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cs.LGphysics.chem-phphysics.optics Jihwan Kim, Jaeseong Heo, Yujin Kim et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Standard deep learning for spectroscopy treats spectra as fixed-grid intensity vectors, which makes models brittle when sampling grids, spectral ranges, or instruments change. This paper proposes to supply each spectral point as a pair of intensity and physical wavenumber, computing Transformer positional encodings directly from the wavenumber coordinate rather than the array index. Evaluated on in-house bacterial Raman spectra and a public 30-isolate benchmark, the approach improves robustness under partial spectral observation and on sampling grids never seen during training.

Machine-learning models for spectroscopy usually treat a spectrum as a fixed-grid intensity vector, leaving the physical coordinate implicit in the array index. Such models are tied to a single sampling grid, spectral range and resolution, which limits their use when measurement conditions change. Here we represent each spectral point as a pair of intensity and wavenumber and compute Transformer positional encodings from the wavenumber itself. On Raman spectra of three bacterial species and their synthetic mixtures, this representation remained robust to noise, sparser sampling and partial spectral coverage across convolutional, residual and Transformer networks. In controlled comparisons, wavenumber-based encoding outperformed index-based and learned encodings under partial observation and retained its performance on sampling grids never seen during training, where index-based encoding degraded. These findings were reproduced on a public 30-isolate bacterial benchmark. Explicit physical coordinates offer a simple route to robust spectral analysis under variable measurement conditions.
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cs.AIcs.LGcs.MA Ali Atiah Alzahrani · Oct 22, 2026

Most automated agent-design research evaluates candidates on static, immediate-reward benchmarks, ignoring the non-stationarity, delayed feedback, and switching costs of real deployment. Cmas formalizes meta-agent architecture search as sequential incumbent replacement with an explicit false-promotion target, using paired shadow replay, interventional credit, and a conservative gate followed by simulated canary and rollback. The paper matters because it treats the architecture itself as a time-varying decision variable and asks whether we can safely replace a running compound agentic system without backtested-return overfitting. The answer offered is guarded: standard statistical ingredients are integrated sensibly, but the calibration is empirical and the guarantees are deliberately scoped.

Automated agentic-system design is typically evaluated on static task suites with immediate scalar rewards. Deployed systems face persistent shift, delayed dependent feedback, correlated component failures, and costly architecture changes. We formalize meta-agent architecture search as sequential incumbent replacement with switching costs and hard risk constraints and introduce Conservative Meta-Agent Search (CMAS). CMAS retrieves archived architectures and proposes typed graph edits, then scores each against the incumbent by paired shadow replay under common random numbers, with interventional component credit. Promotion requires an empirically calibrated, variance-penalized simultaneous score above a pre-specified margin, and is followed by a simulated canary stage and pre-specified rollback. Since backtests cannot certify meta-level skill, we introduce MetaInvest-Bench, a regime-switching simulator whose specified worker competence makes a surrogate-optimal architecture computable, with leakage-controlled replay, adversarial governance tracks, and five negative controls. Financial streams serve as a risk-sensitive testbed for meta-level generalization; we claim no alpha. Across 96 streams, CMAS cuts normalized mean surrogate dynamic-oracle regret from 0.116 to 0.104 and raises held-out utility from 0.44 to 0.48 over the strongest adaptive baseline; when extra workers add no value, it contracts to near-single-agent teams. Its deployment inference cost is ~6% lower, though its search-inclusive token cost is the highest of the methods compared. The observed per-update false-promotion rate is 3.4% against a nominal 5% target, and 4.8% in a sealed rerun. The calibration is empirical: it concerns an update-level replay statistic on an author-designed benchmark, and guarantees neither full-utility improvement, nor absence of simulated canary-stage harm, nor sequence-level error control.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Mateusz Modrzejewski, Tomasz Radzikowski · Oct 22, 2026

Language model rankings on question-answering benchmarks are known to shift with prompt wording, raising doubts about single-prompt evaluation. This paper investigates whether augmenting models with deterministic tools stabilizes pairwise comparisons, proposing a matched protocol that isolates answer readout, reasoning, tool invocation, and report access to attribute changes in wording sensitivity. Applying the protocol to six open models across five domains and five prompt wordings, the authors find that tools improve accuracy where a program directly answers the question yet frequently widen ranking instability because call frequency itself becomes wording-dependent. The work matters because it shows that deterministic tool output is not enough to guarantee stable evaluation, and it recommends reporting call frequencies and pairwise stability alongside headline accuracy.

