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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Darpan Aswal, C\'eline Hudelot · Oct 1, 2026

Diffusion language models generate text through iterative denoising rather than left-to-right prediction, making attribution a spatiotemporal problem: support for any output token is distributed across both network depth and timesteps. This paper introduces Diffusion Layer Integrated Gradients (DLIG), which extends Integrated Gradients to score a DLM's commitment to its completion at any chosen layer and denoising step, decomposing it into per-token contributions. It matters because existing token-attribution tools ignore the denoising trajectory entirely, while interventional alternatives are computationally expensive.

This work presents Diffusion Layer Integrated Gradients (DLIG), a token attribution method for diffusion language models (DLMs) that extends Integrated Gradients (IG~\cite{sundararajan2017axiomatic}) to arbitrary layers and denoising steps. DLIG attributes a DLM's progressive commitment to a self-generated or fixed completion for an input prompt. We establish direct correspondences between DLIG and the IG axioms of completeness, implementation invariance, linearity, and symmetry preservation. As a lightweight complement to interventional analysis, DLIG provides an inexpensive first check of mechanistic hypotheses across the denoising trajectory. We demonstrate this on word-sense disambiguation, multi-hop graph reasoning, and sentence infilling, revealing how DLMs draw on inputs across positions, layers, and denoising steps.
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cs.LGcs.AImath.ST Hanna Malet, Gabriel Turinici · Oct 1, 2026

This paper studies model collapse in diffusion models under a fixed-budget data regime, where synthetic data accumulates but each generation trains on a constant-size subsample from the growing pool. Unlike prior work on total replacement (rapid collapse) or unbounded accumulation (collapse avoided), the authors argue that fixed budgets yield partial, feature-selective collapse: "fragile" features with large eigenvalues in a linearized parameter dynamics model decay quickly, while "robust" features with small eigenvalues persist for exponentially many generations. They support this with theory (stochastic recursion giving per-feature halving times) and experiments on 2D spirals, MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10.

Model collapse arises when generative models are trained on synthetic data produced by earlier models. The phenomenon has attracted considerable attention because of its societal and technical implications. However, previous studies have reached seemingly contradictory conclusions: replacing real data with synthetic data causes collapse (Shumailov et al.), yet accumulating real data alongside synthetic data can prevent it. For diffusion models, we study an intermediate regime typical of finite-budget pipelines: all past datasets and the real data are kept, but each new model is trained on a fixed-size sample from this growing pool, so the real fraction vanishes without any data being removed. Experiments on a 2D spiral dataset as well as the image benchmarks (MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10) show that replacement protocol degrades dataset rapidly as in the literature, whereas the fixed budget degrades only partially, sparing some features. A linear-response model of the multi-generational parameter dynamics, analyzed by stochastic recursion, confirms that the two protocols differ: some features will be fragile and lost within a few generations for both protocols, while some will be robust and preserved over practically unbounded horizons under the fixed budget protocol.
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cs.LGcs.AI Mehmet Baygin, Sengul Dogan, Turker Tuncer · Oct 1, 2026

This tutorial reframes model validation as the design of a performance estimator rather than a mere software setting. It surveys splits from hold-out to nested group cross-validation, links geometric fold choices to the correct independent unit (record, subject, center), and provides eight controlled leakage scenarios grounded in biomedical examples such as EEG epochs and paired-eye OCT. The core argument is that an elaborate fold structure is scientifically invalid if applied to the wrong unit, and that even a simple hold-out can be rigorous when the unit, size, and isolation constraints are correct.

