Wrong automatic routing of an IT support ticket can cost more than human triage. We evaluate cost-aware abstention as an offline, cost-conditional readiness assessment: select a routing policy on calibration data under explicit costs, then evaluate that frozen policy once on held-out test data. On a public 47,837-ticket, eight-class corpus, we compare four trained non-LLM classifiers with four large language models under zero- and few-shot prompting. Under the illustrative cost model (c_ok, c_triage, c_wrong) = (0, 1, 5), TF-IDF with logistic regression and a threshold of 0.60 selected on calibration reduces test cost from 0.763 to 0.472, a 38.1% relative reduction (paired ratio-bootstrap 95% CI [35.7%, 40.4%]), while lowering wrong routes from 15.3% to 3.5%. Frozen calibration-selected policies also beat both always-route and always-defer on held-out test data in 14 of 16 settings in a post-hoc cost-parameter analysis. The strongest prompted configuration reaches 0.477 accuracy on a stratified 1,000-ticket test subset, versus 0.879 for fine-tuned DistilBERT on the same tickets. Isotonic lowers expected calibration error without reliably improving discrimination: GPT-4o-mini few-shot has one confidence value before and after recalibration and correctness AUROC 0.500. We therefore report correctness AUROC and tie-aware risk-coverage area alongside ECE. At the analytically derived break-even probability 0.80, seven prompted configurations defer all tickets; Haiku few-shot routes only 19/1,000. An LLM-only agreement control and margin/entropy rejection baselines further separate calibration from discrimination. The findings are scoped to this dataset, prompt design, model endpoints, and illustrative costs; the work is an evaluation framework, not a new abstention algorithm or universal deployment certification.

Content caching via unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) becomes one of the solutions to maintain content delivery when terrestrial infrastructure is unavailable or disrupted. However, existing caching approaches often focus primarily on cache-hit performance or average delivery delay, without jointly addressing spatially heterogeneous and time-varying demand, content-specific deadlines, and uneven communication-energy consumption across UAVs. To address these challenges, we formulate a dynamic deadline- and energy-aware cache placement and replacement problem that jointly considers deadline misses, UAV-side communication energy, and inter-UAV energy imbalance. To achieve this, we first develop deadline- and energy-aware UBAC (DE-UBAC), an interpretable hierarchical rule-based realization that incorporates deadline-aware prioritization, cooperative placement, energy-aware coordination, and cache-update cost. However, predefined priorities and thresholds limit its adaptability under dynamically coupled network conditions. We therefore propose GRU-assisted Deadline- and Energy-aware Proximal Policy Optimization (GRU-DEPPO), which combines local and global GRU-based temporal representations with a centralized PPO actor-critic for adaptive cache placement and replacement. Simulation results show that GRU-DEPPO achieves the lowest deadline-miss rate and total UAV-side communication energy among the considered schemes. Compared with DE-UBAC, GRU-DEPPO reduces the deadline-miss rate by approximately 61% and inter-UAV energy imbalance by approximately 40%.

While functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) decoders reconstruct images and 3D objects, recovering the metric geometry of rooms from a moving viewpoint remains an open challenge. We introduce, to our knowledge for the first time, the task of reconstructing 3D layouts of held-out scenes using only the known camera trajectories and the fMRI signals of participants watching indoor walkthroughs, without any visual frames. The task is hard because of the temporal mismatch between rapid visual changes and blurred fMRI signals. Our method, DRAFT (Decoding and Reconstructing 3D room lAyouts from fMRI and Trajectories), extracts a compact layout representation from the early visual cortex and fuses this neural code with the geometric free space derived from camera motion. To evaluate it, we propose layout r, the Pearson correlation between predicted and ray-cast log depths. On ten held-out scenes (20 participants), DRAFT reaches a layout r of 0.480, outperforming the camera path alone (0.446) and seven fMRI decoders (at most 0.429). DRAFT also works as a plug-in that improves all seven decoders without retraining, raising their layout r from 0.171-0.429 to 0.487-0.493. Brain activity and camera motion can thus recover the metric layout of unseen rooms, a first step toward reconstructing the 3D spaces people see.

