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cs.CYcs.AI Delaram Golpayegani, Harshvardhan J. Pandit, Declan O'Sullivan et al. · Oct 22, 2026
As the use of AI, and consequently its harms, becomes more prevalent, the global discourse around AI has become increasingly risk-aware. With new risks emerging more frequently than ever, a key challenge is how to represent, document, and catalogue AI risks in an effective, interoperable, and queryable manner. Additionally, the European Union (EU) AI Act's requirements for "high-risk" AI systems to manage and document the risks creates the need for open and interoperable tools, methods, and standards that facilitate AI risk management in an ever-changing environment. In this paper, we present ontologies and taxonomies developed to assist with risk management and documentation, in line with the requirements of the EU the AI Act. We developed the AI Risk Ontology (AIRO) to specify AI use cases and their associated risks, complemented by the Vocabulary of AI Risks (VAIR), which populates AIRO with taxonomies of concepts. Key international standards on AI and risk, namely ISO/IEC 23894 on AI risk management and ISO/IEC 22989 on AI terminology informed the development of the ontologies. To promote reuse and enable multi-regulatory compliance, AIRO and VAIR have been integrated in the Data Privacy Vocabulary (DPV) through a consensus-building process, expanding DPV's scope from data to AI.
As the use of AI, and consequently its harms, becomes more prevalent, the global discourse around AI has become increasingly risk-aware. With new risks emerging more frequently than ever, a key challenge is how to represent, document, and catalogue AI risks in an effective, interoperable, and queryable manner. Additionally, the European Union (EU) AI Act's requirements for "high-risk" AI systems to manage and document the risks creates the need for open and interoperable tools, methods, and standards that facilitate AI risk management in an ever-changing environment. In this paper, we present ontologies and taxonomies developed to assist with risk management and documentation, in line with the requirements of the EU the AI Act. We developed the AI Risk Ontology (AIRO) to specify AI use cases and their associated risks, complemented by the Vocabulary of AI Risks (VAIR), which populates AIRO with taxonomies of concepts. Key international standards on AI and risk, namely ISO/IEC 23894 on AI risk management and ISO/IEC 22989 on AI terminology informed the development of the ontologies. To promote reuse and enable multi-regulatory compliance, AIRO and VAIR have been integrated in the Data Privacy Vocabulary (DPV) through a consensus-building process, expanding DPV's scope from data to AI.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Aman Behera, Namit Solanki, Mehul Anand · Oct 22, 2026
Long-context models often use answer-bearing evidence less effectively when it appears away from a prompt boundary. We compare this position bias across Transformer, state-space, and hybrid Mamba architectures by moving one gold document through a fixed set of nine distractors. The evaluated Transformers show a beginning advantage that the evaluated state-space models lack, while both families favor evidence near the end. A matched pure-versus-hybrid Mamba comparison points in the same direction but remains statistically uncertain. The family difference appears among models that can answer the task. Transformer primacy reappears on synthetic retrieval, where state-space ceiling prevents a family comparison. A corpus swap within one state-space architecture changes overall accuracy without a detectable change in curve shape. Prompt changes can create or nearly remove a beginning advantage. Position remains decodable across architectures even when response curves differ, and attention concentration near initial tokens covaries with beginning sensitivity in the tested Transformer family. These exploratory results show that effective context use depends on the evaluated architecture family, capability, task, and prompt, without isolating the sequence mixer as the sole cause.
Long-context models often use answer-bearing evidence less effectively when it appears away from a prompt boundary. We compare this position bias across Transformer, state-space, and hybrid Mamba architectures by moving one gold document through a fixed set of nine distractors. The evaluated Transformers show a beginning advantage that the evaluated state-space models lack, while both families favor evidence near the end. A matched pure-versus-hybrid Mamba comparison points in the same direction but remains statistically uncertain. The family difference appears among models that can answer the task. Transformer primacy reappears on synthetic retrieval, where state-space ceiling prevents a family comparison. A corpus swap within one state-space architecture changes overall accuracy without a detectable change in curve shape. Prompt changes can create or nearly remove a beginning advantage. Position remains decodable across architectures even when response curves differ, and attention concentration near initial tokens covaries with beginning sensitivity in the tested Transformer family. These exploratory results show that effective context use depends on the evaluated architecture family, capability, task, and prompt, without isolating the sequence mixer as the sole cause.
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cs.CLcs.AI Gabriel Lars Sabadin, Dr Nicola Harding, Sarah Kingston · Oct 22, 2026
Content warning: this paper quotes slurs and hateful statements from published test suites; the racial slur among them is masked. Automated systems decide at scale which messages are harmful, and they decide unevenly. Classifiers label African American English as offensive up to twice as often as other English, the accounts of prominent drag queens can score as more toxic than those of white nationalists, and safety behaviour that holds in English collapses in low-resource languages. We argue that over-flagging and under-protection share one cause: deciding harm from vocabulary and surface form rather than from what a message does. We organise the evidence into seven failure modes and argue, as testable hypotheses, that harmful behaviours (a request for secrecy, a demand for payment, an attempt to isolate someone) travel across languages better than the words that express them. We propose an evaluation protocol that makes the gap between the best- and worst-served language communities a headline result, and show that the naive gap is inflated under equal service and that its usual bootstrap interval is unreliable. Applied to five open systems in eleven languages, from a keyword lexicon to two current multilingual guard models, the protocol finds that none reaches native-speaker accuracy at separating harmful function from harmless form (51 of 55 system-language pairs fall short); that greater capability raises discrimination in nine languages while leaving Arabic and romanised Hindi near chance, so the gap between the best- and worst-served languages grows with capability; that one system both over-flags and under-protects the same language most; and that a language a system reads worst can look the most fairly treated when only false positives are reported.
Content warning: this paper quotes slurs and hateful statements from published test suites; the racial slur among them is masked. Automated systems decide at scale which messages are harmful, and they decide unevenly. Classifiers label African American English as offensive up to twice as often as other English, the accounts of prominent drag queens can score as more toxic than those of white nationalists, and safety behaviour that holds in English collapses in low-resource languages. We argue that over-flagging and under-protection share one cause: deciding harm from vocabulary and surface form rather than from what a message does. We organise the evidence into seven failure modes and argue, as testable hypotheses, that harmful behaviours (a request for secrecy, a demand for payment, an attempt to isolate someone) travel across languages better than the words that express them. We propose an evaluation protocol that makes the gap between the best- and worst-served language communities a headline result, and show that the naive gap is inflated under equal service and that its usual bootstrap interval is unreliable. Applied to five open systems in eleven languages, from a keyword lexicon to two current multilingual guard models, the protocol finds that none reaches native-speaker accuracy at separating harmful function from harmless form (51 of 55 system-language pairs fall short); that greater capability raises discrimination in nine languages while leaving Arabic and romanised Hindi near chance, so the gap between the best- and worst-served languages grows with capability; that one system both over-flags and under-protects the same language most; and that a language a system reads worst can look the most fairly treated when only false positives are reported.