Model validation estimates the performance of a complete learning procedure on new data. However, an invalid split can produce an optimistic and stable result. This tutorial reviews hold-out validation, train/validation/test designs, repeated random subsampling, k-fold and repeated stratified cross-validation, leave-one-out and leave-p-out schemes, group-aware validation, and nested group cross-validation. General machine-learning principles are linked to EEG epochs, paired-eye OCT images, repeated clinical measurements, and multicenter data. Eight controlled scenarios compare flawed and leakage-safe designs: seven use locked confusion matrices with auditable metrics, and one uses a reproducible repeated-study simulation. The scenarios cover global feature selection, normalization leakage, dependent records, center mixing, repeated test-set use, and estimator instability. Bias, variance, metric aggregation, uncertainty, and computational cost are also examined. A data-size matrix, a decision tree, and reporting checklists are provided. Reproducible MATLAB templates and scikit-learn counterparts are included. The results show that no validation method is universally best. The independent unit must match the intended deployment target. Every data-dependent operation must also exclude the observations used for performance estimation.
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cs.LGcs.AImath.ST Yunrui Guan, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan · Oct 1, 2026

Counterfactual generation aims to sample the distribution of outcomes that would occur if a treatment were applied to an entire population, but observational data suffer from selection bias because treated individuals differ systematically from the target population. This paper develops a flow-matching method that learns to transport observed outcomes to counterfactual targets using a learned source-target coupling, a doubly robust training objective, and a score-corrected stochastic sampler with Gaussian smoothing. The core theoretical result is a finite-step KL bound governed by the coupling displacement moment $D_5$ rather than worst-case regularity, yielding near-linear dimension scaling and an end-to-end nonparametric sample-complexity guarantee; experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image data support the predicted coupling dependence and show that stochastic sampling can outperform deterministic counterparts at limited discretization budgets.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.
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cs.LGcs.AIcs.DB Roberto Stanzione, Jules Barbe, Magali Parrino et al. · Oct 1, 2026

Time series anomaly detection benchmarks traditionally optimize for detection accuracy while neglecting explainability and interpretability. This paper introduces SHAD, a real-world benchmark comprising 215 high-dimensional multivariate time series collected from distributed cloud storage systems, complete with per-dimension labels and rich semantic annotations. The authors evaluate 18 detection algorithms, probe spatial attribution for explainability, and test frozen LLMs for interpretability, demonstrating that accurate detection does not guarantee diagnostic utility and that zero-shot semantic interpretation remains largely unresolved.

Time Series Anomaly Detection has received increasing attention, driven by the growing availability of complex time series data. This surge has led to the development of numerous detection methods, as well as a variety of benchmarks aimed at thoroughly evaluating their performance. However, most existing detectors remain largely agnostic to domain context, overlooking explainability and interpretability. One of the main reasons for this gap is that current benchmarks primarily focus on detection accuracy, and only few of them evaluate spatial explainability. Moreover, no benchmark currently provides sufficiently rich semantic annotations to support the generation of human-understandable interpretations of anomalies. To address these limitations, we introduce SHAD (Scality High-dimensional Anomaly Detection benchmark), a fully annotated benchmark composed of 215 multivariate, high-dimensional time series collected from real-world distributed cloud storage systems operated by Scality. The proposed dataset includes rich contextual information, covering three families of anomalies with varying degrees of severity. As further contribution, we provide a foundation for future work by evaluating baseline methods for Detection, Explainability, and Interpretability, covering all stages of a TSAD pipeline. For Detection, we benchmark a wide range of existing anomaly detectors, testing their effectiveness on the proposed real-world dataset. Then, we consider explainability by evaluating whether measuring the contribution of each dimension in the generated anomaly score can provide accurate anomaly attributions. Finally, for interpretability, we investigate the effectiveness of frozen LLM baselines in localizing and interpreting anomalies.
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cs.LGcs.AI Di He, Pengxiang Li, Da Chang et al. · Oct 1, 2026

Looped Transformers reuse shared blocks to scale depth without adding parameters, but MoE variants degrade beyond two loops. This paper diagnoses two bottlenecks—hidden-state drift and expert selection collapse—and proposes LOOM, combining residual scaling, embedding re-injection, per-loop routers, and a Looping Residual. It matters because it attempts to establish recurrent depth as a genuine, compute-efficient scaling axis for sparse LLMs.

