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6 papers in stat.ME
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stat.MEstat.ML Qiong Zhang, Qinglong Tian, Pengfei Li · Mar 23, 2026

Neyman–Pearson multiclass classification (NPMC) handles asymmetric error costs by constraining class-specific misclassification rates, yet existing methods fail when training labels are corrupted. This paper proposes an empirical likelihood (EL) framework that recovers true class proportions and posterior probabilities from noisy labels via an exponential tilting density ratio model, enabling valid error control without prior knowledge of the noise transition matrix. The approach combines semiparametric estimation theory with a practical EM algorithm, yielding classifiers that satisfy NP oracle inequalities asymptotically.

In many classification problems, the costs of misclassifying observations from different classes can be highly unequal. The Neyman-Pearson multiclass classification (NPMC) framework addresses this issue by minimizing a weighted misclassification risk while imposing upper bounds on class-specific error probabilities. Existing NPMC methods typically assume that training labels are correctly observed. In practice, however, labels are often corrupted due to measurement error or annotation, and the effect of such label noise on NPMC procedures remains largely unexplored. We study the NPMC problem when only noisy labels are available in the training data. We propose an empirical likelihood (EL)-based method that relates the distributions of noisy and true labels through an exponential tilting density ratio model. The resulting maximum EL estimators recover the class proportions and posterior probabilities of the clean labels required for error control. We establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and optimal convergence rates for these estimators. Under mild conditions, the resulting classifier satisfies NP oracle inequalities with respect to the true labels asymptotically. An expectation-maximization algorithm computes the maximum EL estimators. Simulations show that the proposed method performs comparably to the oracle classifier under clean labels and substantially improves over procedures that ignore label noise.
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stat.APstat.MEstat.ML Emmett B. Kendall, Jonathan P. Williams, Curtis B. Storlie et al. · Mar 23, 2026

This paper addresses the critical challenge of detecting occult hemorrhage (internal bleeding) in intensive care units, where delayed diagnosis leads to preventable physiological shock and death. The authors develop a Bayesian regime switching model (RSM) that tracks five latent physiological states—including stable, hemorrhage, and recovery—using longitudinal vital signs (heart rate, MAP, hemoglobin, lactate) and medication history. Applied to 33,924 Mayo Clinic ICU encounters, the model aims to provide interpretable, probabilistic early warnings that outperform standard vital sign monitoring by accounting for autoregressive trends and pre-admission physiological changes.

Detection of occult hemorrhage (i.e., internal bleeding) in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) can pose significant challenges for critical care workers. Because blood loss may not always be clinically apparent, clinicians rely on monitoring vital signs for specific trends indicative of a hemorrhage event. The inherent difficulties of diagnosing such an event can lead to late intervention by clinicians which has catastrophic consequences. Therefore, a methodology for early detection of hemorrhage has wide utility. We develop a Bayesian regime switching model (RSM) that analyzes trends in patients' vitals and labs to provide a probabilistic assessment of the underlying physiological state that a patient is in at any given time. This article is motivated by a comprehensive dataset we curated from Mayo Clinic of 33,924 real ICU patient encounters. Longitudinal response measurements are modeled as a vector autoregressive process conditional on all latent states up to the current time point, and the latent states follow a Markov process. We present a novel Bayesian sampling routine to learn the posterior probability distribution of the latent physiological states, as well as develop an approach to account for pre-ICU-admission physiological changes. A simulation and real case study illustrate the effectiveness of our approach.
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astro-ph.COastro-ph.IMcs.LG Hubert Leterme, Andreas Tersenov, Jalal Fadili et al. · Mar 23, 2026

Paper introduces PnPMass, a plug-and-play framework for weak lensing mass mapping that reconciles reconstruction accuracy with practical deployment constraints of upcoming Stage-IV surveys. The key innovation is a carefully chosen data-fidelity operator that decouples denoiser training from observation-specific noise statistics, enabling a single trained model to handle varying survey conditions without retraining. Coupled with moment-network-based uncertainty quantification and conformal calibration, the method offers fast inference with coverage guarantees, addressing limitations of both end-to-end deep learning and costly MCMC sampling approaches.

Upcoming stage-IV surveys such as Euclid and Rubin will deliver vast amounts of high-precision data, opening new opportunities to constrain cosmological models with unprecedented accuracy. A key step in this process is the reconstruction of the dark matter distribution from noisy weak lensing shear measurements. Current deep learning-based mass mapping methods achieve high reconstruction accuracy, but either require retraining a model for each new observed sky region (limiting practicality) or rely on slow MCMC sampling. Efficient exploitation of future survey data therefore calls for a new method that is accurate, flexible, and fast at inference. In addition, uncertainty quantification with coverage guarantees is essential for reliable cosmological parameter estimation. We introduce PnPMass, a plug-and-play approach for weak lensing mass mapping. The algorithm produces point estimates by alternating between a gradient descent step with a carefully chosen data fidelity term, and a denoising step implemented with a single deep learning model trained on simulated data corrupted by Gaussian white noise. We also propose a fast, sampling-free uncertainty quantification scheme based on moment networks, with calibrated error bars obtained through conformal prediction to ensure coverage guarantees. Finally, we benchmark PnPMass against both model-driven and data-driven mass mapping techniques. PnPMass achieves performance close to that of state-of-the-art deep-learning methods while offering fast inference (converging in just a few iterations) and requiring only a single training phase, independently of the noise covariance of the observations. It therefore combines flexibility, efficiency, and reconstruction accuracy, while delivering tighter error bars than existing approaches, making it well suited for upcoming weak lensing surveys.
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cs.LGstat.COstat.ME Foo Hui-Mean, Yuan-chin I Chang · Mar 22, 2026

ALMAB-DC unifies Gaussian process active learning, multi-armed bandit scheduling, and asynchronous distributed computing to tackle expensive black-box optimization in sequential experimental design. The framework targets dose-finding, spatial field estimation, and ML/engineering tasks, claiming superior sample efficiency and near-linear parallel speedups up to $K=16$ agents. While the modular architecture and ablation analyses are rigorous, all empirical results derive from calibrated surrogate emulators rather than live systems, substantially limiting external validity.