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cs.AIcs.CL Arnon Mazza, Elad Levi · Oct 22, 2026
Policy enforcement for LLM agents has shifted from single-turn content moderation to compound, application-specific policies evaluated over multi-turn transcripts and tool-call trajectories. Fine-tuned guardrail models are efficient but degrade on compound policies, and while LLM-as-a-judge approaches achieve higher accuracy, they incur high inference cost and tend to produce unstable predictions. Neurosymbolic methods offer a natural alternative, decomposing the policy into narrow neural decisions composed under explicit logic. However, existing symbolic layers lack the required expressiveness and are optimized against fixed data rather than the policy itself. To address this, we introduce SCOPE, which compiles a policy into an executable program of neural predicates executed by small models, deterministic extractors, and code that composes their outputs. The program is optimized jointly with its training data, using adversarial generation of counterexamples that target where the program deviates from the policy. We evaluate SCOPE on a benchmark of real-world policy tasks against prompt optimization, task decomposition, and workflow generation methods, achieving the highest average accuracy across tasks and models. Programs optimized with the weakest executor transfer to other models without further optimization. This allows them to be deployed in production on inexpensive models, where they reach accuracy comparable to frontier reasoning models. Unlike these monolithic models, SCOPE produces substantially more stable predictions, and each verdict is interpretable through the predicate outputs that produced it. Additionally, we validate the key components of our method through an ablation study. SCOPE thus enables reliable, interpretable, and efficient policy enforcement at production scale.
Policy enforcement for LLM agents has shifted from single-turn content moderation to compound, application-specific policies evaluated over multi-turn transcripts and tool-call trajectories. Fine-tuned guardrail models are efficient but degrade on compound policies, and while LLM-as-a-judge approaches achieve higher accuracy, they incur high inference cost and tend to produce unstable predictions. Neurosymbolic methods offer a natural alternative, decomposing the policy into narrow neural decisions composed under explicit logic. However, existing symbolic layers lack the required expressiveness and are optimized against fixed data rather than the policy itself. To address this, we introduce SCOPE, which compiles a policy into an executable program of neural predicates executed by small models, deterministic extractors, and code that composes their outputs. The program is optimized jointly with its training data, using adversarial generation of counterexamples that target where the program deviates from the policy. We evaluate SCOPE on a benchmark of real-world policy tasks against prompt optimization, task decomposition, and workflow generation methods, achieving the highest average accuracy across tasks and models. Programs optimized with the weakest executor transfer to other models without further optimization. This allows them to be deployed in production on inexpensive models, where they reach accuracy comparable to frontier reasoning models. Unlike these monolithic models, SCOPE produces substantially more stable predictions, and each verdict is interpretable through the predicate outputs that produced it. Additionally, we validate the key components of our method through an ablation study. SCOPE thus enables reliable, interpretable, and efficient policy enforcement at production scale.
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cs.AI Md. Jalil Piran · Oct 22, 2026
Capability benchmarks measure what large language models can do, but not whether their recommendations remain appropriate as decision conditions change. This paper proposes a trajectory-based measurement framework and prospective validation protocol for artificial wisdom, defined behaviorally as context-sensitive regulation of judgment. Versioned reference specifications determine admissible responses and transition materiality before evaluation. Seven stage-level criteria assess judgment under current conditions, while two transition components assess material-update adequacy and commitment-preserving stability. Stability requires prior adequacy; switching within registered commitment classes is permitted, and persistent error earns no stability credit. A nine-component profile is primary, with a secondary bottleneck score and separate critical-failure reporting. Three simplified simulations examine precision, bottleneck estimation, and sensitivity to model-family count. A single-criterion simulation met its precision criteria at 24 scenarios per domain. Near a bottleneck tie, the estimated minimum had a downward bias of 0.55 points at that size. A simplified incremental-prediction simulation detected a Brier improvement of 0.027 with probabilities of .508 and .742 using eight and twelve families, respectively; it does not establish power for the operational protocol. An exploratory predecessor-rubric study comprising 71 evaluation records illustrates aggregation sensitivity but does not validate the proposed instrument. The twelve-family target remains provisional pending feasibility assessment and calibration of the complete analysis. Whether the profile predicts independent decision outcomes beyond capability remains an open empirical question.
Capability benchmarks measure what large language models can do, but not whether their recommendations remain appropriate as decision conditions change. This paper proposes a trajectory-based measurement framework and prospective validation protocol for artificial wisdom, defined behaviorally as context-sensitive regulation of judgment. Versioned reference specifications determine admissible responses and transition materiality before evaluation. Seven stage-level criteria assess judgment under current conditions, while two transition components assess material-update adequacy and commitment-preserving stability. Stability requires prior adequacy; switching within registered commitment classes is permitted, and persistent error earns no stability credit. A nine-component profile is primary, with a secondary bottleneck score and separate critical-failure reporting. Three simplified simulations examine precision, bottleneck estimation, and sensitivity to model-family count. A single-criterion simulation met its precision criteria at 24 scenarios per domain. Near a bottleneck tie, the estimated minimum had a downward bias of 0.55 points at that size. A simplified incremental-prediction simulation detected a Brier improvement of 0.027 with probabilities of .508 and .742 using eight and twelve families, respectively; it does not establish power for the operational protocol. An exploratory predecessor-rubric study comprising 71 evaluation records illustrates aggregation sensitivity but does not validate the proposed instrument. The twelve-family target remains provisional pending feasibility assessment and calibration of the complete analysis. Whether the profile predicts independent decision outcomes beyond capability remains an open empirical question.