Looped Transformers introduce recurrent depth as a new scaling axis for LLMs: by repeatedly applying shared Transformer blocks, they increase effective depth without increasing parameter count. However, the benefits of looping remain unclear for large MoE LLMs under FLOPs-matched comparisons. The main reason is that the gains from additional iterations diminish quickly and can even turn into degradation, so the extra FLOPs spent on looping yield little substantial improvement. Consequently, prior work typically settles on two loops. We identify two main obstacles to scaling looped MoE. First, looping inherits and amplifies the curse of depth: hidden-state variance grows with each iteration as residual updates accumulate, which destabilizes deep recurrence and causes representations to drift. Second, looped MoE suffers from expert selection collapse: routers repeatedly select the same experts across loops, so extra iterations add computation without adding computational diversity. Guided by this diagnosis, we propose LOOM, built on a single principle: each loop should contribute new computation while keeping the recurrent state stable. LOOM stabilizes recurrence by scaling residual updates to bound variance growth and re-injecting the input embedding at every loop, and diversifies it through per-loop routers that engage different experts and a Looping Residual that carries earlier outputs forward. Experiments across 100M-1.7B models show stable scaling to 9-12 loops. Under near-iso-FLOP, the 700M model performs best at 5 loops, reducing perplexity from 18.36 to 16.54 and improving average zero-shot accuracy from 38.84% to 39.53% over the non-looped baseline. Without FLOP matching, the 1.7B model trained on 60B tokens peaks at 9 loops, reducing perplexity from 9.62 to 7.77 and improving average zero-shot accuracy from 42.4% to 47.7%. Code is available https://github.com/hed-ucas/LOOM.
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cs.CRcs.AI Boyang Li, Bingyu Shen, Weihao Hong et al. · Oct 1, 2026

Quantized LLMs are increasingly deployed on edge devices for efficiency, but aggressive quantization collapses safety alignment and leaves small models highly vulnerable to jailbreaks. MOMAT proposes a hardware-aware defense that splits safety knowledge into semantic atlases and performs fast similarity search via a Compute-in-Memory (CiM) engine, paired with a lightweight Mixture-of-Experts detector. By co-designing structured retrieval with low-power acceleration, the work argues that strong guardrails can be restored on resource-constrained hardware without sacrificing benign utility.

Quantized large language models are increasingly deployed on edge devices for their low latency and energy efficiency. However, model quantization weakens alignment safeguards, leaving qLLMs (quantized large language models) highly vulnerable to jailbreak attacks. To address this challenge, we present MOMAT (Mixture of Multiple Atlases), a hardware-enhanced safety framework that combines structured knowledge retrieval with low-power defense acceleration. Each atlas represents a semantic cluster of harmful or benign sample sets and policy templates, enabling domain-localized Retrieval-Augmented Generation guarding that mitigates the curse of dimensionality and the resulting semantic sparsity problem in large, heterogeneous safety databases. MOMAT retrieves top-$k$ similarity features from all atlases for each prompt and evaluates them using a lightweight MoE (Mixture of Experts) detector, while a CiM (Compute-in-Memory)-accelerated similarity engine performs fast, low-power atlas-local retrieval. MOMAT's CiM-based retrieval accelerates a 100-query batch from 15,052.44 ms to 3,207.21 ns (a $4.69 \times 10^6\times$ speedup) and reduces energy from $8.1 \times 10^7$ $\mu$J to 3.32 $\mu$J, yielding an approximately $2.5 \times 10^5\times$ energy reduction over DRAM-based (Raspberry Pi) baselines. Red-team evaluations across standard benchmarks show that MOMAT matches the defense performance of state-of-the-art methods while avoiding benign overkill and providing substantial efficiency gains, demonstrating that CiM-based modular defenses can make edge-deployed qLLMs both safer and more energy-efficient. We will release the full 223.2k-sample dataset to foster future research.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG Guangzhi Xiong, Zhenghao He, Bohan Liu et al. · Oct 1, 2026

In-context learning (ICL) lets LLMs adapt to new tasks from demonstrations, but reprocessing all examples for every query is costly and prior compression methods fail on complex, input-dependent tasks. This paper introduces Task Operator (TO), a training-free method that extracts per-head affine transformations — scaling weights and bias vectors — from the ICL forward pass and replays them during zero-shot inference by updating attention output projections. By treating the ICL effect as a dynamic, state-dependent modification rather than a fixed activation vector, TO substantially narrows the gap between zero-shot and few-shot performance while revealing sparse, task-specific circuits.

