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econ.GNcs.AIcs.CY Cristian Espinal Maya (Universidad Nacional de Colombia), Santiago Jim\'enez Londo\~no (Universidad EAFIT) · Oct 22, 2026

Most studies measure how much AI can speed up a task—exposure—rather than whether a worker can actually hand it off. This paper introduces the Agent Delegability Index (ADI), which rates all 18,796 O*NET tasks on a frozen, preregistered four-level delegation ladder, then maps them to ISCO-08 occupations and weights them by employment across 146 countries. By distinguishing partial from full delegation and tagging physical, accountability, trust, and access barriers, the authors reveal a steep income gradient in who can delegate: high-income countries have roughly twice the delegable employment share of low-income ones, driven mainly by the composition of work.

35.2% of task time in world employment is at least partly delegable to AI agents in 2026, and only 2.5% can be handed over in full. Existing measures score exposure to generative AI, mostly for the United States. We build the Agent Delegability Index (ADI): two language models rate all 18,796 O*NET 30.2 task statements on a frozen, preregistered rubric of delegation levels and barriers; tasks are mapped to 433 ISCO-08 unit groups and weighted by ILOSTAT employment in 146 countries. Four findings. First, delegable employment rises with income, from 22.5% in low-income to 48.7% in high-income countries, a slope of 7.23 percentage points per log point of GDP per capita. This delegation divide is compositional: the physical barrier dominates the jobs poorer countries employ most. Second, at the occupation level ADI tracks exposure closely (r = 0.93 with Eloundou et al. and 0.89 with Felten et al.), above the preregistered bound of 0.80; ADI adds delegation levels and barriers on top of exposure, for the world, not a new ranking of occupations. Third, full delegation is rare and peaks for tasks that take a human about twelve minutes (11.8 minutes). Fourth, the preregistered adoption gap is not supported: across 101 countries, delegability and observed AI usage correlate at r = 0.86, and the gap between them is not wider in middle-income countries (p = 0.27). Model agreement is kappa = 0.77; a blind human rating of 300 tasks agrees with the model consensus at kappa = 0.85, and an agentic panel with web search at kappa = 0.87. We release the index, the atlas, the prompts and an MCP server at https://github.com/Cespial/delegation-divide.
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cs.AIcs.CRcs.HC Simiao Ren, Xingyu Shen, Tommy Duong et al. · Oct 22, 2026

AI coding agents can now edit native PDF financial documents while preserving issuer layouts, making identity-swapped forgeries harder to spot than image-level fakes. This paper tests whether experienced loan underwriters and processors detect such edits in a first-pass document-only review. The authors gave three hired reviewers 132 agent-edited forged PDFs derived from 47 genuine documents and checked whether their concerns actually matched the identity-altering edits. The core finding that only about one in ten judgements contained an edit-supported concern is a clear warning about relying on visual human review for financial fraud detection.

AI-assisted editing can produce loan documents that preserve familiar issuer layouts while changing the applicant's identity. We investigated whether experienced underwriters and loan processors identify such forgeries in first-pass, document-only review. Three practitioners recruited through Upwork each received one applicant package drawn from 134 forged PDFs derived from 47 genuine financial documents supplied with full consent. The edits preserved amounts, dates and balances; identifier inconsistencies introduced by the pipeline were knowingly retained before distribution. Reviewers were not told that files had been altered and returned 132 file-level judgements. Checking their explanations against the originals yielded 14 edit-supported concerns (10.6%): 12 Suspicious judgements and two Insufficient information judgements. All supported concerns involved identifier disagreements within or across documents, and no reported visual cue identified an actual edit. Thus, approximately one in ten judgements contained evidence of the forgery, despite known inconsistencies remaining in the files. These observations motivate evaluating consistency checks and independent source verification alongside human review. With three reviewer-package pairs and no genuine-file controls, the findings describe this exploratory setting rather than population-wide detection accuracy.
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cs.AIcs.CL Simiao Ren, Xingyu Shen, Tommy Duong et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper tests whether small wording changes can shift AI models from refusing to complying with a sensitive request: increasing income on a pay stub. Across 15 models and 445 simulated trials, the authors compare three prompt framings—stating a loan purpose, omitting the reason, or describing a printing error—and find that editing-call rates rise sharply from 14.1% to 66.2%. The work matters because it offers a concrete, traceable probe of boundary robustness in financial-document scenarios, though the authors are careful to say it does not establish an ethics ranking or prove real-world harm.