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cs.DCcs.AIcs.NI Haotian Zheng, Zhanwei Wang, Kaibin Huang · Oct 22, 2026
Space data centers (SpaceDCs) are emerging as platforms for large language models (LLMs), supported by continuous solar-energy harvesting and high-speed interconnections. The mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture supports distributed LLM inference by deploying experts across satellites. However, skewed expert activation creates uneven computation power demands despite uniform solar-power supply at the dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). Consequently, active experts remain power-constrained while harvested power at idle experts is underused. These reduce inference efficiency and increase latency. To address this supply-demand mismatch, we propose the SpaceWPT framework, which uses inter-satellite laser-based wireless power transfer (WPT) to redistribute harvested power. The key design challenge is to balance the computation demands of power-donating and power-receiving satellites under WPT losses: transferring more power accelerates computation at the receiver but leaves less power for the donor. After deriving design principles that simplify WPT control, we characterize the resulting latency tradeoff through a tractable surrogate of average inference latency. Minimizing the surrogate yields a novel two-sided water-filling strategy that determines whether each active expert donates, retains, or receives power according to the water level and its WPT link efficiency. Simulations with Mixtral-8x7B and Phi-3.5-MoE show up to 29.25% lower inference latency than without WPT, with larger gains under more compact formations and higher transfer efficiencies.
Space data centers (SpaceDCs) are emerging as platforms for large language models (LLMs), supported by continuous solar-energy harvesting and high-speed interconnections. The mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture supports distributed LLM inference by deploying experts across satellites. However, skewed expert activation creates uneven computation power demands despite uniform solar-power supply at the dawn-dusk sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). Consequently, active experts remain power-constrained while harvested power at idle experts is underused. These reduce inference efficiency and increase latency. To address this supply-demand mismatch, we propose the SpaceWPT framework, which uses inter-satellite laser-based wireless power transfer (WPT) to redistribute harvested power. The key design challenge is to balance the computation demands of power-donating and power-receiving satellites under WPT losses: transferring more power accelerates computation at the receiver but leaves less power for the donor. After deriving design principles that simplify WPT control, we characterize the resulting latency tradeoff through a tractable surrogate of average inference latency. Minimizing the surrogate yields a novel two-sided water-filling strategy that determines whether each active expert donates, retains, or receives power according to the water level and its WPT link efficiency. Simulations with Mixtral-8x7B and Phi-3.5-MoE show up to 29.25% lower inference latency than without WPT, with larger gains under more compact formations and higher transfer efficiencies.
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cs.LGcs.AI Xuyang Zhong, Jiuding Yang, Yiwen Guo et al. · Oct 22, 2026
Mix-policy optimization incorporates off-policy expert data into the reinforcement learning (RL) loop to transcend the capability boundary of on-policy RL. However, existing methods either provide static full-trace guidance that suppresses self-exploration, or adopt expert prefix guidance without correctness guarantees, leading to suboptimal performance or even training collapse. In this paper, we propose MOER, a mix-policy optimization framework that harmonizes expert guidance with self-exploration. MOER injects a decaying expert chain-of-thought prefix into the prompt and lets the model complete the remaining reasoning, with the prefix length progressively annealed to encourage self-exploration. A selective rollback mechanism replaces failed completions with the original full expert trace, guaranteeing the correctness of every off-policy trajectory. Furthermore, a harmonized mix-policy objective optimizes on-policy tokens with a GRPO loss while supervising both expert prefix and completion tokens with a trust-region SFT loss, substantially stabilizing training. Extensive experiments show that MOER achieves the highest average scores in mathematical and general domain reasoning tasks, outperforming all basic and mix-policy baselines, and generalizes consistently across diverse tasks, model scales, and base model categories. Codes are available at https://github.com/CityU-MLO/MOER.
Mix-policy optimization incorporates off-policy expert data into the reinforcement learning (RL) loop to transcend the capability boundary of on-policy RL. However, existing methods either provide static full-trace guidance that suppresses self-exploration, or adopt expert prefix guidance without correctness guarantees, leading to suboptimal performance or even training collapse. In this paper, we propose MOER, a mix-policy optimization framework that harmonizes expert guidance with self-exploration. MOER injects a decaying expert chain-of-thought prefix into the prompt and lets the model complete the remaining reasoning, with the prefix length progressively annealed to encourage self-exploration. A selective rollback mechanism replaces failed completions with the original full expert trace, guaranteeing the correctness of every off-policy trajectory. Furthermore, a harmonized mix-policy objective optimizes on-policy tokens with a GRPO loss while supervising both expert prefix and completion tokens with a trust-region SFT loss, substantially stabilizing training. Extensive experiments show that MOER achieves the highest average scores in mathematical and general domain reasoning tasks, outperforming all basic and mix-policy baselines, and generalizes consistently across diverse tasks, model scales, and base model categories. Codes are available at https://github.com/CityU-MLO/MOER.
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cs.AIcs.MA Geetha Charan, Vedant Balasubramaniam, Manojkumar Patil et al. · Oct 22, 2026
Existing agricultural advisories to farmers suffer from several limitations: (a) remain largely expert-driven, (b) do not adequately account for in-season weather, and (c) do not scale to individual farms. In this paper, our objective is to close these gaps by developing Agri-SCHOLAR (Simulation-Grounded Crop Harvest Optimization with LLM-Guided In-Season Advisory Rollouts). Agri-SCHOLAR is a rolling, in-season advisory framework that issues, at intervals of every few days or every week, a personalized advisory using the following information: soil and crop properties, observed weather to date, short-range forecast of weather, and a season extrapolation of weather based on historical analogs. The novelty and depth of Agri-SCHOLAR lies in each advisory being produced by a closed-loop system which couples multiple LLM agents with a powerful crop simulator (such as APSIM in our case). The simulator crucially serves as an evaluation oracle. In Agri-SCHOLAR, the LLM agents propose agronomically sound and feasible bounds on actionable parameters and an optimizer searches within those bounds against a multi-objective reward spanning yield, resource utilization, and economic feasibility. We conduct a detailed 11-year analysis of the maize crop in two selected locations of South Asia and show that Agri-SCHOLAR consistently outperforms the region's standard packages of practice and satisfactorily addresses the limitations of existing agricultural advisories.