In-context learning (ICL) enables language models to perform new tasks from demonstrations without weight updates. However, every ICL inference requires processing the full set of examples, resulting in inefficient deployments, and how ICL works mechanistically is not fully understood. Prior work compresses ICL into fixed activation vectors extracted from specific layers or positions, but these input-independent interventions fail on complex tasks where the output depends on fine-grained interactions with the input. By analyzing the ICL forward pass, we show that each attention head's output is an affine transformation of its context-masked counterpart, and that the parameters of this transformation are empirically stable across samples for a given task. Building on this, we introduce Task Operator (TO), which replays this transformation as an analytically derived update to the attention output projection. Across lexical, algorithmic, and reasoning tasks, TO achieves the best overall performance among prior methods and substantially narrows the gap between zero-shot inference and ICL. We further show that the extracted knowledge concentrates in a task-specific sparse circuit across layers and positions, and that averaging operators from disjoint demonstration batches enables effective many-shot scaling without expanding the context window. Our code is available at https://github.com/gzxiong/task_operator.
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cs.AI Rishab Alagharu, Hongji Pu, Zeeshan Memon et al. · Oct 1, 2026

The paper tackles the bottleneck of expensive Monte Carlo simulation when designing algorithms for complex network dynamics, such as influence maximization and epidemic control. It proposes a learned, action-conditioned Network World Model that predicts how network interventions unfold over time, and wraps it in an LLM-based coding agent that searches over executable algorithms. The framework reportedly outperforms strong baselines across eight tasks and five diffusion models while rolling out up to 14.5 times faster than direct simulation.

World models, which simulate an environment and predict how it changes under actions, are increasingly used in real-world applications such as robotics. Complex systems call for the same tool because the effect of an action is not immediate. Seeding nodes for a campaign, or immunizing nodes against an epidemic, changes little on its own; what matters is the outcome that unfolds over the steps that follow. Designing an algorithm that selects such actions to maximize expected performance on a task is inherently iterative, and every candidate must be scored by the outcome it produces. Obtaining that outcome has relied on simulation, whose cost becomes a bottleneck when candidates are evaluated over many sampled trajectories. We propose an action-conditioned Network World Model that learns a network's diffusion dynamics under interventions over time, applies each action to the network, and predicts the outcome that follows. It serves as a fast evaluator inside an algorithm design loop in which a coding agent designs and refines executable algorithms using feedback from full rollouts, action-level credit, and counterfactual probes over alternative interventions. Across eight network tasks and five diffusion models, the designed algorithms match or exceed the strongest reported baseline in 138 of 141 settings while enabling up to 14.5 times faster rollouts than Monte Carlo simulation. Code will be released upon acceptance.
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cs.AIcs.CL Jiaqi Tang, Lan Wei, Bingyu Shen et al. · Oct 1, 2026

This paper identifies empty commitments: promises that LLM agents make about future actions their runtime cannot actually execute. Unlike broken promises, these are structurally impossible from the moment of speaking because the agent lacks the required tools, scheduling, memory, or delegation affordances. The authors define a formal taxonomy of failure types and propose a measurement protocol, though no empirical results are presented.

A chatbot that says "I will remind you tomorrow" will not run again until the user writes. We call such a promise an empty commitment: a promise of an action after the current turn that nothing in the agent's tools or runtime can carry out. Unlike a broken promise, its emptiness follows from the agent's configuration alone; no later trajectory is needed. We define empty commitments on top of commitment semantics, with three failure types, an anchoring condition for promises that a tool could make real, and a response-level outcome taxonomy. We then describe a measurement protocol: follow-up requests run in five setups that add one persistence affordance at a time, with the environment either left implicit or stated.
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cs.AIcs.CL Shixuan Li, Wei Yang, Peiyu Zhang et al. · Oct 1, 2026

Multi-agent LLM systems are usually judged by end-task accuracy, which conflates genuine information sharing with extra reasoning or fortunate architecture. This paper introduces Independent–Communicate–Revise (ICR), a controlled audit that freezes each agent’s initial trajectory and measures answer revision conditional on both agents’ initial correctness. By separating correction from preservation and comparing against a no-message control, the work shows that aggregate accuracy can hide large, policy-dependent trade-offs between fixing errors and corrupting correct answers.