Can a small change in wording move an AI model from refusing a sensitive request to acting on it? We test 15 models on the same request to increase the income shown on a pay stub. Across 445 observable trials, models issue editing calls in 14.1% of cases when a loan purpose is stated, 33.1% when the purpose is omitted, and 66.2% when the change is described as fixing a printing error. Astra refuses all ten loan-purpose requests but issues calls in all ten purpose-omitted trials. Fable, Opus, and Muse Spark issue none across all three wordings; Sonnet issues some under the latter two. Response excerpts illustrate different ways of refusing, redirecting, or justifying an edit. The file is a marked test document and all tools are simulated. These results probe how boundaries behave in one setting; they do not prove an overall ethics ranking or that a harmful real-world edit succeeded.
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cs.AI Zhengye Bao, Shengtao Zhang, Haokai Zhang et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Long-term conversational memory is usually built with extraction, summarization, mutation, or graph construction. This paper asks whether that complexity is necessary and introduces Raw-RAG, a naive baseline that indexes raw conversation history with dense retrieval and cross-encoder reranking. Across LoCoMo, LongMemEval, MEME, and MemoryAgentBench, Raw-RAG outperforms a dozen agentic memory systems in six of seven model-settings, while ingesting histories up to $30\times$ faster. The core message is that retrieving raw evidence—and preserving the relational paths within it—currently matters more than sophisticated memory management.

LLM memory is widely used in long-term conversation understanding. Agentic memory systems often use mutation, structural organization, learned retrieval strategies, or other complex operations. Is this complexity always necessary? We study Raw-RAG, a naive RAG baseline using dense retrieval and reranking over raw history to supply evidence to a reader LLM. Across LoCoMo, LongMemEval, MEME, and MemoryAgentBench, Raw-RAG ranks first among the compared memory systems in six of seven benchmark-model settings, outperforming the strongest compared agentic memory system by 0.13-5.53 points. We investigate why raw-history retrieval remains competitive. Evidence analysis shows that its higher coverage of necessary evidence can offset lower utilization. Useful evidence includes both answer values and the relations and dependency paths needed to derive them. Even complete access to transformed memory stores leaves an accuracy gap relative to raw evidence, highlighting the importance of preserving raw information. These findings challenge the necessity of complex agentic memory for the evaluated conversation tasks and establish naive RAG as an essential baseline.
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cs.AI Abhishek Mishra, Sagnik Chatterjee, Suyash Maniyar · Oct 22, 2026

Papers such as Latent Guard propose reading LLM internal activations to detect harmful prompts independently of whether the model refuses. Mishra, Chatterjee, and Maniyar evaluate this claim across 15 instruction-tuned models and find that faithful instruction-token reads are no better than TF-IDF or sentence-embedding classifiers under rewording, while stronger template-token reads simply mirror the model's own refusal plan. The paper reframes latent-monitor evaluation around robustness to distribution shift and independence from the behavior being monitored, rather than raw detection scores.

Large language models have been reported to encode the harmfulness of a request separately from their decision to refuse it, and latent safety monitors such as Latent Guard build on this report by classifying prompts as harmful from the internal activations of the model, with the aim of catching harmful intent even when the model complies. Whether these representations give a signal of harm that survives distribution shift and is independent of model behaviour is unclear. We test this on out-of-distribution prompts made by rewriting existing harmful and benign requests with surface rewording, persuasive framing and jailbreak-style wrappers. Across 15 instruction-tuned LLMs and 38 activation-based readers, we compare harm detection with that of TF-IDF and sentence-embedding classifiers, with independently trained safety classifiers, and with the refusal of each model. Activations are read at the last token of the user instruction, where the model has read the whole request, and at the last chat-template token before the reply, where the planned response can be represented. Because models disagree about which prompts to refuse, we can separate a signal of the harmfulness of the prompt from a signal of the refusal decision of the model. At the end of the instruction, the representation is largely independent of the refusal behaviour of each model but degrades under distribution shift, so that a TF-IDF classifier ranks harm better than the original Latent Guard in every model we test, and linear and MLP probes do about as well as sentence-embedding classifiers trained on the same examples. The representation just before generation detects more, catching 44 percent of harmful prompts at a matched false-alarm rate against 32 percent for the refusal of the model, but that gain follows the refusal decision itself, and part of it comes from refusals that string-matching evaluation misses.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.CY Chenhan Lyu, Kit Wislocki, Sarah Elizabeth Stoeckl et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Mental-health chatbots powered by LLMs risk unsafe outputs, yet current safety layers are opaque and developer-driven. This paper proposes a clinician-led guardrail in which two doctoral trainees in clinical psychology author four safety checks, which are then formalized over sixteen typed facts and verified for internal consistency with an SMT solver before deterministic execution. The core claim is not superiority in accuracy but in inspectability: every verdict recomputes from named rules and facts, making disagreements localizable and revisable.