Language models are compared on question-answering benchmarks that pose each question in one wording, and a reworded question can change which of two models scores higher. We ask whether giving the models tools makes such comparisons more stable. An accuracy gain cannot answer this, because tools change several steps between the question and the scored answer at once. We propose a matched protocol that separates those steps: the answer readout, reasoning, the decision to call, the tool's answer, and the report supplied without a call. We apply it to six open models in five domains under five wordings. We find that tools raise accuracy where a program answers the question and widen the wording sensitivity of many pairwise comparisons. The widening follows how often a model calls, and call frequency follows the wording for some models and not others. It also depends on the interface and the instructions: a native tool-calling interface and a second tool description leave no detected widening in molecules, and sensitivity persists where tools return intermediate results. These findings show that deterministic reports do not guarantee stable comparisons. We recommend reporting call frequency and comparison stability under several wordings beside accuracy.
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cs.SEcs.AIcs.ET Maria Gabriela Alves Zuppardo, Vinicius Cardoso Garcia · Oct 22, 2026

Multi-agent LLM pipelines are widely assumed to outperform single-call setups, yet it is unclear whether gains come from typed inter-agent contracts or merely from decomposition into specialized prompts. This paper conducts an 18-condition controlled experiment on requirements classification and MoSCoW prioritization using three small language models on the PROMISE NFR+ dataset. The core finding is that most accuracy gains are associated with decomposition and task-specific prompts rather than with Pydantic-validated typed states, though the typed contract shows other quality-assurance properties such as earlier fault containment.

Multi-agent LLM pipelines are often credited with gains in software engineering tasks, but it is rarely clear whether a gain stems from the typed contract between agents or from the specialized prompts that decomposition enables. We study this attribution problem in Requirements Engineering, comparing three architectures for classifying requirements as functional or non-functional and then prioritizing them with MoSCoW: a single-call baseline; a two-call variant that reuses the pipeline's specialized prompts but passes an unvalidated intermediate; and a pipeline with a Pydantic-validated typed state. The 18 conditions cover PROMISE NFR+ (625 requirements), three locally hosted small language models, and two languages. The F1 gain over the baseline is associated with the two-call, specialized-prompt variant (up to +0.075), whereas the typed state adds a small difference (-0.003 to +0.013) that is significant in one of six comparisons. Beyond accuracy, the typed pipeline contains out-of-range model outputs at the agent boundary, while the unvalidated variant fails later and drops the requirement, and it shows a small, reproducible increase in inter-model MoSCoW consistency whose cause our design cannot isolate. The study is associative: the contrasts bundle prompts, call count, and staged context, and the results come from three 7--8B models on one dataset. The implementation and replication package are archived on Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23380444).
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cs.LGcs.AI Jinjian Jiang, Jing Peng, Rehan Deen et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Meta-Diff reframes few-shot diffusion adaptation as reusable transport in a low-dimensional task space, avoiding per-target backbone retraining. A shared encoder maps source and target distributions to coordinates $z$, and a learned affine map $\widetilde{z}_T = A z_S + b_c$ predicts the target coordinate from a data-rich source without using any target images at deployment. This is especially consequential in domains like healthcare, where target data are scarce and collecting them is costly or privacy-sensitive.

Many deployments require a model to move rapidly from a data-rich source to a related target observed only sparsely. This is especially consequential where target data are difficult to collect, as in healthcare settings with persistent population or acquisition imbalances. Retraining or fine-tuning a high-capacity generator for every target is costly and can be statistically unreliable when target data are scarce. We introduce Meta-Diff, which instead learns a recurring source--target relation once in a compact task space. A shared encoder maps each distribution to a low-dimensional coordinate; a learned relation transports a new source coordinate to its predicted target, and a shared diffusion backbone generates from that prediction without target-specific retraining. Controlled Gaussian-mixture experiments identify when this works: task identity must survive the representation, the relation must generalise across tasks, and the source--target shift must leave useful headroom for transport. On held-out CIFAR-100 validation tasks, correct source $+$ transport achieves 13.9% lower mean SW than transport from the wrong source. With validation-selected adaptation settings in the final-test one-target comparison, its mean SW is 14.7% lower than target-only modelling and 32.7% lower than full fine-tuning; the main route itself uses no target image and assumes the applicable relation is known. On matched CIFAR test episodes, generating from the clean-source coordinate and then applying the known corruption yields lower SW than task-space transport. Office-Home exposes a complementary boundary: transport can align target-domain statistics without reliable object identity. Together, these results recast extreme-few-shot adaptation as reusable transport in task space, while making the conditions for its success and failure directly measurable.
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cs.LGcs.AIcs.SY Felix Saretzky · Oct 22, 2026