Modern Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) im- plementations now connect edge gateways, cloud dashboards and business applications. This improves visibility and remote monitoring. However it simultaneously exposes industrial traffic to various cyber threats including scanning, web attacks and Structured Query Language (SQL) injection (SQLi), phishing- driven credential theft, and command-and-control (C2) activity. Although rule-based tools remain useful for detecting known signatures, their efficacy decreases with minimally altered attacks or when alerts require manual investigation. This paper presents AIRO (Autonomous Intelligence-Driven Cybersecurity Risk Re- duction System), an efficient framework for IIoT monitoring and response. AIRO combines Apache Kafka streaming, attack- specific feature extraction, machine learning (ML) inference, confidence-based decision logic and risk reduction measures such as Internet Protocol (IP) blocking, account suspension and traffic limiting. We developed four specialized datasets for C2 beaconing, reconnaissance, SQLi, and phishing to evaluate AIRO. These datasets include noisy and overlapping characteristic distribu- tions to minimize label leakage. The best-performing models, primarily Gradient Boosting and LightGBM, achieve F1-scores up to 0.9229 while ensuring low-latency from event input to mitigation

Large language models (LLMs) differ in capabilities and costs, motivating routing methods that adaptively choose a model for each query. These methods rely on performance prediction: given a query, estimate whether a model will answer it correctly. Most routing methods train separate predictors of candidate models' performance to guide model selection. Our work shows that performance prediction only beats a simple baseline when the candidate model is suboptimal on the task or the performance predictor adds significant capacity relative to the candidate model. Specifically, we take a model's self-confidence, the probability it assigns to its chosen answer, as a baseline and study how much a performance predictor can improve on it. First, we show that any performance predictor that outperforms a model's self-confidence can be used to improve the model's loss: the predictor's advantage transfers exactly in log loss through recalibration. Second, accounting for the predictor's additional parameters, we bound its advantage by the model's suboptimality plus the gain from those parameters. Third, we extend our theoretical results to two-model cascades, which route queries to a more capable model when the first model is predicted to fail. Experiments with 16 language models on four benchmarks show that predictors gain a larger advantage over self-confidence on more suboptimal models. This advantage shrinks as models improve through finetuning. Cascading exhibits the same two patterns: predictor-based routing offers larger gains over confidence-based routing for more suboptimal models, and these gains diminish after finetuning.

Cancer care is a longitudinal, time-sensitive process requiring coordination among diverse healthcare professionals (HCPs), whose collaboration evolves throughout treatment. Prior studies link care team structure to patient outcomes, but the temporal dynamics of collaboration and their relationship to evolving patient risk remain poorly understood. We introduce a visual analytics framework for modeling and interpreting time-varying care team interactions in oncology. We construct dynamic collaboration networks from electronic health record (EHR)-mediated communication data and use a temporal graph neural network (TGNN) to estimate patient outcome risk over time. We then investigate how changes in care team composition and specialist participation relate to shifts in estimated risk across treatment stages. Our multi-view interactive system combines TGNN-based risk modeling with coordinated visualizations of care team networks, feature-level explanations from a surrogate logistic regression model, and exploratory what-if analysis. Without making causal claims, the system helps analysts examine how risk estimates co-evolve with collaboration patterns and identify care team characteristics associated with these changes. We demonstrate its utility through expert-guided analysis scenarios involving 505 patients with breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, evaluating its ability to reveal clinically meaningful collaboration patterns. This work improves the interpretability of temporal graph-based models in longitudinal, team-based healthcare, with potential applicability to other evolving collaborative settings.