Existing agricultural advisories to farmers suffer from several limitations: (a) remain largely expert-driven, (b) do not adequately account for in-season weather, and (c) do not scale to individual farms. In this paper, our objective is to close these gaps by developing Agri-SCHOLAR (Simulation-Grounded Crop Harvest Optimization with LLM-Guided In-Season Advisory Rollouts). Agri-SCHOLAR is a rolling, in-season advisory framework that issues, at intervals of every few days or every week, a personalized advisory using the following information: soil and crop properties, observed weather to date, short-range forecast of weather, and a season extrapolation of weather based on historical analogs. The novelty and depth of Agri-SCHOLAR lies in each advisory being produced by a closed-loop system which couples multiple LLM agents with a powerful crop simulator (such as APSIM in our case). The simulator crucially serves as an evaluation oracle. In Agri-SCHOLAR, the LLM agents propose agronomically sound and feasible bounds on actionable parameters and an optimizer searches within those bounds against a multi-objective reward spanning yield, resource utilization, and economic feasibility. We conduct a detailed 11-year analysis of the maize crop in two selected locations of South Asia and show that Agri-SCHOLAR consistently outperforms the region's standard packages of practice and satisfactorily addresses the limitations of existing agricultural advisories.
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cs.AI Minhyeok Lee · Oct 22, 2026
We present TwinStore, a source-available synthetic consumer platform for physical retail built on vision--language models. TwinStore turns a store into a digital twin---from 82 ready-made formats, a floor-plan image or phone photos of its shelves---and fills it with synthetic shoppers who plan a trip, walk the aisles and decide what to buy by looking at rendered shelves with packs, price tags and promotion signs. Every trip ends in a receipt, so a layout, price, pack or promotion can be tried on the same shoppers before it reaches the store. Around this core, TwinStore provides 3D playback, paired comparisons and layout optimization, shopper interviews, a trade-area model, counterfactual edits of real shelf photos, a marketing studio with eleven tools, and an assistant that turns a plain sentence into a drafted study or an answer grounded in a run's own numbers. In a held-out validation on eleven public datasets, simulated receipts approach the households' own natural variation (category-mix divergence 0.017--0.018 against a real drift of 0.012), price elasticities fall inside the range measured in the field, and three independent decision models agree. TwinStore runs on cloud or on-device models and is distributed with installers for Windows, macOS and Linux.
We present TwinStore, a source-available synthetic consumer platform for physical retail built on vision--language models. TwinStore turns a store into a digital twin---from 82 ready-made formats, a floor-plan image or phone photos of its shelves---and fills it with synthetic shoppers who plan a trip, walk the aisles and decide what to buy by looking at rendered shelves with packs, price tags and promotion signs. Every trip ends in a receipt, so a layout, price, pack or promotion can be tried on the same shoppers before it reaches the store. Around this core, TwinStore provides 3D playback, paired comparisons and layout optimization, shopper interviews, a trade-area model, counterfactual edits of real shelf photos, a marketing studio with eleven tools, and an assistant that turns a plain sentence into a drafted study or an answer grounded in a run's own numbers. In a held-out validation on eleven public datasets, simulated receipts approach the households' own natural variation (category-mix divergence 0.017--0.018 against a real drift of 0.012), price elasticities fall inside the range measured in the field, and three independent decision models agree. TwinStore runs on cloud or on-device models and is distributed with installers for Windows, macOS and Linux.
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cs.LGcs.AI Chenyu Zhu, Ruoyu Zhao, Zhichao Lu · Oct 22, 2026
Predicting relative trained performance from architectural specifications can guide design when training costs limit experimentation. Neural Spectral Capacity (NSC) provides such a heuristic, but scores projections independently and assigns identical scores to compatible reorderings of the same layer configurations. We introduce Residual-Aware Neural Spectral Capacity (ResNSC) for Transformers, using a specification-derived statistical reference for accumulated residual updates to determine the input and residual-state statistics in each projection's capacity calculation, while retaining additive evaluation without data or instantiated weights. When residual widths vary, earlier choices affect later scores, so we augment NSC's allocator (NSC-DP) with residual history beyond its layer-and-budget state. ResNSC-DP jointly allocates residual and feed-forward widths under a resource budget, with certified bounds on the best numerically evaluated ResNSC score within a specified finite candidate set. At the 121M and 374M pretraining scales, selected architectures achieve lower mean perplexity than uniform, variable-width, and tapered allocations on FineWeb-Edu, WikiText-2, and LAMBADA at comparable parameter budgets. In inherited-weight LLaMA-7B pruning using the LoNAS supernet, ResNSC-DP improves eight-task average accuracy over NSC by 3.28--5.46 percentage points across eight matched parameter budgets. Paired reversals preserve the projection shapes and NSC scores yet worsen performance in both settings, exposing performance differences hidden by position-independent scoring. The code for this work is available at https://github.com/Optima-CityU/neural-spectral-capacity.
Predicting relative trained performance from architectural specifications can guide design when training costs limit experimentation. Neural Spectral Capacity (NSC) provides such a heuristic, but scores projections independently and assigns identical scores to compatible reorderings of the same layer configurations. We introduce Residual-Aware Neural Spectral Capacity (ResNSC) for Transformers, using a specification-derived statistical reference for accumulated residual updates to determine the input and residual-state statistics in each projection's capacity calculation, while retaining additive evaluation without data or instantiated weights. When residual widths vary, earlier choices affect later scores, so we augment NSC's allocator (NSC-DP) with residual history beyond its layer-and-budget state. ResNSC-DP jointly allocates residual and feed-forward widths under a resource budget, with certified bounds on the best numerically evaluated ResNSC score within a specified finite candidate set. At the 121M and 374M pretraining scales, selected architectures achieve lower mean perplexity than uniform, variable-width, and tapered allocations on FineWeb-Edu, WikiText-2, and LAMBADA at comparable parameter budgets. In inherited-weight LLaMA-7B pruning using the LoNAS supernet, ResNSC-DP improves eight-task average accuracy over NSC by 3.28--5.46 percentage points across eight matched parameter budgets. Paired reversals preserve the projection shapes and NSC scores yet worsen performance in both settings, exposing performance differences hidden by position-independent scoring. The code for this work is available at https://github.com/Optima-CityU/neural-spectral-capacity.