Large language models (LLMs) deployed in mental-health contexts can be evaluated for safety failures, but the resulting judgments are often difficult to inspect or explain. Common approaches to improving safety rely on prompt engineering, LLM-as-a-Judge, and Constitutional AI. In this work, we describe a clinician-led alternative in which two clinicians define, finalize, and adjudicate the four safety checks of a rule base, which is formally verified for internal consistency and applied as a guardrail over LLM outputs. Here and in the title, clinician-led refers to this rule base, not to the fact extractor or the uncertainty default, which are ours. Every verdict of the resulting verification layer is recomputable from a named rule and sixteen facts. Against an LLM judge matched in model, revision, quantization, rule text, and decoding but without the layer's computed 988/911 fact, the largest disagreement class, the satisfied-rule class, is structured: the Llama-3.3-70B judge, on its primary prompt, demands a crisis resource from 55 of the 65 replies (84.6%) that already contain one, while the same model, asked as a fact extractor, reports a recognized resource present on 54 of the 55. The verification layer never raises that demand, by construction. We report with equal prominence where this judge is stronger: fewer false crisis alarms on the one reference-scored check. We also report the measured cost (a specification revision raised block-class outcomes on held-out boundary prompts of an over-refusal benchmark from 6.0% to 16.0%, chiefly by changing fact extraction), the clinicians' decision to keep our uncertainty default, and the analysis of the result. The contribution is not a safer verdict. It is a guardrail whose disagreements with the judge localize to named rules and facts and whose measured costs trace to named facts and the uncertainty default.
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cs.CVcs.AI Yifeng Yao, Jinghan Li, Zhihao Zhang et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Most video pretraining methods recover masked content within a clip rather than predicting the future, and autoregressive token prediction has lagged joint-embedding methods in representation quality. VANE proposes next-frame prediction in a frozen semantic embedding space, using a causal encoder and a lightweight generative decoder to preserve spatial detail, and extends the same objective to still images via local-to-global crops. This unifies image and video pretraining under a single scalable objective centered on temporal evolution, yielding strong gains on anticipation, recognition, and dense benchmarks.

Video provides a natural source of supervision: what happens next serves as a learning signal for visual world modeling. Yet masked video pretraining focuses on recovering missing content from surrounding context rather than predicting the future from the past. Autoregressive methods instead predict forward one token at a time, but have yet to match joint-embedding methods in representation quality. This gap motivates us to revisit the granularity and space of future prediction. In this work, we introduce VANE, a self-supervised visual pretraining framework built on next-frame prediction in embedding space. A causal encoder summarizes past observations for a state predictor that infers the representation of the entire next frame, making temporal evolution the primary learning signal. This prediction is carried out in a fixed embedding space provided by a frozen semantic tokenizer, emphasizing scene content and structure. To retain fine-grained spatial detail alongside semantic content, a lightweight auxiliary generative decoder reconstructs future-frame patches conditioned on the predicted representations. To unify visual modeling across images and videos, we construct a local-to-global crop sequence for still images, allowing the same encoder to predict newly revealed regions from earlier crops under the same objective. Experiments show that VANE improves with model and data scaling, achieving SOTA on most anticipation, recognition, and dense perception benchmarks among unified encoders. Especially on EPIC-KITCHENS-100 action anticipation, it surpasses V-JEPA 2.1 by 7.1 points in mean-class recall@5. These results demonstrate that next-frame prediction in embedding space is effective and scalable for visual world modeling.
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cs.CLcs.AI Yang Liu, Zhiqiang Yuan, Shu-Dong Huang et al. · Oct 22, 2026

ULME tackles the frictions between text embedding and text generation, which are usually handled by separate models with incompatible objectives. The paper proposes a post-training framework for causal decoder-only LLMs that inserts a chain of learnable slots between the query and answer, then couples the two tasks via a stop-gradient predictive loss so that generation actively shapes the embedding. Across eight scales of Qwen2.5 and Qwen3 (0.5B–8B), a single ULME checkpoint raises MTEB scores by 3.3–4.1 points over the strongest open baseline while remaining on par with generation-only fine-tuning on standard accuracy benchmarks.