High-speed FMCG manufacturing loses billions to unplanned downtime because maintenance software often relies on associational predictions that can misrank corrective actions when confounders or mediators are present. This dissertation proposes PriMa-Causa, a framework that inserts a Causal Reasoning Layer between fault prediction and action recommendation, using a graph-conditioned tabular foundation model—pre-trained once on synthetic structural causal models—to answer interventional queries $P(Y \mid do(T{=}t), X{=}x)$ in a single forward pass. If the empirical chapters deliver on the design, the work could materially improve maintenance efficiency by targeting what actions do rather than what they merely predict.

Automated manufacturing requires data-driven decisions under uncertainty and sparse observational records, and unplanned downtime is a dominant cost of getting them wrong. Prescriptive maintenance recommends a maintenance action against an impending failure rather than merely predicting it. Established reference architectures couple predictive models with rule- or optimisation-based recommendation logic. Selecting a corrective action, however, requires an interventional quantity: how the line behaviour would change if the action were set. Manufacturing data is observational, so a model fitted to predict the outcome estimates an associational quantity and may misdirect the choice of action without the prediction error revealing it. Causal estimators target the interventional quantity but require an expert-led causal study per case, for which the bounded decision window of operation leaves no room. This dissertation analyses how causal reasoning can be embedded into prescriptive maintenance so that actions are ranked by their estimated interventional effect. The result is PriMa-Causa, built from three components: a causal reasoning layer that integrates the estimate into the PriMa reference model, a parametric simulator that supplies the interventional ground truth absent from manufacturing data, and a graph-conditioned tabular causal foundation model that, pre-trained once on this synthetic production-line prior, answers interventional queries in a single forward pass. PriMa-Causa attains a lower prescription error than associational baselines, with the largest margin under weak overlap and sparse context, and a partially disclosed causal graph reduces this error further. The causal inductive bias of the synthetic prior and the graph conditioning can thus replace per-case estimator fitting, a step toward automating causal inference for autonomous and self-healing maintenance.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.DL Clemencia Siro, Laura Hollink · Oct 22, 2026

Museum description generation is usually framed as a data-to-text task where richer metadata improves grounding, yet heterogeneous and unevenly documented catalogue records break that assumption. This paper introduces a two-phase framework—observational across 10,250 artefacts and controlled across 500 objects—to isolate how metadata quantity, field type, and image access shape what LLMs include, omit, and infer. The central finding is that field identity, not just field count, determines faithfulness: context fields are omitted while content fields trigger unsupported elaboration, and images can increase inference rather than grounding. The authors argue that aggregate reference similarity masks these failures and motivate field- and claim-level evaluation.

Metadata-conditioned generation is often framed as a data-to-text task in which additional input fields should improve grounding. Museum description generation challenges this assumption because catalogue records are heterogeneous, partially visual, and unevenly documented across geographic regions. We study how metadata composition shapes the generation of artefact descriptions through a two-phase framework. Phase 1 analyses natural metadata variation in a large museum collection, where field count, field type, image availability, and Place co-vary. Phase 2 introduces controlled field probes that hold object identity fixed while varying metadata quantity, field type, and image access. Our results show that metadata quantity alone does not explain generation behaviour. Field type determines whether models ground, omit, or infer information, while images can both support visual grounding and increase unsupported interpretation. More broadly, our findings show that metadata-conditioned data-to-text evaluation should assess field- and claim-level support, rather than relying only on aggregate input coverage or reference similarity.
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cs.AIcs.LG Aman Behera, Payal Payal · Oct 22, 2026

The paper asks whether offline audits can reliably certify that an agent update will be safe once deployed. It formalizes the post-audit mirage by constructing matched safe and harmful lifecycles that expose byte-identical public evidence to the verifier while an isolated scorer records opposite deployment truth. The authors prove a non-identifiability theorem at this audit interface, instantiate it in an exact benchmark spanning authorization, scheduling, and shared-capacity environments, and propose a fail-closed monitor that uses fresh group-labelled harm outcomes to decide only when the evidence supports it. The core message is that correctness checks on fixed observations cannot substitute for missing deployment information.