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cs.AIcs.LG Benedikt Waldeck · Oct 22, 2026
Active inference casts perception, learning and planning as variational inference, where the Expected Free Energy (EFE) defines the planning objective. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors, and that the resulting entropy-corrected objective is minimized by sum-product message passing (SP-MP) on modified factor functions. These formulations treat model uncertainty as inference over a finite set of known models. We extend them to planning during learning, where beliefs over the observation and transition parameters $\theta_A$, $\theta_B$ are Dirichlet priors. Closed-form Dirichlet updates are usually obtained by a structured mean-field factorization between parameters and states, but under exactly that factorization the information-gain corrections vanish. We resolve this by giving every factor its own parameter prior, frozen during a rollout. Conjugacy then makes each factor belief a product of a marginal over the categorical variables and a one-step Bayes posterior of the parameters. This reintroduces the datum-dependent parameter posteriors that mean-field factorization destroys. We show that evaluating the epistemic priors under the resulting Bethe joint recovers the information gains. Stationarity of this single closed-form objective yields SP-MP whose factor functions are augmented by the information-gain weight. Experiments on two grid POMDPs, in which only a planner that learns the model finds the safe route, show that the method plans to efficiently learn $\theta_A$ and $\theta_B$. It reaches the goal on every episode, whereas SP-MP planners with the same inference update plateau or take the risky route.
Active inference casts perception, learning and planning as variational inference, where the Expected Free Energy (EFE) defines the planning objective. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors, and that the resulting entropy-corrected objective is minimized by sum-product message passing (SP-MP) on modified factor functions. These formulations treat model uncertainty as inference over a finite set of known models. We extend them to planning during learning, where beliefs over the observation and transition parameters $\theta_A$, $\theta_B$ are Dirichlet priors. Closed-form Dirichlet updates are usually obtained by a structured mean-field factorization between parameters and states, but under exactly that factorization the information-gain corrections vanish. We resolve this by giving every factor its own parameter prior, frozen during a rollout. Conjugacy then makes each factor belief a product of a marginal over the categorical variables and a one-step Bayes posterior of the parameters. This reintroduces the datum-dependent parameter posteriors that mean-field factorization destroys. We show that evaluating the epistemic priors under the resulting Bethe joint recovers the information gains. Stationarity of this single closed-form objective yields SP-MP whose factor functions are augmented by the information-gain weight. Experiments on two grid POMDPs, in which only a planner that learns the model finds the safe route, show that the method plans to efficiently learn $\theta_A$ and $\theta_B$. It reaches the goal on every episode, whereas SP-MP planners with the same inference update plateau or take the risky route.
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cs.AIcs.CR Jie Ying, Xutao Zhang, Ningyuan Chen et al. · Oct 22, 2026
When tool-use agents write files, execute code, or send data, their final responses do not explain the resulting security events, and heterogeneous runtimes expose the relevant evidence through incompatible interfaces. We present AgentTriage, an executable contract for replayable security diagnosis across heterogeneous runtimes. The contract admits conclusions whose claims cite canonical runtime events and requires abstention when mandatory evidence is missing. Runtime overlays normalize native observations, while a deterministic pipeline joins invocation and result lifecycles, constructs a typed provenance graph, selects a policy-decisive slice, and binds claims to recorded evidence. Given the same normalized trace, overlay version, and pre-run policy oracle, the diagnosis can be recomputed and its claims re-checked without language-model judgment. Across five runtimes, one contract captures all 159 applicable executions, with an audit of native and synthesized identifiers. On 120 adjudicated cases, AgentTriage achieves 0.858 grounded joint diagnosis, 0.966 required-evidence coverage, and a 0.036 unsupported-claim rate, improving joint diagnosis by 0.175 (95% CI [0.092, 0.258]) over the strongest same-schema baseline. These results quantify the precision of replayable diagnosis and the observation boundaries that require abstention. We release an open-source implementation and selected sanitized evidence at https://github.com/AsnGs/agenttriage-open-source.
When tool-use agents write files, execute code, or send data, their final responses do not explain the resulting security events, and heterogeneous runtimes expose the relevant evidence through incompatible interfaces. We present AgentTriage, an executable contract for replayable security diagnosis across heterogeneous runtimes. The contract admits conclusions whose claims cite canonical runtime events and requires abstention when mandatory evidence is missing. Runtime overlays normalize native observations, while a deterministic pipeline joins invocation and result lifecycles, constructs a typed provenance graph, selects a policy-decisive slice, and binds claims to recorded evidence. Given the same normalized trace, overlay version, and pre-run policy oracle, the diagnosis can be recomputed and its claims re-checked without language-model judgment. Across five runtimes, one contract captures all 159 applicable executions, with an audit of native and synthesized identifiers. On 120 adjudicated cases, AgentTriage achieves 0.858 grounded joint diagnosis, 0.966 required-evidence coverage, and a 0.036 unsupported-claim rate, improving joint diagnosis by 0.175 (95% CI [0.092, 0.258]) over the strongest same-schema baseline. These results quantify the precision of replayable diagnosis and the observation boundaries that require abstention. We release an open-source implementation and selected sanitized evidence at https://github.com/AsnGs/agenttriage-open-source.
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cs.CLcs.AI Andr\'es Daniel Godoy Ortiz · Oct 22, 2026
This paper studies the local geometry of semantic meaning in large language models. Current representation analyses ask whether meanings are close in embedding space, or whether linear probes separate semantic classes, but they do not characterize the within-concept local geometry: what is invariant across realizations of a single semantic factor, what varies, and what changes when meaning is refined. This paper characterizes that geometry through two controlled probes evaluated on four architecturally diverse decoder-only LLMs (Gemma 4, Llama 3.2, Qwen 2.5, Pythia). A cross-lingual probe uses language as a perturbation to separate exact meaning matches, same-factor realizations, nearby concepts, and out-of-domain contrasts. A refinement probe separates specificity-bearing semantic narrowing from high-probability attributive elaboration and adversarial controls; both probes are validated by blind human judgments. Four findings recur across all models: under mean pooling, once dominant variance directions are removed, sentence pairs order by semantic relatedness (same factor, then same domain, then different domain) without overlap over a band of layers; semantic factors organize around an invariant core surrounded by structured realization-specific variation; refinement produces directed displacement into tighter neighborhoods, including against controls built on the same base noun; and sentence-level and token-local readouts expose complementary geometry (volume contraction at the sentence level, sharper anisotropic endpoints at token-local readout). We interpret these results as evidence that LLM semantics are organized as local anisotropic neighborhoods in which meaning contracts under refinement.
