scics.LGphysics.chem-ph Hongrui Sheng, Shutian Liang, Reid A. Coyle et al. · Oct 14, 2026

ActMOF addresses the challenge of optimizing metal-organic framework (MOF) syntheses when experimental data are sparse and outcomes noisy, by introducing an experimentally grounded benchmark for comparing active-learning policies. Starting from only 95 measured microwave syntheses of an aluminum-carboxylate MOF, the authors emulate a landscape of over six million encoded conditions and evaluate 39 policies—Gaussian processes, tree ensembles, and large language models—before transferring the best strategy to six wet-lab syntheses. The demonstration that all six campaigns yielded crystalline products within a 12-experiment budget makes the work relevant as both a reproducible testbed and a proof of concept for transferable, AI-guided reticular chemistry.

Reticular chemistry allows metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) to be designed from their building units, yet their synthesis remains constrained by sparse experimental data, noisy crystallization outcomes, and the absence of benchmarks for comparing active-learning strategies. While data-driven approaches such as Bayesian optimization (BO) can improve synthesis success rates, selecting appropriate optimizers beforehand for mapping MOF crystallization landscapes remains largely empirical. Here we present ActMOF, an experiment-grounded benchmark for comparing search strategies in aluminum-carboxylate MOF synthesis. ActMOF is emulated from experimentally measured microwave syntheses with each encoded condition assigned a crystallinity index calculated based on diffraction peak intensity and full width at half-maximum. By benchmarking policies guided by Gaussian processes (GP), tree ensembles and large language models (LLM), ActMOF placed the GP family among the leading policies for active learning in sparse synthesis landscapes. It then demonstrated transferability by guiding the microwave synthesis of six reticularly related aluminum MOFs. All six campaigns gave crystalline products within a fixed budget of 12 experiments each, and established a reusable testbed for AI-driven MOF synthesis.
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cs.LG Zefeng He, Yunkai Chai, Xiaoyang Chen et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Looped Mixture-of-Experts models reuse parameters across depth, yet prior work treats each loop visit identically. This paper shows that loop visits learn strongly asymmetric residual scales—the first visit updates representations far less than the second—and proposes LatentLoop, which compresses the first pass into a latent sequence and reallocates saved FLOPs to model width. Extensive scaling experiments up to $7$B parameters show consistent validation and downstream gains, framing asymmetric compute allocation as a principled way to improve looped MoE efficiency.

Looped Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models combine parameter reuse with sparse computation to improve performance under matched budgets. Prior work demonstrates that different loop visits can play different roles even when they share parameters. To probe the contributions of different loop visits, we learn separate residual coefficients in a model that applies a shared block twice, observing a smaller scale in the first visit. Fixed coefficient experiments show that reducing the first visit's scale preserves or improves performance, whereas the same reductions to the second hurt it. This asymmetry motivates us to explore asymmetric compute allocation. We propose \textbf{LatentLoop}, which compresses the first visit's sequence, retains full resolution in the second, and reallocates saved computation to increase the hidden size. We further learn how strongly the first visit updates the full sequence, and share MoE weights across visits while using separate attention parameters to accommodate their different sequence resolutions. Across 15 configurations spanning 1.3B--7B parameters, with the largest budget exceeding $10^{21}$ FLOPs, LatentLoop consistently lowers validation NLL. At a fitted NLL of 1.988, predicted compute savings are 19.0\% and 7.9\% relative to vanilla MoE and the looped baseline. It also improves average scores on nine benchmarks at all sizes in 0-shot and 5-shot settings. These results suggest asymmetric compute allocation is a promising direction for looped MoE models.
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cs.LGstat.ML Timo Klein, Thomas Lang, Andrii Shkabrii et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Goal-conditioned RL in complex mazes suffers from a geometric mismatch: Euclidean embedding distances model straight-line proximity, yet walls can make actual route distances highly tree-like and deceptive. This paper introduces Hyperbolic CRL, a drop-in replacement of the critic's Euclidean distance with a hyperbolic geodesic distance on the hyperboloid. Its central finding is that this geometric alignment allows a depth-64 hyperbolic network to outperform a 1024-layer Euclidean baseline on hard humanoid maze tasks while training more than $12\times$ faster and using roughly $13\times$ fewer parameters.