Projected quantum kernels (PQKs) have emerged as a notable approach to circumvent the hardness of machine learning tasks arising from the exponential dimensionality of the quantum Hilbert space. However, recent PQK studies often rely heavily on extensive classical hyperparameter tuning of the radial basis function (RBF) kernel parameter and the support vector machine regularization parameter. The extensive tuning can mask the true representational power of the underlying PQKs induced by quantum feature maps, which has not been explored in detail. Thus, this work aims to expose the structural capabilities of PQKs by isolating and evaluating their native inductive bias through comparisons between untuned and tuned PQKs against the RBF baseline. Furthermore, we propose novel quantum feature maps that leverage two-qubit entanglement to capture multivariate correlations in IoT data. The results show that extensive tuning can lead to competitive performance architectures, while our proposed entanglement topologies exhibit a significantly stronger native inductive bias. This reveals that superior quantum architectural design can yield structurally better PQKs with improvements arising from quantum-mechanical properties rather than from classical hyperparameter tuning.

Accurate estimation of diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is critical for optimising photovoltaic system performance and energy forecasting yet remains challenging in regions lacking comprehensive ground-based instrumentation. Recent advancements using Vision Transformers (ViTs) trained on extensive sky image datasets have shown promise in replacing costly irradiance measurement equipment, but the scarcity of long-term, high-quality sky imagery significantly restricts practical implementation. Addressing this critical gap, this study proposes a novel dual-framework approach designed for data-scarce scenarios. First, calculated atmospheric parameters, including extraterrestrial irradiance and cyclic time encodings, are integrated to represent sky conditions without utilising any instrumentation. Next, a sequential pipeline initially predicts synthetic global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and uses it as a feature, to refine DHI estimation. Finally, a dual-parallel architecture simultaneously processes raw and overlay-enhanced fisheye sky images. Overlays are generated through unsupervised, physics-informed cloud segmentation to highlight dynamic sky features. Empirical validation is performed using data from the Chilbolton Observatory, chosen for its temperate climate and frequent cloud variability. To simulate data-scarce conditions, models are trained on a single month (e.g., January) and evaluated across a temporally disjoint, full-year test set. Under this setup, the sequential and dual-parallel frameworks achieve RMSE values within 2-3 W/m^2 and 1-6 W/m^2, respectively, of a state-of-the-art ViT trained on the complete dataset. By combining physics-informed modelling with unsupervised segmentation, the proposed method provides a scalable and cost-effective solution for DHI estimation, advancing solar resource assessment in data-constrained environments.

Continual learning requires a model to keep acquiring new skills and knowledge without compromising its existing capabilities. Parametric methods suffer from catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity. Non-parametric methods, such as prompts, skills, and harnesses, leverage in-context learning but are limited by context length and lossy plain-text compression. To effectively combine their complementary strengths, we propose HERD (Harness-Evolving Recursive Distillation), a hybrid continual learning framework that learns efficiently in the harness and internalizes experience into cumulative capabilities via distillation. On the harness side, HERD continually refines its skills to capture reusable patterns, while retaining high-residual examples that the skills fail to capture in a bounded memory. On the parameter side, HERD performs drift-constrained distillation with dual anchors, substantially reducing forgetting over long recursive runs. On the 25-stage task stream of TRACE+17, under fixed memory and compute budgets, HERD matches the strongest parametric baseline in new-task acquisition while exhibiting the least forgetting and the strongest retention of general capabilities.

Long-context models often use answer-bearing evidence less effectively when it appears away from a prompt boundary. We compare this position bias across Transformer, state-space, and hybrid Mamba architectures by moving one gold document through a fixed set of nine distractors. The evaluated Transformers show a beginning advantage that the evaluated state-space models lack, while both families favor evidence near the end. A matched pure-versus-hybrid Mamba comparison points in the same direction but remains statistically uncertain. The family difference appears among models that can answer the task. Transformer primacy reappears on synthetic retrieval, where state-space ceiling prevents a family comparison. A corpus swap within one state-space architecture changes overall accuracy without a detectable change in curve shape. Prompt changes can create or nearly remove a beginning advantage. Position remains decodable across architectures even when response curves differ, and attention concentration near initial tokens covaries with beginning sensitivity in the tested Transformer family. These exploratory results show that effective context use depends on the evaluated architecture family, capability, task, and prompt, without isolating the sequence mixer as the sole cause.