Text embedding and text generation are two of the most useful capabilities of modern large language models, yet they are typically provided by separate specialized models (an embedder and a generator) trained with incompatible objectives and deployed side by side in retrieval-augmented generation and agent systems. Recent unified embedding-generation models such as GritLM share parameters between the two capabilities, but they either switch attention regimes between modes or optimize embedding and language modeling as parallel objectives that never supervise each other. We argue that these designs are only partially unified: the two capabilities coexist on the same weights, but do not shape each other. We propose ULME, a post-training framework that unifies embedding and language modeling on a causal decoder-only LLM through predictive coupling. ULME inserts a chain of learnable slots between the query and the answer, reads a semantic embedding and a reasoning embedding from two designated slots, and trains three objectives on a shared causal backbone: a contrastive loss anchoring the semantic slot to document representations, a language-modeling loss supervising answer generation, and a stop-gradient predictive loss that aligns the reasoning slot with a pooled summary of the answer, so that generation actively shapes what the embedding encodes. Across two model families (Qwen2.5, Qwen3) and eight scales spanning 0.5B-8B parameters, a single ULME checkpoint improves MTEB by 3.3-4.1 points over the strongest open-source baseline, tightens BRIGHT and AdvBench-IR simultaneously, and remains on par with a generation-only fine-tune on standard accuracy benchmarks (MMLU, GSM8K, MMLU-Pro, HumanEval), demonstrating that genuine unification yields mutually reinforcing rather than merely coexisting capabilities.
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cs.AIcs.CLcs.CR Yuchen Wu (University of Washington), Jerry Wei (Anthropic) · Oct 22, 2026

The paper asks how to predict the performance of a safety probe before it is trained. Its core finding is that probe error follows two scaling laws: a power-law floor in model size and a Hill-curve approach to that floor as labels increase. This matters because it could let safety teams budget labels and choose architectures for new models without expensive grid search.

Safety probes trained on a model's activations are a standard tool for monitoring language models in real time. Each time a new model is released or a new harm area needs to be monitored, the probe must be retrained, which requires new labels and a choice of probe architecture. Yet neither the model nor the labels tell us in advance how well the resulting probe will perform. Finding out requires training and comparing many probe configurations. In this paper, we ask whether probe performance can instead be predicted in advance from model size and the number of labels. Existing safety datasets are insufficient for this, as they are either limited in scale or already saturated. We therefore construct six new safety datasets of sufficient size and difficulty. On these datasets, we train two probe architectures on 20 base models from five model families, with 32 to $10^{6}$ labels for each model. We measure performance using probe error, defined as 1 - AUROC, where lower values are better. We find that probe error follows two simple scaling laws. First, the lowest probe error a model can reach falls as a power law in its size. Second, probe error decreases towards its floor as the number of examples increases; the slope increases as the target model size increases. Both laws hold across tasks, model families and probe architectures, and only their fitted constants differ. When fitted on the smallest models of a family, the laws predict the error of the next larger model to within 0.02 in 72% of cases. They also identify whether more labels or a larger model is the cheaper way to reach a target error in 73% of cases. Finally, they choose the probe architecture with an extra error of only 0.006 on average when they pick the worse one. These laws allow safety researchers to determine how to create the best probe for any given model and label budget.
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cs.CLcs.AI Qince Luan, Jianhui Xu, Yang Xu · Oct 22, 2026

Singular-value spectra shape how transformer MLPs amplify different directions, yet their causal role in downstream capabilities is poorly understood. This paper introduces a post-hoc "Matthew" perturbation that reweights the singular values of MLP up_proj and down_proj matrices around their geometric mean—spiking inequality with $\alpha>0$ or smoothing it with $\alpha<0$—while preserving singular vectors and the geometric mean. Across five instruction-tuned Llama and Qwen models, the authors evaluate perturbed systems on 118 capability-labeled subtasks, auxiliary benchmarks, and personality probes, arguing that spectral inequality is a manipulable variable that can selectively trade off factual knowledge, language understanding, and deductive reasoning without retraining.