Multi-agent communication aims to help agents benefit from one another's information. Yet improvements in system performance leave a fundamental ambiguity: do they reflect effective communication, a favorable agent architecture, or simply additional reasoning? Because communication methods are commonly evaluated within the systems they were designed for, these factors are difficult to disentangle. Final accuracy further merges corrected errors and corrupted answers into a single outcome, obscuring how communication changes decisions. We introduce Independent--Communicate--Revise (ICR), a controlled framework that evaluates communication as answer revision following independent reasoning. ICR fixes initial reasoning trajectories, measures correction and preservation conditional on both agents' initial correctness, and uses a no-message revision control to quantify gains beyond additional reasoning. Across four reasoning benchmarks, our audit of textual and latent communication reveals that similar aggregate accuracy can conceal substantially different revision behaviors. Compared with transmitting answers alone, full reasoning increases correction while reducing preservation on all four benchmarks, so richer messages amplify beneficial and harmful influence alike. Receiver-policy comparisons on MedQA and GPQA-D further show that a structured verification policy shifts every channel toward greater preservation and lower correction, while its effect on selectivity varies across channels and tasks. These findings challenge treating communication quality as an intrinsic property of a channel. ICR therefore recenters evaluation on selective revision, providing a unified framework for examining how message content and receiver policies jointly produce benefits and harms.
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cs.AI Shaoang Li, Jian Li · Oct 1, 2026

Voting over multiple LLM responses is a standard test-time scaling primitive, but discovering a correct answer does not guarantee it wins the final plurality under a fixed call budget. This paper formalizes the discovery-to-decision gap through the realized vote state and remaining budget, deriving sharp reachability thresholds, exact finite-horizon endpoint probabilities, a gold-free exact locking certificate, and demonstrating that representation diversity can dramatically improve plurality accuracy without changing single-call correctness.

Voting over multiple LLM responses is a common primitive in test-time scaling and ensemble inference. Collecting more responses can expand the candidate pool and increase the chance that a correct answer is discovered. Under a fixed call budget, a discovered answer still needs to accumulate enough support within the remaining calls to become the final plurality winner, creating a discovery-to-decision gap. In this work, we characterize this gap through the realized vote state and remaining call budget. We derive a sharp recoverability threshold and show that, as sampling proceeds, the observed candidate set can only expand while the set of reachable endpoint winners can only contract, inducing a candidate-level conversion window. Under a specified iid response law, the same state yields exact finite-horizon endpoint probabilities. We further show that merging wrong-answer identities preserves single-call correctness and cannot improve plurality accuracy, and that the effect of redistributing wrong-answer probability depends on the realized vote state. Singleton reachability yields a gold-free exact locking certificate. For a known answer universe, its first trigger is the earliest prefix at which all admissible continuations yield the same fixed-budget output. Empirically, most discovered-but-unselected correct answers lose reachability only after discovery. In a controlled Word16 study, input permutation improves raw-plurality accuracy by 21.1 points with essentially unchanged single-call correctness. Exact locking saves 28-30% of calls at a 16-call budget while preserving every fixed-budget output.
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cs.AIcs.CEcs.LG Aditya Dubey, Namah Gupta, Vinti Agarwal · Oct 1, 2026

This paper tackles the problem that LLM-generated economic policy can sound plausible yet be dynamically inconsistent. It grounds an instruction-tuned language model inside six DSGE simulators via a common RL interface, using PPO and GRPO to learn multi-turn policy actions with delayed rewards. The core idea is to replace linguistic plausibility with simulated economic consequences, testing credit assignment, semantic-shift conditioning, and cross-simulator transfer. Results matter for any setting where language agents must make sequential decisions with long-horizon structural feedback.