Offline tests can fail to reveal whether an agent update will remain safe after deployment. We operationalize this post-audit mirage using matched safe and harmful lifecycles that expose identical verifier-visible evidence while an isolated scorer records opposite deployment truth. Our theorem applies standard observational-equivalence and indistinguishability ideas to this executable audit boundary and states the resulting error-abstention tradeoff. The Post-Audit Mirage benchmark makes that boundary executable across authorization, scheduling, and shared-capacity environments. IdentifiedRangeMonitor uses fresh group-labelled harm outcomes to return deploy, hold, cannot determine, or unsupported. Experiments show that monitoring can recover the missing distinction in favorable settings but may remain undecided for rare groups, small effects, or missing observations. Verifier-agent evaluation must therefore test both calculation validity and whether the available evidence supports the deployment decision.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Asal Mehrabi, Mohammad Aliannejadi, Clemencia Siro · Oct 22, 2026

LLM-as-a-Judge is widely used for multilingual evaluation, yet prompting strategies are usually validated only in English. This paper tests whether those strategies transfer across judge models and languages by benchmarking nine prompting strategies with four open-weight judges on 27 languages and four tasks. The central finding is that judge identity dominates prompting effects, with strategy effectiveness reversing across models and collapsing in low-resource languages, underscoring that prompt design must be validated per judge and language.

LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation is increasingly applied to multilingual tasks, yet prompting strategies such as Chain-of-Thought and Role Conditioning are recommended based solely on English benchmarks. Whether their effectiveness transfers across judge models and languages remains unknown: prompt-sensitivity studies are largely English-centric, while existing multilingual judge studies fix the prompt template. In this work, we address this gap by measuring this interaction through a benchmark of 9 prompting strategies, 4 open-weight judges, 27 languages, and 4 tasks across 13 datasets, yielding over 1M pointwise scores on gold-reference outputs, validated against human judgments. We find that prompting strategies are not transferable: the choice of the judge model dominates the choice of prompting strategy, strategy effects reverse direction across judges, and stability degrades in low-resource languages, where these effects are concealed by aggregate reporting. These findings show that prompting effects in multilingual evaluation are conditioned on the judge, task, and language. Consequently, prompting strategies should be validated for the intended evaluation setting, and cross-study comparisons should account for both judge and prompt configuration.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Martino M. L. Pulici, Cuong Xuan Chu, Evgeny Kharlamov et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Document-level LoRA adapters are pitched as modular knowledge units for retrieval and merging, yet standard open-book evaluation cannot tell whether an adapter has memorized a document or merely learned to read it well. This paper introduces a cloze probe that withholds the source text and finds that open-book scores are almost entirely generic reading behavior: a random adapter recovers 82% of a specialist's open-book advantage but only 2% of its cloze gain. The findings argue that adapter-bank evaluation needs a closed-book probe alongside open-book scores, and the authors' candid disclosure of four silent errors is a model of experimental hygiene.

Single-document LoRA adapters have been proposed as units of knowledge to be merged and retrieved; yet open-book scoring, with the document in the prompt, can credit a document's own adapter (its specialist) for reading that document as readily as for holding it. Training one adapter for each of 150 Wikipedia articles on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, we find that open-book scores mostly measure a reading behaviour every adapter shares: a random adapter trained on another document recovers 82 % of the specialist's open-book advantage over the base model but only 2 % of its advantage on a cloze probe that asks for the same document's facts without providing the source text, a share we cannot distinguish from zero. Content does reach the weights, since the specialists beat the base model in cloze recall by 0.094, and the geometry of their updates follows the documents they read; yet, in a test of 30 queries, adapters chosen by weight-space proximity or text embedding are not distinguishable from random ones on either probe, although that test cannot exclude an advantage of about four fifths of what a query's own adapter gains over a random one. At 16 documents or more, correctly scaled merges recover 87 % to 89 % of the specialists' open-book advantage but only 12 % to 16 % of their cloze advantage, with intervals that run from below zero to at most 32 %, against 94 % for joint training.We also report four silent errors, each of which produced a clean, wrong result.
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cs.LGcs.AI Hyunwoo Yu, Jongbeom Lee, Hyunbin Kim et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Sparse attention must approximate the long tail of unseen KV-cache tokens, yet discarding it biases the output and random sampling misses heavy hitters at extreme sparsity. OpenAttention folds the tail into a few count-aware mean proxies discovered via query-geometry clustering, achieving 99% of dense accuracy while reading only 1% of the cache. The accompanying Triton kernel delivers a 10× speedup in the decode attention stage, making ultra-low-density attention practical for long-context inference.