Sequential experimental design under expensive, gradient-free objectives is a central challenge in computational statistics: evaluation budgets are tightly constrained and information must be extracted efficiently from each observation. We propose \textbf{ALMAB-DC}, a GP-based sequential design framework combining active learning, multi-armed bandits (MAB), and distributed asynchronous computing for expensive black-box experimentation. A Gaussian process surrogate with uncertainty-aware acquisition identifies informative query points; a UCB or Thompson-sampling bandit controller allocates evaluations across parallel workers; and an asynchronous scheduler handles heterogeneous runtimes. We present cumulative regret bounds for the bandit components and characterize parallel scalability via Amdahl's Law. We validate ALMAB-DC on five benchmarks. On the two statistical experimental-design tasks, ALMAB-DC achieves lower simple regret than Equal Spacing, Random, and D-optimal designs in dose--response optimization, and in adaptive spatial field estimation matches the Greedy Max-Variance benchmark while outperforming Latin Hypercube Sampling; at $K=4$ the distributed setting reaches target performance in one-quarter of sequential wall-clock rounds. On three ML/engineering tasks (CIFAR-10 HPO, CFD drag minimization, MuJoCo RL), ALMAB-DC achieves 93.4\% CIFAR-10 accuracy (outperforming BOHB by 1.7\,pp and Optuna by 1.1\,pp), reduces airfoil drag to $C_D = 0.059$ (36.9\% below Grid Search), and improves RL return by 50\% over Grid Search. All advantages over non-ALMAB baselines are statistically significant under Bonferroni-corrected Mann--Whitney $U$ tests. Distributed execution achieves $7.5\times$ speedup at $K = 16$ agents, consistent with Amdahl's Law.
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stat.MEcs.LG Shuoxun Xu, Zhanhao Yan, Lexin Li · Mar 22, 2026

This paper addresses brain encoding and decoding by focusing on the alignment step between fMRI neural representations and visual stimulus embeddings. The authors propose two lightweight statistical learning methods—Inverse Semi-supervised Learning (ISL) and Meta Transfer Learning (MTL)—that operate with frozen encoders and decoders to improve sample efficiency under limited paired data and subject heterogeneity. The core innovation lies in leveraging abundant unpaired stimuli through inverse mapping with residual debiasing, and borrowing strength across subjects via sparse aggregation, all while maintaining rigorous theoretical guarantees.

Brain encoding and decoding aims to understand the relationship between external stimuli and brain activities, and is a fundamental problem in neuroscience. In this article, we study latent embedding alignment for brain encoding and decoding, with a focus on improving sample efficiency under limited fMRI-stimulus paired data and substantial subject heterogeneity. We propose a lightweight alignment framework equipped with two statistical learning components: inverse semi-supervised learning that leverages abundant unpaired stimulus embeddings through inverse mapping and residual debiasing, and meta transfer learning that borrows strength from pretrained models across subjects via sparse aggregation and residual correction. Both methods operate exclusively at the alignment stage while keeping encoders and decoders frozen, allowing for efficient computation, modular deployment, and rigorous theoretical analysis. We establish finite-sample generalization bounds and safety guarantees, and demonstrate competitive empirical performance on the large-scale fMRI-image reconstruction benchmark data.
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cs.LGcs.AIstat.ME Marc Franquesa Mon\'es, Jiaqi Zhang, Caroline Uhler · Mar 23, 2026

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms like PC require exponentially many conditional independence (CI) tests in the worst case---specifically $p^{\mathcal{O}(d)}$ where $d$ is the maximum degree. This paper establishes that the fundamental complexity parameter is actually $s$, the maximum undirected clique size in the essential graph, which can be much smaller than $d$ (e.g., $s=2$ vs $d=p-2$ in Figure 1). The authors propose Greedy Ancestral Search (GAS), which achieves $p^{\mathcal{O}(s)}$ CI tests, and prove a matching lower bound of $2^{\Omega(s)}$, establishing exponent-optimality up to a logarithmic factor.

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests. However, existing algorithms such as the prominent PC algorithm need to perform a large number of independence tests, which in the worst case is exponential in the maximum degree of the causal graph. Despite extensive research, it remains unclear if there exist algorithms with better complexity without additional assumptions. Here, we establish an algorithm that achieves a better complexity of $p^{\mathcal{O}(s)}$ tests, where $p$ is the number of nodes in the graph and $s$ denotes the maximum undirected clique size of the underlying essential graph. Complementing this result, we prove that any constraint-based algorithm must perform at least $2^{\Omega(s)}$ conditional independence tests, establishing that our proposed algorithm achieves exponent-optimality up to a logarithmic factor in terms of the number of conditional independence tests needed. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings through simulations, on semi-synthetic gene-expression data, and real-world data, demonstrating the efficiency of our algorithm compared to existing methods in terms of number of conditional independence tests needed.