Singular-value spectra encode important structure in transformer feed-forward projections, yet their causal role in downstream behavior remains underexplored. We study post-hoc spectral smoothing and spiking interventions on the up_proj and down_proj matrices. Positive perturbation stretches deviations from the geometric mean, making large singular values larger and small ones smaller (spiking), and vice versa. The intervention preserves singular vectors and the geometric mean of the singular values. Across five open Llama and Qwen instruction models, we evaluate the perturbed systems on capability-labeled subtasks, standard and chain-of-thought reasoning benchmarks, judge-scored truthfulness, hallucination, and safety tasks, and TRAIT personality probes. To interpret score shifts, we fit responses in a three-dimensional capability basis consisting of factual knowledge, language understanding, and deductive reasoning. The induced changes suggest structured rather than purely random sensitivity: large positive perturbations more reliably suppress language and deductive responses, moderate negative perturbations can sometimes improve factual or task-local performance on the evaluated grids, and sensitivity varies strongly by model family, benchmark module, and underlying layerwise spectral inequality. These results position spectral perturbation as a lightweight intervention for probing how capabilities are organized and traded off in large language models.
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cs.AIcs.CL Rhitabrat Pokharel, Ameeta Agrawal · Oct 22, 2026

When a multilingual LLM flips its answer under user pressure, it is unclear whether it knew the correct answer and yielded (sycophancy) or simply lacked competence in that language. This paper introduces the SC-matrix, a $2 \times 2$ diagnostic crossing Competence ($C$) and Sycophancy ($S$) to decompose behavior into four cells: Robust, True Sycophancy, Honest Uncertainty, and Uninformed Deference. Their experiments across six languages and three models show that aggregate sycophancy rates hide very different failure mixtures, and that reasoning-based prompts outperform direct alignment instructions at reducing pressure-induced flips.

When a multilingual LLM agrees with a user's false premise, is it being sycophantic, or does it simply not know better in that language? Current research does not distinguish these cases: they record only whether the model agreed, not why. We introduce the SC-matrix, that crosses a model's competence (whether it answers correctly under no pressure) with its sycophancy (whether it maintains that answer under pressure). Our results show that (1) identical aggregate sycophancy rates can mask different failure compositions, (2) high competence in a language does not always protect against sycophancy, and (3) reasoning-oriented mitigations outperform directive-based strategies. We find that multilingual sycophancy is not a single phenomenon but a composite of different failures that require distinct diagnosis.
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cs.AIcs.CL Tim Wenjie Hu, Evelyn Nafula Ouma, Benjamin Akera et al. · Oct 22, 2026

This paper investigates whether Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO), previously applied to LLM-based speech recognition, can improve smaller encoder-decoder ASR models in a multilingual, low-resource setting. Using Whisper-large-v3 as a case study, the authors train SunflowerASR on 51 African languages and report state-of-the-art macro-averaged WER on AfriVox-v2 and SimbaBench. Key innovations include a headroom-based training example selection strategy and careful ablations isolating the reinforcement signal from mere additional training.

Autoregressive encoder-decoder speech recognition models trained with teacher forcing can suffer from exposure bias, limiting their ability to recover from their own prediction errors at inference time. Recent work has shown that reinforcement learning with Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) improves speech recognition in major languages with LLM-based models. We extend this line of work to smaller, non-LLM encoder-decoder ASR models, using Whisper-large-v3 as a case study across 51 African languages. The benefits of this approach are most pronounced when training data is scarce or when input audio is noisy or degraded. Our resulting model, SunflowerASR, achieves the best published macro-averaged WER on the AfriVox-v2 (0.227) and SimbaBench (0.372) benchmarks, and is publicly available.
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cs.CVcs.AI Keigo Watanabe, Hiroshi Kera, Kazuhiko Kawamoto · Oct 22, 2026