Sparse attention reads only a small subset of the key-value cache, and how to treat the unread tail remains a key challenge. Discarding the tail biases the output, and sampling it as previous approaches do fails at reads of 5% and below, where the tail likely holds heavy hitters the selector missed. Our key observation is that the simplest possible proxy, one token that folds the entire tail into its count-aware mean, already yields lower output error than a sample at every read behind a practical selector. We further show in closed form that at low reads sampling nearly doubles the weight error of discarding while a single proxy stays below it. Building on these findings, we explore approximating the dense attention distribution with a few proxies that target the tail. We propose OpenAttention, a pipeline of clustering, ErrorGate and top-k selection followed by a count-aware mean proxy. To implement clustering and selection both efficiently and effectively, we design training-free Query-Geometry Clustering (QGC) and a Query-Geometry Selector (QGS), which compress the keys while respecting the query directions. Additionally, unlike prior methods that rank clusters by centroid alone, ErrorGate allocates the exact read by the estimated weight error of each cluster. On RULER-32K HARD with Llama-3.1-8B, OpenAttention retains 99% of dense accuracy at a 1% read. It also achieves state-of-the-art accuracy across models, context lengths and datasets. Our customized attention kernel, OpenAttention.flash, runs the decode attention stage 10$\times$ faster than dense attention at a 1% read.
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cs.CRcs.AIcs.LG Wonjune Seo, Joonhyuk Baek, Yeseong Jung et al. · Oct 22, 2026

MIG-COW addresses a critical vulnerability in deepfake detection: the difficulty of crafting adversarial examples that simultaneously fool both CNN and ViT architectures. The method combines momentum-integrated gradients with a consensus-orthogonal decomposition to separate shared vulnerabilities from model-specific decision cues. While it achieves near-perfect white-box success, the work is most valuable for highlighting how fragile cross-architecture transferability remains in practice.

Despite recent advances, deepfake detectors remain vulnerable to adversarial examples, particularly in diverse, real-world settings. We propose MIG-COW, a novel adversarial attack framework that generates highly generalizable and visually imperceptible adversarial examples. By combining momentum-integrated gradients with a consensus-orthogonal decomposition, MIG-COW captures both shared and model-specific vulnerabilities across heterogeneous CNN and ViT detectors. On the AADD-2025 Challenge benchmarks, MIG-COW achieves a 99.96% white-box attack success rate (ASR) with high perceptual similarity (SSIM), significantly outperforming existing baselines. However, its limited 7.16% ASR against official black-box targets - despite achieving the best overall score - highlights the ongoing challenge of transferability. We also demonstrate that incorporating low-performing but diverse models in the ensemble can degrade attack effectiveness, underscoring the need for careful surrogate model selection in real-world adversarial settings.
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cs.LGcs.AInlin.CD Tobias G\"obel, Miranda C.N. Cheng · Oct 22, 2026

Parametric dynamical systems supply a rare benchmark with analytic ground truth for weight-space methods, because bifurcation locations are known exactly. The paper extends JEPAWG—a joint-embedding hypernetwork originally developed for lattice field theories—to populations of forecasters trained across a grid of control parameters. Its core idea is to decode weights at unseen parameters and measure their parameter derivative $G(p) = \|\nabla_p \hat{\theta}(p)\|_F$, treating this response as an interpretable probe of local and global bifurcations. The work matters because it offers a falsifiable testbed for reading physical structure directly from the geometry of trained network weights.

Trained network weights are increasingly treated as data, but there is rarely ground truth about what a population of models should encode, which hampers systematic validation of weight-space methods. This makes parametric dynamical systems a natural test-bed: the dynamics change qualitatively at submanifolds of parameter space that are, in well-studied families, known analytically or numerically. Fine-tuning a forecasting network at each point of a parameter grid yields a model zoo indexed by a physical parameter, against which weight-space diagnostics can be checked. We build such model zoos for four dynamical systems and analyse them with JEPAWG, a recently proposed joint-embedding hypernetwork built around a learned parameter--weight representation. It was first introduced for neural samplers for lattice field theories, where its latent geometry located the phase transition and estimated the 2D Ising critical exponent. Applied to dynamical systems, JEPAWG is competitive on forecasting with a hypernetwork trained directly for that task, despite being supervised on the parameter--weight correspondence rather than on forecasts. Beyond forecasting, the norm of the parameter-derivative of the decoded weights locates Hopf points and curves, tracks a period-doubling cascade closely enough to give a qualitative estimate of the Feigenbaum constant, and detects a global bifurcation, which has no eigenvalue signature and is therefore invisible to linearisation. As such, JEPAWG provides interpretable insight into the dynamics that is not available from other hypernetworks. Together, these results indicate that JEPAWG is a workable instrument for reading physical structure off a population of trained networks.
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cs.AIcs.LG Aitor Oviedo-Madrid, Mabel Morales-Otero, Jose Gonzalez-Gomariz et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper addresses the gap between restrictive linear Gaussian Bayesian networks and computationally expensive fully semiparametric models for continuous variables. It proposes Semi-Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks (SLGBN), which preserve Gaussian conditional distributions while allowing nonlinear conditional means via generalized additive models with penalized B-splines. The core contribution is a unified framework that mixes linear and nonlinear nodes within a single network, learned through a greedy hill-climbing algorithm with BIC or an extended EBIC* score.