Large language models can produce economic policy responses that sound reasonable, but this does not show that their actions are consistent with economic dynamics. We test this by placing an instruction-tuned language model inside six Snowdrop-backed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) simulators. At each turn, the model observes the economy and a change in economic discourse, selects a bounded policy action, and receives the next simulated state and an economic reward. We implement a common Python interface for repeated rollouts, persistent shocks, state cloning, and rolling-horizon simulation. This setting creates a long-horizon credit-assignment problem. Policy effects may appear several quarters after an action is taken. PPO has a learned value function that can propagate delayed reward to earlier tokens through generalized advantage estimation. GRPO has no learned value function and instead assigns a group-relative advantage from complete rollout returns. It therefore cannot distinguish which earlier turn caused the outcome; if every rollout receives the same return, the normalized advantage is zero. We use PPO as the primary method and GRPO as a matched critic-free baseline. The experiments also test directional semantic signals, reward horizon, trajectory warm starts, cross-simulator transfer, and historically anchored pandemic and monetary-policy shocks. The objective is to judge policy actions by their simulated economic consequences rather than by plausible language alone.
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cs.AIeess.SP Jiazhen Hong, Xiaotian Zhou, Zihao Ding et al. · Oct 1, 2026

EEG foundation models are typically pretrained on fixed channel layouts, so they struggle when electrode montages differ at test time. This paper proposes CortexBridge, a lightweight adapter that routes arbitrary scalp montages into a fixed cortical atlas space using electrode coordinates and sparse attention. By injecting this anatomically grounded representation into frozen backbones, the authors show consistent accuracy gains across three models, five datasets, and three BCI paradigms.

Electroencephalography (EEG) foundation models are often pretrained with a fixed channel vocabulary or a limited set of montages, making transfer difficult when electrode layouts change. We propose CortexBridge, a lightweight adapter that combines EEG features with electrode and atlas coordinates to map arbitrary montages into a shared cortical latent space. Evaluated with three frozen foundation models on five brain-computer interface (BCI) datasets from the Mother of All BCI Benchmarks (MOABB), CortexBridge improves performance in 13 of 15 evaluations. The gains in balanced accuracy average 0.80% for EEGPT, 0.70% for LaBraM, and 3.26% for CBraMod, with a maximum gain of 13.02% on 12-class steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP) classification. Visualizations of the learned atlas representations reveal task-dependent spatial patterns, with SSVEP showing a more concentrated representation in the Yeo Visual network than auditory P300. These results establish cortical alignment as a learnable and anatomically grounded routing mechanism from heterogeneous EEG montages to pretrained foundation models.
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cs.AI Zhicheng Feng, Yubo Zhao, Xuefeng Yao · Oct 1, 2026

Inverse design of microwave absorbers traditionally demands rare cross-disciplinary expertise and lengthy simulation cycles. AbsorbEvo tackles this with an autonomous agentic framework that translates natural-language performance goals into candidate designs, screens them with a low-cost physics prior, and verifies select candidates with full-wave simulations. The core idea is to marry large language model reasoning with electromagnetic physics feedback so that expensive simulations are spent only on promising candidates. If robustly validated, such a pipeline could lower barriers to designing broadband, angle-tolerant absorbers.

Designing high-performance microwave absorbers requires specialized expertise in electromagnetic theory, materials science and simulation programming, and entails time-consuming optimization. Here, we present AbsorbEvo, an agentic framework for autonomous inverse design that translates natural-language performance objectives into designs verified by full-wave simulations. Its candidate evolution strategy integrates language reasoning, physics-based prediction and historical feedback. A large language model proposes the directions and magnitudes of parameter adjustments based on task objectives and computational history. The system combines directed increments with global sampling to generate candidates and uses a low-cost predictive model as a physics prior to rank them. Only high-ranking designs undergo full-wave simulation. Results passing physical validity checks are used to evaluate performance and guide subsequent search. Experience from training tasks is further distilled into textual skills, which are independently validated before use in new tasks. Under identical proposal budgets on held-out AbsorbBench-36 tasks, AbsorbEvo achieved a task success rate of 79.17%, versus 25.00% for a generic agent and 12.50% for random search. Its mean best coverage was 0.7816, compared with 0.6434 and 0.6448, respectively. By integrating language reasoning and physics-based feedback into design decisions, AbsorbEvo provides a methodological foundation for natural-language-driven autonomous inverse design of microwave absorbers.
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cs.AIcs.LG Sharath M Shankaranarayana, Davor Runje, Jan Jannink · Oct 1, 2026