This paper studies the local geometry of semantic meaning in large language models. Current representation analyses ask whether meanings are close in embedding space, or whether linear probes separate semantic classes, but they do not characterize the within-concept local geometry: what is invariant across realizations of a single semantic factor, what varies, and what changes when meaning is refined. This paper characterizes that geometry through two controlled probes evaluated on four architecturally diverse decoder-only LLMs (Gemma 4, Llama 3.2, Qwen 2.5, Pythia). A cross-lingual probe uses language as a perturbation to separate exact meaning matches, same-factor realizations, nearby concepts, and out-of-domain contrasts. A refinement probe separates specificity-bearing semantic narrowing from high-probability attributive elaboration and adversarial controls; both probes are validated by blind human judgments. Four findings recur across all models: under mean pooling, once dominant variance directions are removed, sentence pairs order by semantic relatedness (same factor, then same domain, then different domain) without overlap over a band of layers; semantic factors organize around an invariant core surrounded by structured realization-specific variation; refinement produces directed displacement into tighter neighborhoods, including against controls built on the same base noun; and sentence-level and token-local readouts expose complementary geometry (volume contraction at the sentence level, sharper anisotropic endpoints at token-local readout). We interpret these results as evidence that LLM semantics are organized as local anisotropic neighborhoods in which meaning contracts under refinement.
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cs.AIcs.SE Bowen Liu, Youting Wang, Bonan Shen et al. · Oct 22, 2026
An LLM agent can retrieve a memory correctly yet use it incorrectly after its validity state changes. We study governance-state corruption: faults that alter which retained records enter model-visible context while stored content and tasks remain fixed. Across six providers, 731 benchmark-grounded bases yield 2,080 matched fault pairs. In offline control-plane checks, corruption changes the operative projection in 96.25% of pairs, while oracle-backed enforcement restores it in 100%. For downstream evaluation, a deterministically selected, non-probability LongMemEval/Memora panel resolves 298 of 300 matched triplets (238 distinct bases). Clean-minus-corrupted contrasts are 40.54 percentage points in LongMemEval binary correctness (95% base-cluster interval [30.32, 50.71]) and 30.60 points in rescaled Memora FAMA ([23.31, 37.69]); both sources also show recovery. OAKS Novel native option parity holds for all 6,714 resolved outputs. Full-cohort frozen-scorer corruption/recovery effects (-27.55/+27.51 points) remain descriptive proxies, not validated native semantic population effects. These bounded findings motivate evaluating memory control-state integrity alongside retrieval accuracy.
An LLM agent can retrieve a memory correctly yet use it incorrectly after its validity state changes. We study governance-state corruption: faults that alter which retained records enter model-visible context while stored content and tasks remain fixed. Across six providers, 731 benchmark-grounded bases yield 2,080 matched fault pairs. In offline control-plane checks, corruption changes the operative projection in 96.25% of pairs, while oracle-backed enforcement restores it in 100%. For downstream evaluation, a deterministically selected, non-probability LongMemEval/Memora panel resolves 298 of 300 matched triplets (238 distinct bases). Clean-minus-corrupted contrasts are 40.54 percentage points in LongMemEval binary correctness (95% base-cluster interval [30.32, 50.71]) and 30.60 points in rescaled Memora FAMA ([23.31, 37.69]); both sources also show recovery. OAKS Novel native option parity holds for all 6,714 resolved outputs. Full-cohort frozen-scorer corruption/recovery effects (-27.55/+27.51 points) remain descriptive proxies, not validated native semantic population effects. These bounded findings motivate evaluating memory control-state integrity alongside retrieval accuracy.
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cs.CVcs.AI Zixu Wang, Huaquan Zhang, Shoukai Xu et al. · Oct 22, 2026
Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires agents to follow instructions and navigate to target locations. However, current VLN agents often suffer severe performance degradation in unseen environments due to distribution shifts. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) offers a promising paradigm to bridge this gap, yet existing methods that rely on unsupervised entropy minimization can propagate errors through the trajectory, causing cascading failures in navigation. Recent methods mitigate this by incorporating human feedback, but they apply trajectory-level supervision uniformly across all steps without localizing the actions is truly informative, leading to inefficient feedback utilization and mismatched optimization granularity. To address these limitations, we propose FETA, a Feedback-Efficient Test-Time Adaptation method that improves both feedback efficiency and optimization reliability. To reduce unnecessary human interventions, we introduce a hierarchical sample selection strategy to localize informative samples. Specifically, we first filter trajectories whose normalized policy entropy exhibits large fluctuations. Within each selected trajectory, we further select the critical action via an entropy-gradient saliency criterion and query a single binary feedback on its correctness. A discrepancy-aware entropy optimization objective then updates the policy only at the queried step, with adaptive scaling that assigns larger relative weights to samples with greater prediction-feedback discrepancy. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that FETA achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer human interventions, while remaining robust under noisy feedback and continual adaptation settings.
Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires agents to follow instructions and navigate to target locations. However, current VLN agents often suffer severe performance degradation in unseen environments due to distribution shifts. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) offers a promising paradigm to bridge this gap, yet existing methods that rely on unsupervised entropy minimization can propagate errors through the trajectory, causing cascading failures in navigation. Recent methods mitigate this by incorporating human feedback, but they apply trajectory-level supervision uniformly across all steps without localizing the actions is truly informative, leading to inefficient feedback utilization and mismatched optimization granularity. To address these limitations, we propose FETA, a Feedback-Efficient Test-Time Adaptation method that improves both feedback efficiency and optimization reliability. To reduce unnecessary human interventions, we introduce a hierarchical sample selection strategy to localize informative samples. Specifically, we first filter trajectories whose normalized policy entropy exhibits large fluctuations. Within each selected trajectory, we further select the critical action via an entropy-gradient saliency criterion and query a single binary feedback on its correctness. A discrepancy-aware entropy optimization objective then updates the policy only at the queried step, with adaptive scaling that assigns larger relative weights to samples with greater prediction-feedback discrepancy. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that FETA achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer human interventions, while remaining robust under noisy feedback and continual adaptation settings.
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cs.AI Juan-Pablo Rivera, Ari Spiesberger, Juan J Vazquez et al. · Oct 22, 2026
AI control protocols aim to get useful work from models that may be misaligned by monitoring their behaviour. One approach uses a second copy of the same model as the monitor. This avoids relying on a weaker reviewer the model could outsmart, but risks collusion: the model, now monitoring itself, may cover up its own misbehaviour. One remedy is to fine-tune the monitor on whatever examples of misbehaviour the control team has caught. We ask whether this training also removes collusion that the control team has not yet found. We fine-tune Llama-3.3-70B and Qwen2.5-72B to install five policy-monitor behaviour pairs, correct the monitor on 300 honest reviews of one caught collusion, and measure collusion on the other four in unseen prompt formats. Averaged over the three seeds of each family, correction reduces held-out collusion from 91% to 14-20% under three of the four methods we compare (individual seeds 10-32%), while a control fine-tuned on the same number of unrelated examples leaves 56-93%. Family-average accuracy on control items changes by at most five points and capability is preserved, apart from a drop in mathematical accuracy on one Llama seed. Under the tested training configuration, methods with similar caught-task accuracy differ in held-out transfer, from 58% to 83% average reduction, so the caught behaviour alone does not reveal how far a correction reaches. Catching one collusion lets the control team reduce, but not remove, collusion it has not caught, by retraining the monitor alone.