Mix-policy optimization incorporates off-policy expert data into the reinforcement learning (RL) loop to transcend the capability boundary of on-policy RL. However, existing methods either provide static full-trace guidance that suppresses self-exploration, or adopt expert prefix guidance without correctness guarantees, leading to suboptimal performance or even training collapse. In this paper, we propose MOER, a mix-policy optimization framework that harmonizes expert guidance with self-exploration. MOER injects a decaying expert chain-of-thought prefix into the prompt and lets the model complete the remaining reasoning, with the prefix length progressively annealed to encourage self-exploration. A selective rollback mechanism replaces failed completions with the original full expert trace, guaranteeing the correctness of every off-policy trajectory. Furthermore, a harmonized mix-policy objective optimizes on-policy tokens with a GRPO loss while supervising both expert prefix and completion tokens with a trust-region SFT loss, substantially stabilizing training. Extensive experiments show that MOER achieves the highest average scores in mathematical and general domain reasoning tasks, outperforming all basic and mix-policy baselines, and generalizes consistently across diverse tasks, model scales, and base model categories. Codes are available at https://github.com/CityU-MLO/MOER.

Predicting relative trained performance from architectural specifications can guide design when training costs limit experimentation. Neural Spectral Capacity (NSC) provides such a heuristic, but scores projections independently and assigns identical scores to compatible reorderings of the same layer configurations. We introduce Residual-Aware Neural Spectral Capacity (ResNSC) for Transformers, using a specification-derived statistical reference for accumulated residual updates to determine the input and residual-state statistics in each projection's capacity calculation, while retaining additive evaluation without data or instantiated weights. When residual widths vary, earlier choices affect later scores, so we augment NSC's allocator (NSC-DP) with residual history beyond its layer-and-budget state. ResNSC-DP jointly allocates residual and feed-forward widths under a resource budget, with certified bounds on the best numerically evaluated ResNSC score within a specified finite candidate set. At the 121M and 374M pretraining scales, selected architectures achieve lower mean perplexity than uniform, variable-width, and tapered allocations on FineWeb-Edu, WikiText-2, and LAMBADA at comparable parameter budgets. In inherited-weight LLaMA-7B pruning using the LoNAS supernet, ResNSC-DP improves eight-task average accuracy over NSC by 3.28--5.46 percentage points across eight matched parameter budgets. Paired reversals preserve the projection shapes and NSC scores yet worsen performance in both settings, exposing performance differences hidden by position-independent scoring. The code for this work is available at https://github.com/Optima-CityU/neural-spectral-capacity.

Active inference casts perception, learning and planning as variational inference, where the Expected Free Energy (EFE) defines the planning objective. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors, and that the resulting entropy-corrected objective is minimized by sum-product message passing (SP-MP) on modified factor functions. These formulations treat model uncertainty as inference over a finite set of known models. We extend them to planning during learning, where beliefs over the observation and transition parameters $\theta_A$, $\theta_B$ are Dirichlet priors. Closed-form Dirichlet updates are usually obtained by a structured mean-field factorization between parameters and states, but under exactly that factorization the information-gain corrections vanish. We resolve this by giving every factor its own parameter prior, frozen during a rollout. Conjugacy then makes each factor belief a product of a marginal over the categorical variables and a one-step Bayes posterior of the parameters. This reintroduces the datum-dependent parameter posteriors that mean-field factorization destroys. We show that evaluating the epistemic priors under the resulting Bethe joint recovers the information gains. Stationarity of this single closed-form objective yields SP-MP whose factor functions are augmented by the information-gain weight. Experiments on two grid POMDPs, in which only a planner that learns the model finds the safe route, show that the method plans to efficiently learn $\theta_A$ and $\theta_B$. It reaches the goal on every episode, whereas SP-MP planners with the same inference update plateau or take the risky route.