Bayesian networks for continuous variables often rely on restrictive assumptions: linear Gaussian models lack flexibility to capture nonlinear dependencies, while non-parametric approaches provide greater flexibility at a high computational cost. This creates a gap for modeling scenarios where variables are approximately Gaussian but exhibit nonlinear relationships. We introduce Semi-Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks (SLGBN), a novel class of continuous Bayesian networks designed to bridge this gap, preserving Gaussian conditional distributions while introducing nonlinear conditional mean functions. The proposed framework provides a unified probabilistic framework combining linear Gaussian and nonlinear Gaussian conditional models within the same Bayesian network Nonlinear conditional mean functions are estimated using generalized additive models (GAMs) with penalized B-splines. We present parameter estimation procedures for both types of nodes, as well as a greedy hill-climbing algorithm for learning the network structure under the SLGBN framework. To assess its performance, we compare SLGBN with other continuous Bayesian network models, including semiparametric Bayesian networks (SPBN) and Linear Gaussian Bayesian networks (LGBN). Experimental results evaluate both goodness of fit and the ability to recover the underlying network structure. The results show that, in the presence of nonlinear Gaussian relationships, SLGBN achieves better fit and improved structure recovery compared to alternative models, particularly when combined with the Extended Bayesian Information Criterion (EBIC*) score. Furthermore, by retaining Gaussian conditional distributions, SLGBN offers computational advantages over fully semiparametric approaches.
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eess.IVcs.AIcs.CV David Hamlyn, Sunny Chaudhary, Jonathon Hare et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Accurate intra-hour solar irradiance forecasting from ground-based sky images is essential for grid balancing and storage scheduling as PV penetration rises. GateFormer tackles this by embedding observed global horizontal irradiance directly into a Vision Transformer token stream, then producing two complementary forecasts—a multi-step trajectory and a direct final-horizon displacement—that are adaptively blended and residual-corrected in prediction space. The core claim is that this forecast-space decomposition, rather than conventional latent fusion or ensemble combination, yields consistent gains across three heterogeneous sky-imaging datasets.

Sub-hourly dispatch, balancing, and storage control increasingly depend on forecasts that anticipate rapid variability in solar generation. Accurate sky-image-based irradiance forecasting requires a combination of visual cloud dynamics with recent irradiance state while adapting to different short-term irradiance-change regimes. To address this, we introduce GateFormer, a GHI-conditioned dual-decoder ViT for intra-hour global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting through forecast-space decomposition. GateFormer embeds observed GHI into the visual token stream, allowing interaction with sky-image patch features through self-attention. From this shared representation, a Trajectory Head predicts future GHI sequence, while a Delta Head predicts final-horizon change from the latest observed GHI. The two final-horizon forecasts are adaptively weighted in prediction space, with magnitude- and direction-supervision targeting the remaining error. On the NREL-TSI benchmark, GateFormer attains 125.01 W/m^2 RMSE at +30 min, improving over a state-of-the-art transformer baseline by 9.6% under paired-timestamp evaluation. Across NREL-TSI, Chilbolton, and SIRTA, GateFormer achieves the lowest final-horizon RMSE among the evaluated baselines, with forecast skill of 22.97-28.86% relative to smart persistence. Component ablations show adaptive weighting outperforms both individual decoders and fixed averaging, distinguishing GateFormer from conventional forecast combination, while the supervised correction further reduces RMSE by 1.68 W/m^2 and MAE by 4.86 W/m^2. Ramp-regime diagnostics show larger gains during operationally important positive ramps, reducing RMSE by 26.27 W/m^2. These results identify forecast-space decomposition as an alternative forecasting formulation, with potential relevance to other multimodal short-horizon forecasting tasks and deployment using only sky images and measured GHI.
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cs.AIcs.CYcs.LG Ahmed M. Mahran · Oct 22, 2026

Mahran asks what AI evaluation can certify when both examinee and evaluator have perceptual limits. The paper models each agent as a partition over stimuli—inputs it cannot distinguish—and proves a one-sided bound: a sharper examinee can always emulate a coarser evaluator's expected behavior and hide extra capability, while a coarser examinee cannot hide its blind spots under exhaustive probing. This yields predictions about sandbagging, monitor evasion, and weight noise, plus a worrying corollary: exact imitation of a weaker model is undetectable by any behavioural evaluator. The results suggest that behavioural evaluation alone can only establish lower bounds on discrimination, never upper bounds on capability.