The paper attacks the combinatorial cost of maintaining separate LoRA adapters for every pretrained backbone–task pair. Its core idea, LoRA superposition, is to sum the low-rank updates learned independently on different backbones and apply the same composite update unchanged to every contributing model. The empirical finding is that frozen backbones implicitly select their own component from the sum, enabling a single shared adapter without explicit routing or cross-model alignment. If the phenomenon generalizes, it could enable modular adapter libraries that work across pretrained models without joint retraining.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is usually tied to the pretrained backbone on which it is learned. We ask whether LoRAs trained independently for the same task on different pretrained backbones can be summed and applied unchanged to all contributing backbones. We call this construction LoRA superposition. Across seven ViT-B/16 CLIP backbones and eight image-classification tasks, the exact sum improves all 56 backbone-task pairs and achieves a mean accuracy gain of 30.21 percentage points over the unadapted backbone. The exact sum achieves a mean accuracy only 0.28 percentage points below that of individually trained solo LoRAs. In contrast, a leave-one-model-out (LOMO) sum produces a mean gain of only 0.06 percentage points over the unadapted backbones. Backbone-specific solo LoRAs are nearly orthogonal in parameter space, while pairwise cross-backbone responses are strongly concentrated on the diagonal. These results support a component-wise non-interference hypothesis, under which the frozen backbone acts as an implicit selector of its own component without explicit routing or cross-model alignment.
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cs.AI Yutian Tao, Haoan Feng, Xin Xu et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Urban flooding threatens infrastructure but specialist hydrological modeling is often inaccessible to smaller municipalities. This paper proposes a GeoAI agentic framework that extracts terrain basins from public elevation data using discrete Morse theory, ranks them with a multi-criteria relative flood-priority score, and strictly limits the language model to recorded decision points—threshold selection, recommendation drafting, and self-review—under three human-in-the-loop checkpoints. The goal is transparent, screening-level flood-risk triage that keeps geospatial computation deterministic and recommendations traceable.

Open-world geographic artificial intelligence (GeoAI) agents can transform public geospatial data into accessible decision support for real-world challenges, but must balance autonomous reasoning with reliable spatial analysis and human oversight. We present a topology-guided GeoAI agentic framework for urban flood screening that takes a place name, drawn region, or uploaded boundary and returns ranked candidate basins with an interactive map and report. A deterministic controller retrieves public elevation, rainfall, soil, land-cover, exposure, and infrastructure layers, extracts terrain depressions with discrete Morse theory, and ranks basins with a relative flood-priority score. The language model acts only at recorded decision points: selecting a persistence threshold from a precomputed candidate table, drafting recommendations from computed evidence, and reviewing each recommendation against the same evidence. Three human-in-the-loop checkpoints let users revise the threshold, factor weights, or recommendation. In a College Park, Maryland case study, the selected threshold reduced 278 raw terrain minima to 70 basins, with 77% of these basins' lowest points also identified as sinks by a separately computed eight-direction (D8) flow-routing model. Across four further study areas, agreement ranged from 61% to 83%. By combining open data, explicit spatial reasoning, traceable evidence, and human oversight, the framework enables transparent first-pass flood screening while keeping consequential recommendations inspectable and user-controlled.
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cs.AI Viet-Thanh Pham, Thuy-Trang Vu, Zhuang Li et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper tackles the problem of social world modeling, where an agent must anticipate how other parties might respond to its actions in multi-turn interactions. The key insight is that social environments are inherently stochastic—one action can trigger several plausible responses—so predicting only a single future or exploring alternatives through repeated simulation at inference time is either myopic or expensive. The authors propose DSWM, a 4B-parameter distributional model that outputs a compact set of response clusters, each with a probability and predicted immediate and final outcome values, trained from 50-rollout Monte Carlo targets via supervised fine-tuning and GRPO. The setup is evaluated across five environments with held-out scenario families and unseen interaction backbones.

Social world models predict how interactions develop after an action, helping agents negotiate, cooperate and mediate. In these situations, one action can lead to several plausible futures, hence predicting only one future can overlook consequential alternatives, while exploring them through repeated simulations increases inference cost. We propose DSWM, a Distributional Social World Model that predicts alternative responses, their probabilities and immediate and final outcome values in one output per candidate action. We train a 4B model on repeated simulations using supervised fine-tuning and GRPO. At inference time, the actor uses these possible consequences to choose an action. Across three seen and two unseen environments, with interaction backbones absent from training collection, DSWM achieves the best average performance on 13 of 15 metrics. Ablations show that retaining multiple futures and their predicted probabilities improves outcomes in all five environments.
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cs.CVcs.AI Ali Abedi, Q. M. Jonathan Wu, Ning Zhang et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Federated unsupervised domain adaptation (FUDA) aims to adapt a model to an unlabeled target domain using decentralized labeled sources without centralizing raw data. This paper proposes SKD-ETR, a one-shot FUDA framework that trains a randomly initialized student on the target domain via smoothed knowledge distillation from an ensemble of source teachers, while simultaneously refining those teachers back toward the student through exponential moving average (EMA) updates. The authors claim this bidirectional, communication-efficient loop yields competitive accuracy on standard benchmarks while remaining robust to noisy pseudo-labels.