Decision models like Jev return probability distributions to drive routing, abstention, and human review, yet average calibration cannot distinguish whether uncertainty stems from chance or from missing knowledge. The authors audit this distinction in a black-box decision model through roughly 575,000 API calls across paired interventions that vary supplied information while holding items fixed, plus targeted follow-up questions about the case and the model’s own familiarity. Their core finding is that confidence tracks correctness on familiar material but fails at knowledge boundaries—assigning up to $p_{\max}=0.80$ to salient options with no basis and growing overconfident past an observed temporal boundary—while apparent self-knowledge largely evaporates once surface cues are controlled. The work matters because it provides a practical, behavioral checklist for black-box knowledge audits and shows that querying case properties directly can be more reliable than reading a single output distribution.

Decision models return probabilities intended for routing, abstention and automated action. Calibration makes those probabilities useful on average, but does not establish whether low confidence reflects chance or missing knowledge, nor whether confidence falls when a model moves beyond what it knows. We audit this distinction in Jev, a decision model, with over 15 public datasets and 6 generated task families, with paired interventions that vary the information supplied for a fixed item. Jev's confidence is calibrated on familiar closed-choice tasks but fails as an indicator of missing knowledge: with no answer-relevant information it assigns up to 0.80 to a salient option, and on news beyond an observed knowledge boundary it exceeds accuracy by 0.21--0.33, a gap that recalibration on earlier months does not close. Targeted yes/no questions give sharper readouts of the case: whether an outcome is settled (AUROC 1.00) and whether the evidence suffices (0.95, against 0.85 for confidence on the same items). Asking whether Jev knows the answer appears to flag fabricated entities and post-boundary news (0.91), but with realistic names or with dates removed it shows no advantage over answer uncertainty. Black-box knowledge audits therefore need explicit controls for surface cues. Code: https://github.com/Syntheme/beyond-answer-confidence.
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cs.CLcs.AIcs.IR Zhiyun Shi · Oct 1, 2026

A long-term assistant must recall memories whose cues are associatively related to, yet not semantically similar to, the current user turn. Madeleine reframes this involuntary recall as a learnable relevance—the pointwise mutual information of memories under simulated life trajectories—and distills it into a query-side residual adapter, $s_\theta(q,m)=\cos(E(q),E(m))+\cos(E_\theta(q),E(m))$. The system is trained offline on synthetic (trigger, cue) pairs written by an LLM life simulator, and at runtime it plugs into existing vector memories with zero LLM calls, cutting answer context by roughly $20\times$ while setting a new state of the art on LoCoMo-Plus.

A long-term conversational assistant must recall the right memory at the right moment, yet the memory that matters most is often not similar to what the user says now. Current systems recover such associations by letting an LLM reason at write or read time, at a cost of hundreds to over a thousand LLM calls per memory bank and up to several thousand context tokens per query. We argue that association is a learnable relevance: the pointwise mutual information of memories under how human lives unfold. We introduce Madeleine, which learns amortized association: offline, an LLM life simulator writes simulated lives, whose cue-trigger pairs teach a query encoder a residual association on top of frozen similarity; online, it calls no LLM and plugs into any vector memory by replacing only the query encoder. On LoCoMo-Plus under the official protocol, Madeleine (I) reaches 66.6 when plugged into HyperMem, the highest among all systems evaluated under this protocol; (II) used alone, reaches the score of HyperMem as released (52.4 vs. 52.9) with zero LLM calls and about 1/21 of its answer context; and (III) lifts T-Mem by 26.2 points, significantly outperforms the same untrained backbone inside both systems, and leaves ordinary QA intact on the 4B backbone.
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cs.AI Keith J. Holyoak, Martin M. Monti · Oct 1, 2026

Holyoak and Monti tackle the question of AI consciousness by developing a causal framework for evidential analogy. Their central idea is that behavioral similarity to humans carries far less weight than shared causal mechanisms plausibly generating subjective experience. The paper argues that animals inherit strong analogical support from evolutionary and neurobiological homology, whereas contemporary AI—despite impressive performance—lacks established causal correspondences with human consciousness. This makes the work a careful attempt to redirect a debate often mired in hype toward principled, mechanism-first reasoning.