The number of attention heads in a transformer is usually set by convention or grid search. We test a simple heuristic for setting it in advance: estimate the intrinsic dimension of token representations without labels, and use roughly that many heads. We estimate intrinsic dimension with a nested-dropout VAE trained on DistilBERT embeddings of WikiText-2, choosing the KL weight at the knee of the VAE's rate-distortion curve rather than by hand. This gives $k^*=9.2$ (95% CI [8.6, 9.8]). In a small 4-layer transformer trained from scratch, 10 heads and 32 heads are statistically equivalent on SST-2 and on MRPC (paired TOST over 10 seeds, $\pm1$ point margin), with 69% fewer attention parameters for the 10-head model. Training 10 heads from the start also slightly outperforms training 32 heads and pruning to 10 (0.6 points, $p=0.008$). The evidence is narrow: two classification tasks, one small architecture, no pretrained models, and no formal link between intrinsic dimension and head count. We present the result as a practical heuristic worth testing at larger scale, not as a general principle.

Language models often produce semantically similar answers to open-ended questions, even when many plausible alternatives exist. Generating useful alternatives requires identifying both what the query calls for and what existing responses already cover. We introduce Gap Detection, a framework that searches for relevant but unoccupied directions in a shared text embedding space. Its objective, GapScore, combines query relevance (Demand) with dissimilarity to the nearest existing item (Defensibility). The framework optimizes this product on the unit sphere, maps candidate directions to concept words with a language model, and uses task-specific filtering and constrained prompting to turn those concepts into text. On five curated topics and 90 INFINITY-CHAT queries, the reported mean relative reductions in output Collision are 12.8% and 10.8%, respectively. We also instantiate the framework for generative engine optimization over four product markets and for iterative synthetic-data augmentation. In the latter setting, with 100 training examples per method, Gap Detection reduces Collision from 0.324 to 0.298 relative to undirected accumulation and increases the Vendi Score from 27.16 to 29.20; the accuracy difference is one example on a 40-example test set. Component ablations expose the trade-off between semantic separation and relevance, while also showing that better direction scores do not uniformly yield better downstream metrics. These results support explicit gap search as a practical mechanism for diversifying content, with task validity checked separately from geometric novelty.

Aggregate performance metrics do not identify local modelling inaccuracies in machine learning (ML) surrogates used for thermal-system optimisation. This study assesses local modelling strength through validation-based reliability screening and post-optimisation residual assessment. A two-stage residual learning (TSRL) framework, built on artificial neural networks (ANNs), is developed for modelling-strength-informed and domain-constrained optimisation of thermal systems. Within the TSRL framework, a base ANN predicts the process output, and a residual ANN learns the signed residuals left by the base ANN. The TSRL framework is implemented on two case studies of thermal systems, including 817 simulation observations of a crude distillation unit and operating records from a 395 MW industrial gas turbine. The TSRL framework reduces the test root mean square error (RMSE) from 10.3 g/s to 4.7 g/s for Fuel Oil in the refinery dataset and from 151 kJ/kWh to 105 kJ/kWh for turbine heat rate (THR). The base ANNs trained within TSRL are embedded in domain-constrained optimisation problems, and the modelling strength at each computed solution is assessed using the locked residual-score threshold. Each computed solution receives a good modelled region (GMR) or weak modelled region (WMR) label to inform ML model-based decision-making for safety-critical operation of thermal systems.

Verifiable instruction-following benchmarks emphasize output-constraint satisfaction but can overlook whether responses meaningfully answer the underlying request, creating an evaluation blind spot. We show that frontier models can receive full credit for responses with little substantive answer content. Using the same verifier-based criterion as a training reward can induce reward hacking, as publicly released checkpoints exhibit higher constraint satisfaction but lower response quality after reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards. To address this reward hacking, we introduce CALIF, a lightweight method that augments verifier rewards with a calibrated likelihood-based bonus to preserve response quality. CALIF evaluates response likelihood under the request alone using the existing frozen reference policy, requiring no additional judge or learned reward model. Across models ranging from 1.7B to 8B in reasoning and non-reasoning modes, CALIF improves constraint satisfaction on IFBench while maintaining response quality near or above pre-RL levels. It also outperforms corresponding base policies in 40 of 45 model-metric comparisons across three rubric-based instruction-following benchmarks, demonstrating gains beyond training verifiers.