Scaling self-supervised contrastive reinforcement learning (CRL) to 1000-layer Euclidean neural networks has enabled state-of-the-art goal-reaching performance, yet wall-clock time scales linearly with depth. We find that changing the geometry achieves stronger performance with far shallower networks. This matters in complex navigation environments, where walls can make route distance deviate substantially from Euclidean distance. In a U-shaped maze, we show that the longer the route, the more it deviates from Euclidean distance. Hyperbolic CRL addresses this mismatch by replacing Euclidean distances in CRL's contrastive objective with geodesic distances in hyperbolic space. On hard navigation tasks, inductive bias beats scale: depth 64 hyperbolic agents outperform 1024-layer-deep Euclidean networks while training more than $12 \times$ faster and using about $13 \times$ fewer parameters. We observe that hyperbolic agents behave qualitatively better in hard humanoid mazes, where they follow corridors to reach goals, whereas Euclidean agents try straight-line shortcuts over walls. Our results show that matching the representation geometry to the task can substitute for substantial network depth. Code is at https://github.com/Probabilistic-and-Interactive-ML/HypGCRL .
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cs.LG Jeffrey B. Lai, John Quinn, Anthony Bao et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Foundation models for dynamical systems can roll out unseen PDEs and ODEs, but it is unclear whether they genuinely learn in-context forecasting strategies or merely memorize. This paper proposes Test-Time Forecasting (TTF), a framework in which looped transformers use recurrent depth to perform gradient-descent iterations on a latent forecasting objective at inference time. A lightweight TTF model trained only for one-step prediction can generalize to harder, out-of-distribution system dynamics during autoregressive rollout, suggesting that recurrent depth offers a principled, parameter-efficient path to in-context learning for continuous dynamics.

Foundation models for dynamical systems can forecast unseen partial differential equations (PDEs), ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and time series during inference. However, it remains an open question whether these foundation models truly learn generalizable in-context forecasting strategies. We show that looped transformers are capable of emulating propagators for dynamical systems in-context by first establishing a link between linear attention and (extended) dynamic mode decomposition. We then generalize this insight into the $\textit{Test-Time Forecasting}$ (TTF) framework in which a one-step forecaster leverages iterations of gradient descent as recurrent depth. We demonstrate that lightweight TTF models trained on ODEs and PDEs generalize to out-of-distribution system dynamics during autoregressive rollout after being trained for one-step prediction. Our results reinforce TTF as a theoretically motivated framework for designing recurrent depth models capable of forecasting unseen dynamical systems at test-time.
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cs.LGcs.NI Calvin Jary, Nafiseh Kahani · Oct 14, 2026

Predicting which cellular region a mobile user will visit next lets operators cache content and allocate resources proactively, yet a predictor that never abstains commits to choices even when its evidence is weak.
This work applies MetaModelSelect, a lightweight post-hoc metamodel that scores the trustworthiness of a frozen RNN's top-1 next-location decision using only its output logits: a learned embedding of the predicted region, the four largest softmax probabilities, and a global concentration statistic.
By filtering predictions through this learned correctness score rather than retraining the backbone, the paper shows how to trade coverage for selective risk in a compact, deployable wrapper.

Next-location prediction can support proactive mobile-network decisions, but acting on unreliable predictions can waste resources. We apply MetaModelSelect, a lightweight post-hoc confidence metamodel, to selective cellular next-location prediction. The mobility-specific model combines a learned embedding of the predicted location with the four largest softmax probabilities and Softmax Concentration. It learns whether a frozen recurrent neural network's top-1 prediction is correct, using only its outputs and without retraining the backbone. On path-balanced Changchun cellular mobility trajectories, we evaluate backbones trained with cross-entropy (CE) and self-adaptive training plus entropy minimization (SAT+EM), comparing against eight scalar confidence scores, two location-aware lookup methods, and a raw-logit multilayer perceptron. Relative to maximum softmax probability, MetaModelSelect achieves mean per-run reductions in area under the risk--coverage curve (AURC), excess AURC (E-AURC), and area under the generalized risk--coverage curve (AUGRC) of 2.6%, 4.2%, and 3.0% for CE, and 2.0%, 3.3%, and 1.9% for SAT+EM. It also achieves the lowest reported mean risk at every evaluated partial coverage. The results show that MetaModelSelect improves confidence ranking in this mobility setting while leaving the underlying location predictor unchanged.
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cs.CLcs.CYcs.LG Zhangqi Duan, Simon Woodhead, Maya Miller-Vedam et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Traditional student models only use responses to standalone questions, ignoring the rich, fine-grained evidence embedded in tutoring dialogues. This paper proposes URF-QD, a framework that rewrites tutor-posed mathematical subtasks as self-contained questions and models them jointly with original items on a shared item response theory scale. The key novelty is a relative-order regularization that uses tutor pedagogical moves to constrain consecutive subtask difficulties, enabling dynamic tracking of student ability across both questions and dialogues. The authors show consistent improvements on two real-world math datasets, though the approach leans heavily on LLM annotations and modest sample sizes.