Who or what is conscious? Because subjective experience is directly accessible only in the first person, judgments about consciousness in other entities depend partly on analogy. Historically, such inferences have focused on nonhuman animals, but advances in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of conscious AI. Here we develop a causal framework for evaluating such evidential analogies. The key distinction is between similarities in factors plausibly involved in generating consciousness and similarities in downstream behavioural or cognitive effects. Our framework weights source-target similarity by causal relevance while allowing for unknown causes, disabling differences and alternative routes to consciousness. Applied to biological systems, it explains why analogical support generally weakens with increasing causal distance from humans. Applied to contemporary AI, it suggests that behavioural similarity provides only limited evidence for consciousness because relevant causal correspondences remain poorly established. The framework also clarifies what evidence would strengthen claims of artificial consciousness.
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stat.MLcs.AIcs.LG Hoang Phuc Hau Luu, Marcelo Hartmann, Zhongjian Wang · Oct 1, 2026

Many Bayesian inference problems involve implicit priors known only through samples, such as generative model outputs or historical ensembles. This paper proposes performing posterior sampling in the Gaussian source space of an improved MeanFlow (iMF) transport map, using parallel tempering with pCN or hybrid split-HMC updates. Its central theoretical advance is proving Wasserstein stability bounds for the implemented few-step posterior in terms of the joint population training loss, removing the need for vanishing ODE discretization error.

Bayesian inference increasingly uses informative but implicit priors represented only by samples, such as historical ensembles, simulator outputs, and pretrained generative models. The same computational problem appears in the test-time guidance task (generalized Bayes), where an explicit positive weight, e.g., an exponentiated reward, tilts an implicit prior. We develop a framework for source-space generalized Bayesian inference that combines inexpensive few-step prior transports with posterior stability guarantees. Specifically, we represent the prior using a one- or few-step improved MeanFlow (iMF) map and perform posterior sampling in its Gaussian source space. We establish Wasserstein error bounds between the exact and learned posteriors in terms of the joint population iMF and auxiliary-velocity loss, decomposed into training suboptimality and model-class approximation error. In the iMF source space, we adopt parallel tempering with preconditioned Crank-Nicolson updates and introduce a hybrid variant that incorporates split Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to improve sampling efficiency. Synthetic experiments show that the proposed framework can approximate posterior distributions accurately and efficiently, while CLIP-guided ImageNet experiments demonstrate its ability to steer a pretrained iMF image prior toward text-specified preferences.
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cs.AI Lachlan McGinness, Dan Pagendam, Robert Offner · Oct 1, 2026

The paper confronts the near-total absence of carbon accounting in AI research, reporting an automated review of over 5,000 NeurIPS 2025 papers that finds roughly 1% mention sustainability. Its core contribution is a suite of standardized metrics—centered on an exponential training-efficiency parameter $k$ and the "Smallest Model that Achieves the Job" (SMAJ) principle—plus a drop-in software tool, carbonbenchmark, to track emissions. This matters because it turns vague calls for "responsible AI" into concrete reporting requirements and a statistical framework for privileging efficiency over marginal accuracy gains.

As the capabilities and ubiquity of Large Language Models (LLMs) grow, so does their environmental footprint. Despite calls for responsible AI, the machine learning community lacks standardised practices for carbon accounting. Our automated literature review of the 5,285 papers accepted to NeurIPS 2025 reveals that reporting of environmental impact is nearly non-existent. To catalyse a shift toward sustainable AI, we define standardised sustainability metrics for evaluating model training efficiency, accompanied by simple heuristics to estimate the carbon cost of LLM inference. We implement these metrics in carbonbenchmark, a drop-in software solution for tracking and reporting emissions. Finally, to combat the pursuit of marginal accuracy gains at disproportionate environmental costs, we formalise the `Smallest Model that Achieves the Job' (SMAJ), a framework which challenges the field to prioritise computational efficiency and environmental accountability alongside traditional `State-of-the-Art' (SotA) accuracy.