Accurate path loss (PL) estimation is essential for wireless network planning and optimization. This paper proposes HankelKANet, a lightweight physics-inspired network for PL estimation that structurally embeds electromagnetic propagation characteristics into the neural architecture. Built on a single residual UNet backbone, the proposed model integrates urban layout features with a convolutional Kolmogorov-Arnold network(KAN). Specifically, the convolutional kernels are parameterized by the radial amplitudes of the zeroth- and first-order Hankel functions. This formulation acts as a physics-inspired nonlinear distance encoding, enabling the network to capture dominant attenuation characteristics directly without requiring additional physics-based loss terms. Experimental results demonstrate that HankelKANet achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and efficiency on both the simulated RadioMapSeer dataset and the real-world Huawei RSRPSet. Compared with the leading baseline, PEFNet, it reduces the parameter count by 78% and lowers the RMSE by 16.96% on the simulated data, while further exhibiting robust cross-dataset transferability and high data efficiency during target-domain adaptation. To interpret these empirical gains, we mathematically establish a parameter-conditional spatial gradient bound. Using discrete Dirichlet energy (DDE) and Jacobian sensitivity heatmaps, we empirically verify that this physical encoding intrinsically constrains the network's spatial derivatives. This structural smoothness effectively eliminates non-physical spatial ripples, preventing overfitting to simulator artifacts and serving as the fundamental driver for robust real world generalization.

Regression models used in real-world applications are often challenged by noise, outliers, data heterogeneity, and asymmetric error characteristics, which severely limit the effectiveness of conventional point-wise learning models. While twin support vector regression (TSVR) partially addresses these issues through the use of nonparallel regression bounds, it still relies on individual samples as basic learning units. As a result, TSVR remains highly sensitive to noisy and contaminated observations and fails to leverage the underlying structural and regional information inherent in complex datasets, leading to suboptimal robustness and generalization performance. To address these limitations, we introduce granular ball twin support vector regression (GBTSVR) and its quantile extension, granular ball twin support vector quantile regression (GB-TSVQR). The proposed models integrate granular ball computing with TSVR, replacing individual data points with compact, structure-preserving granular balls as fundamental learning units. This region-level representation effectively suppresses noise and outliers while preserving intrinsic data geometry, thereby enhancing robustness, stability, and generalization. GBTSVR constructs nonparallel lower- and upper-bound regression functions over granular balls, significantly reducing sensitivity to sample-level perturbations. Building upon this framework, GB-TSVQR further incorporates quantile regression principles to simultaneously capture heterogeneous trends and asymmetric error distributions across different quantile levels. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets, time-series benchmarks, and outlier-contaminated data demonstrate that the proposed GBTSVR and GB-TSVQR consistently outperform state-of-the-art regression models.

Bias audits of multilingual language models usually compare a model's average stereotype score in English with its average in another language and read the difference as a difference in fairness. We ask how much of that difference is noise. Auditing ten open models in eight languages, we measure how far scores move when English test items are merely reworded, test every language shift item by item, and check that the test catches shifts we inject on purpose. In all 70 model-language pairs the stereotype score falls below its English level, and for Hindi, Korean and Swahili the drop clearly exceeds what rewording English produces; most of it comes from StereoSet items. Judging every translation, we find that imperfect ones drop more, but faithful translations alone drop nearly as much. Still, a lower average does not show that a model is fairer. An item's English score predicts its translated score far less well than its reworded score (correlation 0.23, 0.27 on faithful translations, vs. 0.48), while scores stay as far from neutral, models agree on translated items, and within Hindi or Spanish a translated item's score correlates with its own rewording at 0.84 and 0.82. The average cannot distinguish lower bias from a different pattern of item-level scores. We also document three common pipeline errors that silently erase bias signal, and release our code.