Federated unsupervised domain adaptation (FUDA) addresses the challenge of adapting models to an unlabeled target domain using decentralized source domains while preserving data privacy. However, existing FUDA methods typically require multiple communication rounds, rely on complex aggregation strategies, and often struggle with noisy pseudo labels and inconsistent source knowledge. To address these challenges, we propose SKD-ETR, a novel one-shot FUDA framework that combines Smoothed Knowledge Distillation (SKD) and Exponential moving average-based Teacher Refinement (ETR). SKD trains a student model on the target domain using smoothed soft pseudo labels generated by the ensemble of source models. This reduces overconfidence, mitigates noise, and improves robustness. ETR further refines each source model by interpolating its parameters toward the student via exponential moving average (EMA), thereby transferring target-domain knowledge back to the teachers. This bidirectional refinement enhances pseudo-label quality and student generalization without additional communication overhead. SKD-ETR eliminates complex aggregation by initializing the student model randomly and performing a single-round distillation process. Extensive experiments on OfficeHome, Office-Caltech, and DomainNet demonstrate that SKD-ETR achieves competitive performance while being communication- and computation-efficient, and robust under noisy supervision. The code for this paper is available at https://github.com/A-Abedi/SKD_ETR.
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cs.AI Zhiming Meng · Oct 22, 2026

This paper challenges the prevailing narrative that speculative-decoding acceptance rate inevitably decays as a chain-of-thought grows longer. The authors conduct the first systematic, full-length measurement using independent draft models—neither trained on target outputs—across all 500 MATH-500 problems, two decoding modes, and roughly 1.78 million verification rounds. After controlling for a greedy repetition pathology, they find that acceptance does not decay with position within the supported ranges (greedy 0–8K, sampling 0–12K) and actually rises slightly. They further show that failures concentrate on high-entropy reflection tokens rather than on late positions, and that a lightweight LoRA trajectory-alignment intervention fails to improve mean accepted length, redirecting draft-alignment objectives toward directly optimizing the acceptance criterion.

The claim that speculative-decoding acceptance rate decays as a chain-of-thought grows longer has become a de facto industry narrative, motivating draft-model co-design and position-aware training. Nearly all direct evidence comes from trained drafters whose offline training length is far shorter than inference, so a purely positional law has never been isolated. We present the first systematic, full-length measurement of acceptance rate as a function of generation position on MATH-500 (all 500 problems), under greedy and sampling decoding, with two independent drafts against DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B: a same-family draft (DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B) and a cross-family draft (Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct), yielding about 1.78M verification rounds. Using within-problem paired tests, we find that after isolating a greedy-decoding repetition pathology, acceptance rate does not decay with position in any of the four configurations within the supported ranges (greedy 0-8K, sampling 0-12K); the second half of each trajectory is slightly but significantly higher than the first. A controlled temperature sweep shows that the apparent sampling-mode degradation of high-entropy reflection tokens is a visibility artifact of argmax agreement, not a drop in expected acceptance probability. Rejections concentrate with high precision on reflection trigger tokens such as &#34;wait&#34;, &#34;however&#34; and &#34;check&#34;, an entropy-selective failure that a lightweight three-arm LoRA trajectory-alignment intervention (uniform, reflection-marked, entropy-weighted) fails to improve in mean accepted length. We thus supply the positional baseline that independent draft-target pairs were missing, and localize the residual failure to decision-point entropy rather than position.
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cs.AI Min Zeng, Zaifu Zhan, Kai Yu et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper introduces ChronoEvo, a benchmark of 1,709 real clinical-guideline revisions spanning 12 semantic change types, to test whether LLMs update recommendations when given evolving medical evidence. Its central finding is a persistent dissociation: models frequently recognize that a recommendation has changed yet fail to fully incorporate those changes, leaving a roughly 32-percentage-point recognition-to-incorporation gap even when revised evidence is explicitly provided. This establishes faithful knowledge incorporation as a distinct and under-measured dimension of clinical LLM reliability.