Existing student models in educational applications largely focus on student responses to questions. However, as tutoring becomes more accessible at large scale, it is important to analyze dialogues between tutors and students, which may reveal fine-grained evidence on student knowledge. In this work, we propose a unified framework that models both student responses to questions and tutor-posed subtasks during dialogues on a shared item response theory (IRT) scale. We first identify mathematical subtasks in tutoring dialogues, rewrite them into self-contained questions, and identify the correctness of student responses to these subtasks. We then develop an IRT framework that estimates question/subtask difficulty from text, tracks students' evolving abilities across question-answering and dialogue interactions, and a novel method to leverages tutor moves between consecutive subtasks to regularize their difficulty values. We evaluate our framework on two real-world math education datasets containing both human- and AI-tutored dialogues. Results show that our framework outperforms strong baselines on both question difficulty prediction and response correctness prediction.
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cs.LG Quoc-Anh Hoang Nguyen, Xinyu Zhang, Daolang Huang et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Batch black-box optimization requires selecting many parallel queries across only a few expensive rounds, yet conventional Bayesian optimization suffers from costly joint acquisition maximization and per-task surrogate refitting. This paper proposes Flow Matching for Thompson-Sampling Refinement (FMTR), an amortized approach that offline-learns a continuous, history-conditioned proposal distribution over query locations from which variable-size batches can be directly sampled at test time with fixed parameters. By marrying in-context adaptation to a generative flow model, FMTR aims to eliminate online acquisition optimization while preserving sample efficiency.

Batch black-box optimization is important for expensive systems where many candidates can be evaluated in parallel, yet only a few rounds of evaluation are affordable. In this regime, effective batch construction must identify multiple promising regions while avoiding redundant evaluations, and conventional Bayesian optimization can require increasingly difficult batch-selection procedures as the batch size grows. We introduce Flow Matching for Thompson-Sampling Refinement (FMTR), an amortized approach that learns offline a continuous, history-conditioned proposal distribution from which variable-size batches can be sampled. FMTR is trained offline by conditional flow matching on Thompson-sampling argmaxes refined toward high-value regions via a horizon-dependent Langevin pushforward map, adapting the exploration-exploitation tradeoff over the optimization horizon. At test time, the model parameters remain fixed and batch generation requires neither task-specific surrogate refitting nor numerical acquisition optimization. FMTR achieves strong performance against batch BO and in-context baselines on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, while substantially reducing the computational cost of batch selection.
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cs.LG Tongxi Wang · Oct 14, 2026

This paper studies whether learning an epsilon-optimal average-reward policy from a single continuing trajectory must pay an extra navigation cost compared with generative access. It develops an adaptive algorithm that learns a low-cost sampling allocation via inverse-count exploration and converts nonuniform samples into an all-state policy certificate using a transient-corrected quantile bound. For broad model classes and sufficiently high accuracy, it proves that the worst-case sample complexity matches the generative lower bound up to logarithmic factors, removing the extra diameter factor that plagued prior continuing-access bounds.

In reinforcement learning, an agent must explore an unknown environment to learn how to make good decisions. Unlike methods that can freely sample any state--action pair, an agent learning from a single trajectory must spend additional time navigating between states. It is therefore natural to expect that learning from a single trajectory requires more experience. In this paper, we show that this additional cost is not always necessary. For average-reward reinforcement learning, we develop an algorithm that learns where to collect information while ensuring that the required samples can be obtained efficiently. We establish an upper bound on the number of interactions needed to identify a near-optimal policy. Furthermore, we prove a matching information theoretic lower bound, showing that, for a broad class of environments and at sufficiently high accuracy, learning from a single trajectory is no harder in the worst case than learning with unrestricted access to state action samples. Our results reveal that the additional complexity cost of navigation can be avoided by adapting information gathering requirements to how the environment provides information.
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cs.LG Junlin Liao, Harshit Kondle, Di Liu et al. · Oct 14, 2026

Vision-language models are moving onto battery-powered edge devices, yet their total-system energy footprint on NPU-equipped single-board computers has remained largely unmeasured. This paper presents a hardware-instrumented study of Qwen2-VL-2B-Instruct inference on a Raspberry Pi 5 with a Hailo-10H NPU and a Jetson Orin Nano Super, separating fixed request energy from per-token decode costs. It shows that NPU offloading cuts Pi energy per token by roughly two-thirds, that text generation dominates vision encoding at typical response lengths, and that the Pi-NPU and Orin-GPU stacks have comparable per-token energy with a crossover near 40 output tokens. The findings are practically useful for engineers choosing deployment stacks under power and thermal constraints.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are moving onto edge devices, but little is known about how much energy they draw on single-board computers with NPU or GPU accelerators, or where that energy goes. We measure total-system energy, latency, and thermal behavior of Qwen2-VL-2B-Instruct and its text-only sibling on a Raspberry Pi 5 with a Hailo-10H NPU and on a Jetson Orin Nano Super, on both CPU and accelerator, and separate the fixed energy of each request from the energy that grows with output length. Because the accelerators use different quantization and serving software, we compare deployment stacks rather than silicon. Three findings stand out. First, NPU offloading makes the Pi a much more efficient VLM platform: it cuts energy per generated token by about two-thirds, leaves the host CPU largely free, and avoids the thermal throttling that the CPU backend reaches in sustained use. Second, an image adds both fixed and per-token energy, but at typical response lengths generating the answer costs far more than processing the image. Third, the Jetson GPU favors short responses through its lower fixed cost per request, whereas the Pi NPU favors longer ones through its lower cost per output token; their energy curves cross near 40 output tokens.