Replacing the judge can move a benchmark score, and models can be trained to hide capabilities. Both put the evaluator in question: what can it certify? We develop a partition theory of evaluation from one principle: judgement is bounded by perception. An agent's discrimination is the partition of its inputs into classes it cannot tell apart. Discrimination is necessary for capability but not sufficient, so bounds on it bear directly on whether evaluation can show that a model lacks an ability. We prove a one-sided bound. An examinee whose partition refines its evaluator's has the discrimination to pass every test the evaluator can grade, provided each input has an acceptable reply. We define the echo test, which accepts any reply the evaluator perceives as identical to the input, and show that it is complete for the tests the evaluator can grade. Passing therefore certifies at most a floor on discrimination, never a ceiling, and only a sharper evaluator can raise it. Used to detect concealment, echo-test failure points the wrong way: under exhaustive probing it flags every honestly weaker examinee and no concealer that presents as the evaluator's peer. Exact imitation of a weaker model is undetectable by any behavioural evaluator. We extend the bound to ensembles of monitors and to channels a model controls, explain published findings on judge disagreement and sandbagging, and derive testable predictions. A safety case that argues from behavioural evaluation alone that a model lacks an ability must assume the model's cooperation.
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cs.AIcs.CLcs.CR Yuchen Wu (University of Washington), Jerry Wei (Anthropic) · Oct 22, 2026

The paper asks how to predict the performance of a safety probe before it is trained. Its core finding is that probe error follows two scaling laws: a power-law floor in model size and a Hill-curve approach to that floor as labels increase. This matters because it could let safety teams budget labels and choose architectures for new models without expensive grid search.

Safety probes trained on a model's activations are a standard tool for monitoring language models in real time. Each time a new model is released or a new harm area needs to be monitored, the probe must be retrained, which requires new labels and a choice of probe architecture. Yet neither the model nor the labels tell us in advance how well the resulting probe will perform. Finding out requires training and comparing many probe configurations. In this paper, we ask whether probe performance can instead be predicted in advance from model size and the number of labels. Existing safety datasets are insufficient for this, as they are either limited in scale or already saturated. We therefore construct six new safety datasets of sufficient size and difficulty. On these datasets, we train two probe architectures on 20 base models from five model families, with 32 to $10^{6}$ labels for each model. We measure performance using probe error, defined as 1 - AUROC, where lower values are better. We find that probe error follows two simple scaling laws. First, the lowest probe error a model can reach falls as a power law in its size. Second, probe error decreases towards its floor as the number of examples increases; the slope increases as the target model size increases. Both laws hold across tasks, model families and probe architectures, and only their fitted constants differ. When fitted on the smallest models of a family, the laws predict the error of the next larger model to within 0.02 in 72% of cases. They also identify whether more labels or a larger model is the cheaper way to reach a target error in 73% of cases. Finally, they choose the probe architecture with an extra error of only 0.006 on average when they pick the worse one. These laws allow safety researchers to determine how to create the best probe for any given model and label budget.
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cs.LGcs.AI Shawn Im, James Oldfield, Adel Bibi et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Understanding how reasoning models compute their chain-of-thought is challenging because sampled responses vary widely, making it hard to isolate the effect of a prompt intervention. This paper proposes behavioral counterfactuals: keep a generated response fixed and compare next-token distributions under a control prompt and an intervention prompt. The authors train a residual-stream edit module to minimize the $\mathrm{KL}$ divergence between the edited and counterfactual output distributions, then attribute recovery to individual token edits and validate with activation patching. On ethical reasoning tasks, they find that filler and question tokens mediate a substantial share of the intervention’s influence even when the model never verbally acknowledges the suggestion.