Medical knowledge evolves as clinical guidelines revise recommendations, yet whether large language models (LLMs) faithfully incorporate such changes remains unclear. We introduce ChronoEvo, comprising 1,709 recommendation-level revisions across 12 forms of medical knowledge change, to distinguish recognition of revised guidance from incorporation into clinical recommendations. In the primary model, 90.8% of responses recognized revisions and 80.2% were clinically correct, but only 58.5% fully incorporated guidance, yielding a 32.3-percentage-point recognition-incorporation gap. This dissociation persisted across 14 models and was corroborated by two clinicians' adjudicated assessment of 300 responses, yielding a 40.3-percentage-point gap in the validation sample. Changes in recommendation strength and patient eligibility were associated with retention of outdated guidance. A revision-salience intervention reduced outdated-content retention and improved clinical correctness but did not significantly improve full incorporation. These findings identify faithful incorporation of evolving medical knowledge as a distinct challenge for clinical LLM reliability, even when updated guideline evidence is available.
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cs.LGcs.AI Shawn Im, James Oldfield, Adel Bibi et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Understanding how reasoning models compute their chain-of-thought is challenging because sampled responses vary widely, making it hard to isolate the effect of a prompt intervention. This paper proposes behavioral counterfactuals: keep a generated response fixed and compare next-token distributions under a control prompt and an intervention prompt. The authors train a residual-stream edit module to minimize the $\mathrm{KL}$ divergence between the edited and counterfactual output distributions, then attribute recovery to individual token edits and validate with activation patching. On ethical reasoning tasks, they find that filler and question tokens mediate a substantial share of the intervention’s influence even when the model never verbally acknowledges the suggestion.

Faithfully understanding the internal process that occurs as models form their chain of thought is an important problem with the rise in model capabilities. However, this remains challenging due to the variance in sampled responses, making it difficult to isolate the effects of interventions and compare model reasoning systematically. We propose a method for localizing and analyzing how a given intervention affects the model's reasoning through behavioral counterfactuals: given a fixed response, how does introducing an intervention to the prompt change the next-token distributions? We train a module to edit the residual stream such that it minimizes the KL divergence between the output distributions for a fixed response under a source prompt and its counterfactual target prompt. We find that matching the output distributions recovers the counterfactual behavior more effectively than standard activation reconstruction objectives and validate that attribution of the trained module outputs is effective for identifying causally important locations for counterfactual recovery. The attribution maps and visualizations of the downstream effects of model edits provide an interface for generating hypotheses about the original model's computation, which can then be tested with activation patching. In a case study on Gemma-4-E4B-it and DeepSeek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B, we investigate how a suggestion influences model reasoning even when it is not verbally acknowledged. Our analysis identifies representations at the question statement and filler tokens that mediate a substantial part of the suggestion's influence, with downstream effects such as changing the framing of the justification or even the final answer.
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cs.LGcs.AI Zhijie Zhong, Zhiwen Yu, Pengyu Li et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Time series anomaly detection has fragmented into siloed architectures—RNNs, Transformers, diffusion models, state space models, and LLMs—without a principled way to compare their detection assumptions. This survey attacks the chaos by separating detection paradigms (reconstruction, forecasting, generative, similarity-based, statistical, and LLM-driven) from backbone architectures, and formalizes a multivariate taxonomy that includes channel-correlation anomalies. It also delivers a critical empirical analysis of evaluation metrics and releases an open-source benchmark. The result is a much-needed map for researchers navigating a rapidly expanding landscape.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a foundational problem in data mining, aiming to identify observations that deviate significantly from nominal temporal patterns. Driven by escalating data volumes and application complexity, recent research has yielded diverse architectures, including diffusion models, state space models, and large language models (LLMs). However, existing surveys provide limited coverage of these emerging designs and lack a unified treatment of multivariate anomalies, cross-domain unified modeling, metric reliability, and contemporary evaluation challenges. To bridge these gaps, this survey delivers three core contributions: (1) We establish a refined anomaly categorization and a structured taxonomy of paradigms reflecting modern advances, comparing detection mechanisms and charting developmental trajectories across paradigms. (2) We provide an extensive analysis of evaluation methodologies and conduct comprehensive experiments to assess metric fidelity, complemented by an open-source benchmark repository encompassing algorithms, datasets, and evaluation tools. (3) We outline key open challenges, offering forward-looking perspectives on dynamic thresholding, model interpretability, zero-shot transfer, multi-modal alignment, and foundational models for time series. By addressing existing theoretical and empirical limitations, this survey establishes a coherent framework to guide future TSAD research and practical deployments.