AI control protocols aim to get useful work from models that may be misaligned by monitoring their behaviour. One approach uses a second copy of the same model as the monitor. This avoids relying on a weaker reviewer the model could outsmart, but risks collusion: the model, now monitoring itself, may cover up its own misbehaviour. One remedy is to fine-tune the monitor on whatever examples of misbehaviour the control team has caught. We ask whether this training also removes collusion that the control team has not yet found. We fine-tune Llama-3.3-70B and Qwen2.5-72B to install five policy-monitor behaviour pairs, correct the monitor on 300 honest reviews of one caught collusion, and measure collusion on the other four in unseen prompt formats. Averaged over the three seeds of each family, correction reduces held-out collusion from 91% to 14-20% under three of the four methods we compare (individual seeds 10-32%), while a control fine-tuned on the same number of unrelated examples leaves 56-93%. Family-average accuracy on control items changes by at most five points and capability is preserved, apart from a drop in mathematical accuracy on one Llama seed. Under the tested training configuration, methods with similar caught-task accuracy differ in held-out transfer, from 58% to 83% average reduction, so the caught behaviour alone does not reveal how far a correction reaches. Catching one collusion lets the control team reduce, but not remove, collusion it has not caught, by retraining the monitor alone.
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cs.ROcs.AI Nagasrikanth Kallakuri · Oct 14, 2026
Human demonstrations are today used largely for pretraining vision-language-action models, with little ability to use the same data for target-embodiment or task-oriented training, which scalable deployment of robots in industrial and general environments depends on. A human demonstration recorded on a simple and scalable device such as a mobile phone can serve as post-training data for a robot whose body differs in structure and capability from the human who recorded it. This is made possible not by retargeting the hand's motion but the object's. A capture yields a body-free record: the object's pose over time, its contact intervals, and a reconstructed 3D object with provenance. Any robot, given as a URDF and a short descriptor, is solved against that record and scored in simulation against the demonstrated object motion as ground truth: the human-to-simulation leg of human-to-simulation-to-robot transfer, measured per robot. Each (robot, episode) pair gets one outcome: pass, failure with a named mode, or refusal, with its reason, before any motion. The method runs as a working system over a growing collection; the set analysed here is a sample of it: 42 captures solved on 8 robots, 157 pairs, of which 31.2% pass, 52.2% fail, 14.0% are refused and 2.5% are unauditable (kinematic feasibility, +/-50 mm / +/-15 deg, in simulation). Refusals held up: every pair the checks refuse on stored evidence yet ran anyway failed (13 of 13; 5 on a body whose public model welds its hand). A description file could not be shown to screen a robot: its outcomes were barely more predictable than guessing. No policy has yet been trained on the record. The record decides what a robot may post-train on; whether the policy then works on the real robot is the simulation-to-robot question, answered downstream.
Human demonstrations are today used largely for pretraining vision-language-action models, with little ability to use the same data for target-embodiment or task-oriented training, which scalable deployment of robots in industrial and general environments depends on. A human demonstration recorded on a simple and scalable device such as a mobile phone can serve as post-training data for a robot whose body differs in structure and capability from the human who recorded it. This is made possible not by retargeting the hand's motion but the object's. A capture yields a body-free record: the object's pose over time, its contact intervals, and a reconstructed 3D object with provenance. Any robot, given as a URDF and a short descriptor, is solved against that record and scored in simulation against the demonstrated object motion as ground truth: the human-to-simulation leg of human-to-simulation-to-robot transfer, measured per robot. Each (robot, episode) pair gets one outcome: pass, failure with a named mode, or refusal, with its reason, before any motion. The method runs as a working system over a growing collection; the set analysed here is a sample of it: 42 captures solved on 8 robots, 157 pairs, of which 31.2% pass, 52.2% fail, 14.0% are refused and 2.5% are unauditable (kinematic feasibility, +/-50 mm / +/-15 deg, in simulation). Refusals held up: every pair the checks refuse on stored evidence yet ran anyway failed (13 of 13; 5 on a body whose public model welds its hand). A description file could not be shown to screen a robot: its outcomes were barely more predictable than guessing. No policy has yet been trained on the record. The record decides what a robot may post-train on; whether the policy then works on the real robot is the simulation-to-robot question, answered downstream.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.CV Jintian Zhang, Feng He, Xinnian Liang et al. · Oct 14, 2026
Context can improve large language model performance, but these gains may be lost after context removal. Inspired by biological systems consolidation, we formulate Memory Consolidation (MC) as internalizing these gains while preserving non-target capabilities, connecting context-specified editing, skill learning, and behavioral steering under a common objective. We introduce a five-task-family testbed measuring consolidation and retention under single, batch, and sequential updates. We propose Cortex, which generates prospective queries to anticipate uses of context and distills context-conditioned outputs into mergeable low-rank or structural feed-forward network updates. Across 4B--120B dense and mixture-of-experts backbones, including both text-only and multimodal models, Cortex lies on the empirical consolidation--retention Pareto frontier in most evaluated settings. After 50 sequential factual edits on a 14B model, Cortex-Structural recovers 88.9% of the context-induced gain while retaining 99.8% of original non-target performance.
Context can improve large language model performance, but these gains may be lost after context removal. Inspired by biological systems consolidation, we formulate Memory Consolidation (MC) as internalizing these gains while preserving non-target capabilities, connecting context-specified editing, skill learning, and behavioral steering under a common objective. We introduce a five-task-family testbed measuring consolidation and retention under single, batch, and sequential updates. We propose Cortex, which generates prospective queries to anticipate uses of context and distills context-conditioned outputs into mergeable low-rank or structural feed-forward network updates. Across 4B--120B dense and mixture-of-experts backbones, including both text-only and multimodal models, Cortex lies on the empirical consolidation--retention Pareto frontier in most evaluated settings. After 50 sequential factual edits on a 14B model, Cortex-Structural recovers 88.9% of the context-induced gain while retaining 99.8% of original non-target performance.