Faithfully understanding the internal process that occurs as models form their chain of thought is an important problem with the rise in model capabilities. However, this remains challenging due to the variance in sampled responses, making it difficult to isolate the effects of interventions and compare model reasoning systematically. We propose a method for localizing and analyzing how a given intervention affects the model's reasoning through behavioral counterfactuals: given a fixed response, how does introducing an intervention to the prompt change the next-token distributions? We train a module to edit the residual stream such that it minimizes the KL divergence between the output distributions for a fixed response under a source prompt and its counterfactual target prompt. We find that matching the output distributions recovers the counterfactual behavior more effectively than standard activation reconstruction objectives and validate that attribution of the trained module outputs is effective for identifying causally important locations for counterfactual recovery. The attribution maps and visualizations of the downstream effects of model edits provide an interface for generating hypotheses about the original model's computation, which can then be tested with activation patching. In a case study on Gemma-4-E4B-it and DeepSeek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B, we investigate how a suggestion influences model reasoning even when it is not verbally acknowledged. Our analysis identifies representations at the question statement and filler tokens that mediate a substantial part of the suggestion's influence, with downstream effects such as changing the framing of the justification or even the final answer.
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cs.LGcs.AI Zhijie Zhong, Zhiwen Yu, Pengyu Li et al. · Oct 22, 2026

Time series anomaly detection has fragmented into siloed architectures—RNNs, Transformers, diffusion models, state space models, and LLMs—without a principled way to compare their detection assumptions. This survey attacks the chaos by separating detection paradigms (reconstruction, forecasting, generative, similarity-based, statistical, and LLM-driven) from backbone architectures, and formalizes a multivariate taxonomy that includes channel-correlation anomalies. It also delivers a critical empirical analysis of evaluation metrics and releases an open-source benchmark. The result is a much-needed map for researchers navigating a rapidly expanding landscape.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a foundational problem in data mining, aiming to identify observations that deviate significantly from nominal temporal patterns. Driven by escalating data volumes and application complexity, recent research has yielded diverse architectures, including diffusion models, state space models, and large language models (LLMs). However, existing surveys provide limited coverage of these emerging designs and lack a unified treatment of multivariate anomalies, cross-domain unified modeling, metric reliability, and contemporary evaluation challenges. To bridge these gaps, this survey delivers three core contributions: (1) We establish a refined anomaly categorization and a structured taxonomy of paradigms reflecting modern advances, comparing detection mechanisms and charting developmental trajectories across paradigms. (2) We provide an extensive analysis of evaluation methodologies and conduct comprehensive experiments to assess metric fidelity, complemented by an open-source benchmark repository encompassing algorithms, datasets, and evaluation tools. (3) We outline key open challenges, offering forward-looking perspectives on dynamic thresholding, model interpretability, zero-shot transfer, multi-modal alignment, and foundational models for time series. By addressing existing theoretical and empirical limitations, this survey establishes a coherent framework to guide future TSAD research and practical deployments.
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cs.CRcs.AIcs.LG Lohith Srikanth Pentapalli, Josette Riep, Justin Ouwerkerk et al. · Oct 22, 2026

The paper tackles the closed-world problem in cybersecurity intrusion detection, where supervised models trained on benign and insider-threat labels fail when confronted with entirely novel botnet activation attacks at test time. The core idea is a hybrid fuzzy ensemble that couples a gradient-optimized Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) classifier for known suspicious behaviors with a Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) module that flags out-of-distribution (OoD) samples via a raw Min Distance metric rather than traditional membership scores. The work is relevant because it directly targets the operational reality that security operations centers must detect attack vectors never seen during training, and it attempts to do so with an interpretable, rule-based architecture rather than a black-box neural network.

A fundamental paradox plagues the deployment of Machine Learning in cybersecurity: supervised models generalize poorly to novel, Out-of-Distribution (OoD) attacks, whereas unsupervised models often suffer from poor separability, leading to unmanageable false-alarm rates. This challenge is exemplified by the BETH dataset, a kernel-level benchmark in which the training data consists solely of benign and suspicious insider behaviors, whereas the test set consists almost entirely of novel botnet activation attacks. To bridge this detection gap, we propose a Hybrid Fuzzy Ensemble that synergizes the precision of supervised learning with the adaptability of unsupervised clustering. Our architecture integrates a gradient-optimized Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy classifier to act as an expert on known insider threats, with a parallel Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) module to detect geometric anomalies. A critical finding of our research is that traditional fuzzy membership scores degrade in high-dimensional feature spaces due to the curse of dimensionality. We overcome this by introducing a robust Min Distance metric that exploits the raw geometric isolation of botnet activation attacks. This approach yields a state-of-the-art AUROC of 0.9951 on the BETH test set, outperforming the original Isolation Forest baseline by 17.1%. By combining near-perfect OoD detection with the intrinsic interpretability of fuzzy logic, our framework offers a viable path toward robust, transparent, and autonomous network defense.