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cs.GTcs.AIcs.LG Shubhendu Trivedi, Jacob Eisenstein, Alekh Agarwal et al. · Oct 14, 2026
An agentic market is a decentralized serving-time market where AI agents bid to claim each user prompt. An agent's bid is based on its expected value for the prompt, which is the expectation of the reward for its response minus its inference costs. First-price auctions (FPAs), in which the highest bidder pays its bid and receives the prompt, are a natural way to allocate prompts in such a market, since they are simple and transparent to run, and do not require central knowledge of private capabilities and costs. However, FPAs are not truthful: participants may bid less than their true value in the hope of a larger profit, and the prompt may then be allocated to someone other than the bidder who values it the most. This welfare loss is quantified by the $\textit{price-of-anarchy}$ (PoA). In this paper, we argue that agentic markets are likely to possess features that reduce the price-of-anarchy. The first is a $\textit{competitive floor}$, which occurs when multiple bidders usually value the prompt above some baseline share of the optimal welfare (e.g., because the best models are often distilled into cheaper alternatives, which perform similarly). We show that competition among them then limits the welfare loss, which can be driven to zero as the floor rises. The second feature is $\textit{near-independence}$ of values after conditioning on the prompt, which occurs when most of the predictable variation in the expected value is determined by the difficulty of the prompt. As the value distribution approaches conditional independence, we can derive an efficiency guarantee that approaches a factor of $1 - 1/e^2$ of the optimal welfare. Thus, both features give rise to welfare lower bounds that are significantly better than the well-known general case of $1 - 1/e$. We validate these results empirically using auctions with strategic bidders simulated on the EmbedLLM prompt routing dataset.
An agentic market is a decentralized serving-time market where AI agents bid to claim each user prompt. An agent's bid is based on its expected value for the prompt, which is the expectation of the reward for its response minus its inference costs. First-price auctions (FPAs), in which the highest bidder pays its bid and receives the prompt, are a natural way to allocate prompts in such a market, since they are simple and transparent to run, and do not require central knowledge of private capabilities and costs. However, FPAs are not truthful: participants may bid less than their true value in the hope of a larger profit, and the prompt may then be allocated to someone other than the bidder who values it the most. This welfare loss is quantified by the $\textit{price-of-anarchy}$ (PoA). In this paper, we argue that agentic markets are likely to possess features that reduce the price-of-anarchy. The first is a $\textit{competitive floor}$, which occurs when multiple bidders usually value the prompt above some baseline share of the optimal welfare (e.g., because the best models are often distilled into cheaper alternatives, which perform similarly). We show that competition among them then limits the welfare loss, which can be driven to zero as the floor rises. The second feature is $\textit{near-independence}$ of values after conditioning on the prompt, which occurs when most of the predictable variation in the expected value is determined by the difficulty of the prompt. As the value distribution approaches conditional independence, we can derive an efficiency guarantee that approaches a factor of $1 - 1/e^2$ of the optimal welfare. Thus, both features give rise to welfare lower bounds that are significantly better than the well-known general case of $1 - 1/e$. We validate these results empirically using auctions with strategic bidders simulated on the EmbedLLM prompt routing dataset.
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cs.AIcs.GTcs.LG Miaobo Hu, Shuhao Hu, Xiaobo Guo et al. · Oct 14, 2026
Opponent histories can mislead after behavioral shifts. SafeAdapt-Poker formulates budgeted adaptation under opponent shift as a dual-counterfactual sequential-control problem using only information available before each decision. At each decision the controller asks two distinct questions: what local downside a deviation from the frozen anchor would induce under matched legal continuations, and what future adaptation value would be lost by consuming part of the remaining deviation budget now. The first question is answered by a monotone strategic-risk model over deviation intensity; the second by a paired budget-state continuation model that prices current budget consumption. The controller selects among support-preserving candidate deviations by trading immediate adaptation value against these two quantities, a pathwise cumulative-KL ledger bounds total anchor-relative deviation, and a finite family of frozen controllers is screened on complete paired calibration sessions before held-out interaction. A finite-candidate perturbation bound shows that the allocation objective degrades continuously with continuation-value estimation error. Evaluation covers exact-game exploitation and safety, four opponent shifts, local-risk calibration, delayed-opportunity allocation, direct opportunity-value estimation, value-error robustness, factorial mechanism attribution, budget sensitivity, abstract-HUNL cross-play, and player/time-held-out public-history behavior. On exact Leduc the full controller attains a matched weak-pool gain of +0.0718 with a worst-opponent delta of -0.0126, raises delayed-opportunity capture from 0.6318 under myopic allocation to 0.7841 under the same session budget, and reaches +42.7 mbb/hand in abstract-HUNL cross-play; the retained public-history screen reports 0.5820 action accuracy and 0.9277 log loss versus 0.5039 and 0.9778 for a public prior.
Opponent histories can mislead after behavioral shifts. SafeAdapt-Poker formulates budgeted adaptation under opponent shift as a dual-counterfactual sequential-control problem using only information available before each decision. At each decision the controller asks two distinct questions: what local downside a deviation from the frozen anchor would induce under matched legal continuations, and what future adaptation value would be lost by consuming part of the remaining deviation budget now. The first question is answered by a monotone strategic-risk model over deviation intensity; the second by a paired budget-state continuation model that prices current budget consumption. The controller selects among support-preserving candidate deviations by trading immediate adaptation value against these two quantities, a pathwise cumulative-KL ledger bounds total anchor-relative deviation, and a finite family of frozen controllers is screened on complete paired calibration sessions before held-out interaction. A finite-candidate perturbation bound shows that the allocation objective degrades continuously with continuation-value estimation error. Evaluation covers exact-game exploitation and safety, four opponent shifts, local-risk calibration, delayed-opportunity allocation, direct opportunity-value estimation, value-error robustness, factorial mechanism attribution, budget sensitivity, abstract-HUNL cross-play, and player/time-held-out public-history behavior. On exact Leduc the full controller attains a matched weak-pool gain of +0.0718 with a worst-opponent delta of -0.0126, raises delayed-opportunity capture from 0.6318 under myopic allocation to 0.7841 under the same session budget, and reaches +42.7 mbb/hand in abstract-HUNL cross-play; the retained public-history screen reports 0.5820 action accuracy and 0.9277 log loss versus 0.5039 and 0.9778 for a public prior.